November Tests set to confirm a seismic shift in pecking order

The World Rugby rankings are telling. The top two are from the north. Whether Ireland are superior to France is open to discussion but the results of recent times point to a European takeover.

England head coach Eddie Jones.

New Zealand and South Africa are the greatest nations in the history of rugby. In the sport’s long amateur history, these two set the standards. British & Irish Lions success in these countries was rated so highly because victories were so difficult, so rare.

Australia turned the dual dominance into a trinity, with World Cup wins in 1991 and 1999. For better or worse, that tournament defines the international game and of its nine editions to date, the “big three” have won eight. England are the northern hemisphere’s only victor, in 2003.

That could well change in the next 12 months. Europe holds the aces. The World Rugby rankings are telling. The top two are from the north. Whether Ireland are superior to France is open to discussion but the results of recent times point to a European takeover.

It would not surprise me to see those two sides even further ahead by the end of November. New Zealand are transitional, erratic, unstable – capable of exquisite rugby and solid set-piece work but uncertain in terms of selection and management. South Africa have barely begun their transition while Australia seem to be in a continual state of flux. They beat Scotland last week but were deeply unimpressive. Here’s a side who can hammer and be hammered by Argentina in the space of a week.

England are further along the road to France than the usual World Cup monopolists. In the next month the European teams have a golden opportunity to head into next year full of self-belief.

Throughout this century, the Six Nations has been the world’s best annual international tournament in terms of atmosphere. The Rugby Championship (and before that the Tri-Nations) was home to the elite rugby. Not any more.

In the Six Nations, France and Ireland performed at consistent levels of excellence.

France, the grand-slam winners, played with an intimidating and exciting mix of power, pace and sharp decision-making.

The recent Rugby Championship had little to no calm decision-making. There were some memorable matches, such as the 39-37 thriller between Australia and New Zealand. But amid all the thrills, there were abundant spills. It was like an international version of the Gallagher Premiership – entertaining for the supporters but worrying for international coaches. Games swayed one way then the other. There are few capable of taking the heat out of the match and squeezing the opposition as Ireland did so expertly in their series win in New Zealand.

It will be intriguing to see if Eddie Jones, the England head coach, will check the Premiership fun and games at Test level. As for our visitors, the evidence of the Rugby Championship suggests the southern hemisphere will struggle to leave their problems behind. South Africa were wholly unimpressive against Wales in the summer. Forget the Welsh victory against a weak team, it was the lack of conviction in South Africa’s two victories that was so shocking. They played with flashes of power in the Rugby Championship but they are struggling in the areas where they have until recently been so strong. There is a gaping hole from No 8 to No 10. The world champions have a front five to worry the world but are searching for guidance in the guts of the team.

New Zealand showed, by the end of the tournament, a more familiar cutting edge, with Will Jordan unleashed as the world’s best wing. Quiet for so long, he finally found a perfect fit as a free-running spirit when Ian Foster, the head coach, was forced through injuries into playing Beauden Barrett at fullback. His brother, Jordie, was a foil alongside Richie Mo’unga at inside centre. New Zealand finished the championship like the All Blacks of old. The same trio will play in the same positions in Cardiff on Saturday. Maybe Foster has taken advantage of an injury to reshape the backline. They offer a dangerous dimension.

However, as the scrappy win over Japan re-emphasised, New Zealand are generally as likely to be bad as they are good. It would be no shock to see them put together a one-off pyrotechnic display. Nor would it be a surprise to see them lose a couple of Tests.

Australia have an early win but no sort of performance against Scotland. France, who visited Japan with a weakened squad in June, could well be rusty on Saturday but an Australian victory would still constitute a shock.

For France, the one that matters is the clash with South Africa. The French, the potential champions, have a pack to stand up to the Springboks. When that happens the question is: what else do the South Africans have? England also possess forwards to give them more than a game (and have to answer their own questions about flexible thinking).

On Sunday, England face an Argentina side who this year beat New Zealand on Kiwi turf for the first time in their history. A week later they conceded a half-century of points. The South American side can play some splendid running rugby but their set piece remains a sorry shadow of the great Puma pack days.

If New Zealand have one of their now not infrequent bad days, Wales might even end that 32-match losing streak dating back to 1953. It’s not expected, neither is it impossible. The days of assumed New Zealand and southern supremacy are history.

The Times