Analysis: Worrying head-to-head history puts Oscar Piastri on backfoot against Lando Norris

Formula One world title leader Oscar Piastri has six events to put the pressure firmly back on Lando Norris with his McLaren teammate boasting a key historic advantage.

Australia’s Formula One world title leader Oscar Piastri has six events to put the pressure firmly back on Lando Norris with his McLaren teammate boasting a historic advantage over the closing events of the season.

Piastri leads Norris by just eight points at the halfway point of the F1 season, with racing resuming after a two-week break this weekend in Belgium for the final 12 races of the year.

Analysis of last year’s results shows that this next quarter of the season, taking in Belgium, Hungary, Netherlands, Monza, Azerbaijan and Singapore were Piastri’s finest stretch of success last year with two race wins, two runner up places and a third in a run that secured him 113 points.

Norris was still strong, with two race wins and two podiums, but pocketed only 105 points in that six event stretch.

But, it’s the final six events of the season that include Austin, Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi where Piastri is going to need to raise his game.

Last year Norris outpointed him 93 to 55 with the Australian securing just the single race podium in Qatar while Norris was on the podium in Mexico and won the finale in Abu Dhabi.

Crucially Norris was ahead of Piastri in every race event besides Qatar, giving him a mental edge if the pair are eyeballing each other in the title race going into those same events later this year.

Former world champion Jenson Button believes Norris has mentally turned the corner after his back-to-back race wins in Austria and Silverstone following the pair’s on-track collision in Canada.

“Austria was a really important weekend for Lando. I think if it went on any longer without Lando winning, mentally it’s very tough for a driver,” Button told the F1 website.

“Especially someone like Lando, who I think can be his own worst enemy at times – he puts a lot of pressure on himself. He’s unbelievably quick, but if he makes a tiny mistake, he really takes it to heart.

“He’s got to realise that we all make mistakes. It happens, it’s part of racing, and more often than not you lose rather than win.

“I love his personality, and I really think he’s super-quick.

“Oscar’s a very different personality, very level-headed. Nothing seems to faze him, and that makes him a very, very difficult competitor.”

If the 2024 history of Piastri and Norris is repeated, the 2025 title will come down to a final round showdown in Abu Dhabi - where Norris is the defending race champion.

Former British F1 star David Coulthard says this year’s title is likely to go down to the wire, the same way the infamous 2021 battle between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen came down to a final lap thriller.

“If it was half a World Championship, Oscar’s won. I don’t think anyone could say he hasn’t deserved to be leading – he was leading before (the McLarens) came together in Canada,” he told F1.com

“But if Lando turns it around in the second half of the season, he’s doing it against someone that’s a talented third year F1 driver.

“It’s a bit like 2021, where some people are still so vocal about what happened … only one driver could win.

“Both Max and Lewis Hamilton drove like World Champions that year, but only one of them could have the title. I think McLaren have handled it really well.

“I think both their drivers are on the tamer side of animal than the wilder side of animal, so that probably makes it a little bit easier.

“But this could also be their only chance to win a world title; we don’t know what 2026 brings, we don’t know what the future is, so you’ve got to seize the moment.

“That’s why I’m really impressed with how Oscar has stepped up this year. But Lando’s response over the last two races is showing his quality as well. I think it’s going to be one of those things where both of them deserve it, but only one can get it.”

]Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton’s duel went down to the last race in 2021. Experts see Piastri v Norris going the same way. Picture: Andrej Isakovic/AFP

While Button says the title is a “two-horse race”, Coulthard is refusing to rule out Red Bull’s four-time world champ Max Verstappen who is 69 points behind Piastri.

“One of the things I love about the sport – seeing exceptional drivers do exceptional things when others can’t or haven’t. So, you can’t rule Max out,” he said.

“I think for the championship, we all know it’s going to take an upgrade to unlock some performance. Where Red Bull are right now, and if they were frozen, it’s difficult to imagine that the second half of the season circuits are suddenly going to suit the Red Bull better than the first half.

“It will take an upgrade from Red Bull to give him the consistency. Are they capable of doing it? Absolutely. Have they done it before? Yes. Is Max exceptional? Absolutely.”