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THE LAST SAY: Tips, late mail for Randwick, Mornington and more

The latest tips, market movers, big bets … Ray Thomas brings you all the information you need to back a winner at all the key metro racetracks today.

Ray Thomas
Punters – Hold All Tickets Ep 32 – Final G1s of the season
6 min read
7:47AMApril 19, 2025

Team Hawkes has the opportunity to close out the Sydney autumn racing carnival by claiming the Group 1 double at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Hall of Fame trainer John Hawkes and his sons, Michael and Wayne, have boom sprinter Briasa as the $3.60 TAB Fixed Odds favourite for the $1.5 million All Aged Stakes (1400m).

The Hawkes stable also has Nepotism as the $4.20 favourite and stablemate Federalist at $19 for the $1 million Champagne Stakes.

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The All Aged Stakes, Sydney’s final Group 1 race of the season, has attracted an outstanding field with 12 individual Group 1 winners among the 14 starters.

Briasa, racing’s new “grey flash”, is attempting to become only the fourth to complete the TJ Smith Stakes-All Aged Stakes sprint double after Trapeze Artist (2018), Bentley Biscuit (2007) and Shamekha (2005).

But he has plenty of rivals including Godolphin’s gifted colt Broadsiding who is coming off a win in the Rosehill Guineas at 2000m and dropping back to 1400m for the All Aged, Jimmysstar is racing in career-best form and Joliestar is expected to bounce back to her best form.

Nepotism, the close relation to all-time great Black Caviar, won the Baillieu Handicap in good style last start and deserves Champagne Stakes favouritism but there is plenty of support for State Visit, Buffalo and Within The Law in particular.

There’s stakes racing all over the nation with the Mornington Cup the feature Victorian meeting, the Brisbane carnival is getting into full swing with the Ascot Handicap at Eagle Farm, Oakbank hosts the Onkaparinga Cup and Railway Stakes, and it’s WATC Derby Day at Perth’s Ascot racecourse.

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BE WARY: Royal Randwick’s rail has shifted out 6m from the 1000m to the winning post and 5m the remainder of the track after being 3m out last week. This is the third successive Saturday meeting at Randwick and the track is starting on a soft 6 but with a warm autumn day forecast, the track rating is likely to get to a soft 5 early in the afternoon. There is an expectation it will be advantageous to be away from the inside in the straight. Mornington’s track is in perfect condition for today’s meeting. The rail was out 8m two weeks ago when racing returned to Mornington after a two-month break but has been shifted back to the true position for today’s meeting and should provide a very fair racing surface.

• RAY & DUFF: All Aged Stakes tip ‘should be closer in the market’

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ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Warm, mostly sunny day with light winds and a forecast top temperature of 29c.
Track: Soft (6).
Rail: 6m out 1000m to winning post, 5m remainder.

MORNINGTON
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day with a slight chance of a shower or two and a forecast top temperature of 26c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: True.

EAGLE FARM
Weather: Warm, mostly sunny day with light winds and a forecast top temperature of 29c.
Track: Soft (5).
Rail: 3m out.

OAKBANK
Weather: Warm, cloudy day with a high chance of showers and a forecast top temperature of 29c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: True.

• Tips from the big bookies for All Aged Stakes Day

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ROYAL RANDWICK TIPS

BEST BET: CLEAN ENERGY (Race 4 No.1) defied the track bias to score a very impressive win in the Typhoon Tracy Stakes at the Valley then returned to Sydney for the PJ Bell Stakes two weeks ago where she was trapped three-wide without cover before finishing a close fourth. She was very game last start and even had the temerity to loom up as a winning hope in the final 100m, only to be beaten less than a half length on the line. Clean Energy has drawn perfectly in barrier two and is the one to beat.

THE NEXT BEST: SWIFTFALCON (Race 3 No.1) has been racing well without winning this autumn. He resumed with a second placing in the Hobartville Stakes behind Broadsiding, ran third in the Randwick Guineas to Linebacker and Broadsiding, then third in the Rosehill Guineas to Broadsiding and Aeliana, all very strong form races. Swiftfalcon then ran second to Evaporate in the Carbine Club Stakes last start when he was beaten by race tempo. The Team Hawkes-trained Swiftfalcon tends to settle back in the field and needs a few things to go his way but I like him back to 2000m. I’m relying on his class and superior acceleration to get the job done.

VALUE BET: XIDAKI (Race 9 No.10) is an underrated sprinter resuming in the Hall Mark Stakes. He usually sprints well fresh as he did first-up last spring when narrowly beaten by Ostraka in the Silver Eagle. The Peter Snowden-trained Xidaki trialled nicely at Warwick Farm recently when he closed strongly late for third in an 804m heat. Xidaki is primed to sprint well fresh and at $23 is terrific each way value.

THE WHISPER: STATE VISIT (Race 7 No.1) finished fast for a close second to Vinrock over 1400m in the Sires two weeks ago. This is the right form for the Champagne Stakes and 1600m should suit him. Although State Visit has drawn awkwardly on the outside of the 12-horse field, he needs galloping room anyway and has James McDonald in the saddle. There’s a growing confidence that State Visit will be hard to hold out in the Champagne Stakes.

• RANDWICK EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis

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MORNINGTON TIPS

BEST BET: BERKSHIRE BREEZE (Race 8 No.6) was third-up into the Roy Higgins Quality at 2600m and had a stirring duel with the promising Deakin before his close second last start. Berkshire Breeze should be at his peak now and that last start effort will tough him for the Mornington Cup. Good stayer who is always very competitive at this level. The one to beat.

NEXT BEST: PRESTIGE SNITZEL (Race 1 No.8) has shaped promisingly in both her starts at stakes level. She ran fourth on debut behind Military Tycoon in the Ottawa Stakes then worked to the line well for second to Recuperato in the Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes. She’s improving with racing and gets her chance in the Mornington Sires.

VALUE BET: SILENCIO PORFAVOR (Race 5 No.9) won his first two starts over 1000m running smart time last winter and at his only start since he was heavily backed but flopped at Warwick Farm in February. He has gone back to the trials where he was given a very easy time finishing seventh behind Spacewalk. Silencio Porfavor has drawn wide but he has plenty of natural speed and at around $6 he’s a value runner.

THE WHISPER: MOVIN OUT (Race 7 No.11) was placed in the NZ 1000 Guineas at Group 1 level earlier this season then was transferred to the Chris Waller stable. She produced an eye-catching effort at her Australian debut when charging home for fourth to Lazzura in the Phar Lap Stakes before she failed in the Vinery Stud Stakes won by Treasurethe Moment. Movin Out was disappointing last start but failed to stay the 2000m in the wet conditions. She’s much better suited back to 1600m and this is a much easier race.

• MORNINGTON EXPERT TIPS: Gilbert Gardiner’s race-by-race tips and analysis

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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

ROYAL RANDWICK
Race 1: Engine Room $8.50-$4.80-$4.60, Piraeus $8.50-$7.50
Race 2: Win The Day $6-$5.50, Rogue Moulin $11-$7.50, Syrian Star $15-$8.50, A Pound Of Salt $15-$9
Race 3: Swiftfalcon $2.30-$1.95-$1.90 with a bet of $2500 at $1.90, Sigiriya Rock $15-$12
Race 4: Lilac $3.60-$3.20, Snow In May $8-$7.50, Alabama Fox $51-21-$26
Race 5: Celui $15-$8-$5.50, Iron Man $15-$10, Moby Dick $15-$12
Race 6: New Endeavour $6-$4.80-$4.60, Encap $6-$5-$4.80, Klondike $11-$5.50-$7, Naval College $15-$10, Flying Bandit $11-$10-$8.50
Race 7: Within The Law $6-$5, State Visit $11-$6-$6.50, Buffalo $8-$7-$7.50 with a bet of $2000 e/w at $7/$2.40
Race 8: Jimmysstar $8-$7.50, Kimochi $15-$8
Race 9: Mazu $6-$4, Dragonstone $8-$5.50-$5, Ostraka $6-$5.50, Jedibeel $11-$8-$7
Race 10: Cool Jakey $6-$4.40, Tavi Time $8-$6, Green Fly $8-$6.50

• MARKET MOVERS: Country winner backed from $15 into $5.50

MORNINGTON
Race 1: Tornado Queen $6-$5-$4.40, Kaleo $5-$4.60, Diamond Gust $11-$8.50-$8, Optimal Moments $21-$11-$10, Casual Ghai $18-$11, Maya’s Ace $21-$14
Race 2: Sirius Statement $5.50-$4, Suances $10-$6
Race 3: Verdad $2.50-$2.40, Zweig $12-$11, Chihuly $19-$15, Reset The Jazz $26-$17
Race 4: Immediacy $3.80-$3-$2.90 with a bet of $2000 at $3.40, Golden Crusader $9-$5,

Savoir Faire $6.50-$6
Race 5: Chinqui $5.50-$5, Gracie’s Rain $6-$5.50, Silencio Porfavor $6.50-$5.50
Race 6: Vestas $4.60-$3.10-$2.80, Rose De Vellor $17-$11-$7
Race 7: Movin Out $6-$5.50-$4.80, Sneaky Sunrise $6.50-$6-$5, Express Guard $12-$11, Mary Eliza $12-$11-$7.50
Race 8: Berkshire Breeze $3.20-$2.70-$2.60 including a bet of $2940 at $2.70, Que Tempesta $7-$6, Night Endeavour $10-$7.50-$8, Young Werther $9-$8.50
Race 9: Hedged $5.50-$5, Oscar’s Fortune $8-$5.50, She Dances $8.50-$7, Regal Vow $9.50-$7
Race 10: Harry Got Styles $9-$7.50, Lulu Darling $15-$10

• BIG BETS: First-up roughie backed to win $100,000

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INTERSTATE MAIL
Eagle Farm Race 3 No.1 FLAG HALL
Eagle Farm Race 4 No.12 FLOOZIE
Oakbank Race 2 No.1 SIR NOW
Oakbank Race 3 No.2 TAHNEE TREASURE
Ascot Race 6 No.4 MACHINE GUN GRACIE
Ascot Race 8 No.7 TOROPA

• Eagle Farm expert tips: Graeme Carey keen on $11 runner

• Oakbank, Morphettville expert tips: $10 and $12 value plays

PROVINCIAL MAIL
Kembla Grange Race 4 No.13 JUST A JOURNEY
Kembla Grange Race 6 No.1 WEST HEAD

• Adam Sherry’s best bets for Kembla Grange on Saturday

#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/the-last-say-tips-late-mail-for-randwick-mornington-and-more/news-story/ab88d4aa3105a67fe6a8f9aa4189df86