Shayne O’Cass’s best bets and inside mail for Newcastle, Warren on Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Racenet form analyst Shayne O’Cass presents his best bets, inside mail and quaddie picks for Tuesday’s meetings at Newcastle and Warren.

  

Racenet form analyst Shayne O’Cass presents his best bets, inside mail and quaddie picks for Tuesday’s meetings at Newcastle and Warren.

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NEWCASTLE TIPS

BEST BET
Race 8 No.4 EXPIDO: Lightly-raced and loaded with talent. Huge win last start.

NEXT BEST
Race 7 No.12 ICEMAN: Been in the money for the longest time. Race and track suit here.

VALUE
Race 6 No.11 ZIELLE: Gets back and runs on; go well this grade.

LAY OF THE DAY
Race 7 No.2 COLD BREW: Gapped them last start but never easy to successfully follow up a maiden win

QUADDIE
Race 5: 4,5,11,13
Race 6: 3,4,11
Race 7: 2,3,4,12
Race 8: 4

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Molly Bourke has some good rides across the card (before scratchings).

NEWCASTLE INSIDE MAIL

RACE 1: Benchmark 64 (2200m)

COTO DE CAZA (1) was doing his best work late, as is his custom, when third to the handy Ant in a 2000m Benchmark 64 at Kembla on June 21. He is certainly fit enough for the 2200m; he just has to lump the 61.5kg. Speaking of big weights, MALBORK CASTLE (2)’s recent exploits have him afforded 60.5kg off a Maiden and Class 1 wins. WHETU (3) hasn’t won for a while but this is his style of race.

BET: COTO DE CAZA (1) to win.

RACE 2: Colts, Horses & Geldings Maiden Plate (1200m)

DEMMO DERMY (2) is a son of Yes Yes Yes; his third dam is Whisked, the mother of Tie The Knot who he actually looks a fair bit like! The Edward Cummings-trained 3YO makes his debut off three trials, all of them (good) placings. Seems to have ability. HILLIER (9), a $500,000 yearling, is a 2YO who could make it to a reasonably high grade next season. HARRY’S EVIDENCE (4) and FIREWORK (3) are major contenders more so given Hillier is far from a guaranteed arrival.

BET: DEMMO DERMY (2) each-way.

RACE 3: Fillies & Mares Maiden Plate (1200m)

SAY YES (4) is trained by Chris Waller who won an Everest with his sire, Yes Yes Yes. Still on breeding, this filly’s fourth dam is the brilliant little filly of the 1980s in Diamond Shower. The trials have been excellent; in fact she has everything bar the draw. Stablemate THE STARS (6) has drawn box 2 here and has the added advantage of race experience. Savabeel filly SAMARELLE (8) has trialled well. Lots to look forward to with her.

BET: SAY YES (4) to win or if scratched THE STARS (6) to win.

RACE 4: Maiden Plate (1400m)

KIKOIRA (2) was a $650,000 Magic Millions Yearling purchase. A son of Pierata, his dam was a stakes-winner. It’s a great family; Amelia’s Dream, etc, etc. Kikoira has had a bit of a stop-start opening to his career but his talent is patently obvious and there’s no rush. In fact he might not run here which leaves the gate open for SKIRMISH (14) who was good over 1100m on debut on the Kensington. How much better she might be at 1400m with a run under the belt on a bigger track? Lots.

BET: KIKOIRA (2) to win or is scratched SKIRMISH (14) to win.

RACE 5: Maiden Handicap (1600m)

TAMBELOA (5) has a wide draw and no jockey booked so appears doubtful. On top if he came on the strength of the debut. Edward Cummings saddles-up the very cleverly-named NORTH TERRACE (4) who is by Adelaide out of a mare called Party Hard. The horse has been trialling well and would likely be in the medals if he was to repeat his debut third at Hawkesbury from back in November. ZEEMA (13)’s three runs have all been better than the last one. Good signs for this.

BET: TAMBELOA (5) to win or if scratched ZEEMA (13) to place.

RACE 6: Fillies & Mares Benchmark 64 (1400m)

ZIELLE (11) was third at Canterbury on June 9 which she followed up with an 8th of 12 at Randwick and a 7th of 11 at Warwick Farm. Sounds crazy but you would have say both runs were good, well they certainly weren’t bad anyway. This is just the perfect race for her today. CLUEDO (4) made it a winning ‘debut’ for the Paul Snowden stable when she carried all of 60.5kg to win at Taree over 1400m on June 30. Aaron Bullock rode her then and sticks.

BET: ZIELLE (11) each-way, quinella 4,11, Daily Double 1st leg 11, 2nd leg 4.

RACE 7: Colts, Horses & Geldings Benchmark 64 (1400m)

ICEMAN (12) is a better horse than his record of 1 wins from 16 starts would attest. First off, he was third to Linebacker (thrashed but still third) early on and he (Iceman) is a Warwick Farm winner. He is nearly always running on. It’s just whether he beats himself (which he can do) or it is just a better horse on the day. Worth a punt at the odds. SMOKE ON THE WATER (4) was back in the winner’s stall last start. COSMIC LAD (3) and COLD BREW (2) are obviously in the mix.

BET: ICEMAN (12) each-way.

RACE 8: Class 1 Handicap (1200m)

EXPIDO (4) is, IMHO, maybe the most exciting horse racing at Newcastle. This Angela Davies-trained gelding is not the finished product yet which only enhances the merit of his two performances. Andrew Gibbons was lavish in his praise when Expido gapped them first-up! Eager to see how he goes here. TICKLE ME PINK (13) was just on a totally different trajectory than her rivals at Port Macquarie last start. Newcastle is going to suit her – big time. OAKFIELD NEPTUNE (6) won like a good horse on debut.

BET: EXPIDO (4) to win (best bet), exacta 4 to beat 13, box trifecta 4,6,8,13.

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WARREN TIPS

BEST BET
Race 1 No.2 MAJOR LIGHTNING: Easiest race he’s been in so far. The one to beat.

NEXT BEST
Race 7 No.5 PODCAST: Gave an honourable account of herself in a Highway last time

VALUE
Race 3 No.6 MISS RAPIDE: Sent out encouraging signs on debut that a win was close by.