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Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s tips, race-by-race analysis for 2025 The Lakes Day at Wyong on Saturday

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy’s analyse the 10-race card for The Lakes day at Wyong on Saturday

The Chris Waller-trained Invader Zim (purple, lime cap) is Ron Dufficy’s best bet of the dat at Wyong on Saturday. Picture: Jeremy Ng / Getty Images
The Chris Waller-trained Invader Zim (purple, lime cap) is Ron Dufficy’s best bet of the dat at Wyong on Saturday. Picture: Jeremy Ng / Getty Images

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy’s analyse the 10-race card for The Lakes day at Wyong on Saturday, presenting their race-by-race tips and analysis.

Ron Dufficy (left) and Shayne O'Cass.
Ron Dufficy (left) and Shayne O'Cass.

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DUFF’S TIPS

BEST BET
Race 6 No.2 INVADER ZIM

VALUE BET
Race 7 No.4 ZAPHOD

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R1: HERITAGE REAL ESTATE (1200m)

Ron Dufficy: Tricky, Shayno. It doesn’t look strong. I like a few out of the same trial. I think the well-bred BARBAROSSA (1) has been educated well and not extended in two trials and he appears to have something to offer. NAMASTE (3) won that trial and has to be included from the in-form Bjorn Baker stable. DAMIEN (2) has attracted some early support and should be closely monitored. KUJENGA (8) showed nice improvement second-up and is not out of it.

Shayne O’Cass: BARBAROSSA (1) for me too, Duff. I loved his trials, there looked to be plenty left in the looker. What about the pedigree! He’s a half to Black Opal winner Encryption, his first three dams all won Group 1s and I know it of going back a bit but his third dam, Camarena was an absolute swimmer. I thought the danger was the stablemate CHARLECOTTE MILL (6) and respecting NAMASTE (3).

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R2: MIDWAY HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: Even race. PUTT FOR DOUGH (9) is always around the mark in this grade. I think a softer track should pose no problems for him, so I am leaning his way. TRAFALGAR SQUARE (14) has no weight and is up sharply in distance but this stable has been effective doing this in the past. AIX EN PROVENCE (10) is trained here and is a big improver with form on the track. And MAGNATEAR (3) is likeable, just not convinced if it gets too wet with him.

O’Cass: If this was Newcastle, I would be declaring GENERAL SOHO (2). The Paul Perry-trained gelding has his 50 start today and if he wins Duff, it will be his tenth victory. I suspect that draw (2) means he can be a little bit closer than he sometimes is but I won’t tell Aaron Bullock how to ride him Duff, he is three from four on the son of now Turkey-based Epaulette. Plenty of chances; TRAFALGAR SQUARE (14) one of them on a ‘talent to weight ratio’.

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R3: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: Look, I have to go with the progressive RITZSUN (9), Shayno. He just got a touch too far back here first-up; 1100m suits better and he has to be hard to hold out. DUKE OF BRONTE (1) is going to look the winner for a long way. Rain wouldn’t be a problem for him, he’s got a big Heavy track win to his credit. REMEMBER JACK (2) strips fitter and has a good second-up record. And KREON (3) looks talented but I just would have preferred drier for him first-up.

O’Cass: That point you make about KREON (3) and the drier track is what concerns me. The fact that he is first-up is reason enough alone to pause but I just can’t get a handle on his actual wet track ability, or not, given the circumstances of his two Soft track runs. Whatever the case, we will find out today. WILBURY (6) has grown in stature since he went west to Brett Robb’s Dubbo HQ. We can’t forget that he beat his stablemate Gallant Star when he won his Highway and the recent trial was a ripper. RITZSUN (9) has to go in and if the rails is ‘on’ it’s surf’s up for DUKE OF BRONTE (1).

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R4: DOMELAND BENCHMARK 100 HCP (1350m)

Dufficy: EXCELLADUS (6) is on a back-up with a great third-up record and is set to lift dramatically here. The Victorian GRAND IMPACT (8) has no weight on his back and should get a cosy run on the speed. STRAIT ACER (3) and COASTWATCH (2) are both very well graded at this level and might be a little forgotten in the race.

O’Cass: It was interesting that Chris Waller dual accepted with GERIATRIX (4) on Wednesday, namely for this 1350m race and the $500,000 The Lakes over 1600m. Without knowing for sure Duff, I suspect Chris Waller wasn’t comfortable with barrier 14 in the feature which is understandable. This horse has got pretty good form back in New Zealand circa the 1400m trip and was runner-up in a Group 3 at Te Rapa so should hold his own here. I share your assessment, big time, when it comes to how well graded STRAIT ACER (3)and COASTWATCH (2) are here Duff. One was fourth in a Golden Eagle, the other one was third in a Golden Rose and has won stakes-races since.

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R5: WYONG EQUINE CLINIC HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: Have to go with the reliable DOLLAR MAGIC (3). She’s back to a suitable race at 1100m with a claim. She is sure to be fighting the finish out again. LLANDDWYN (7) is back in distance but he will appreciate a lot of pressure up front here and I think he will be strong late. BONITA QUEEN (6) is short enough but is going to give a great sight out in front. QUEEN OF THE MILE (4) is another horse suited back to 1100m, I am convinced of that.

O’Cass: LE MELODY (1) has some very troublesome numbers on rain affected going which I guess is a bit counterintuitive given she is by Your Song, that marvellous muddie. That aside, all her other numbers make her a very likeable gamble here. The main stat that stands out is that she has won four from six first-up and last time she resumed she split Our Kobison and Sebonack in a Benchmark 88 in town. Not much, if anything really, has trialled better on the Wyong card than BONITA QUEEN (6). This is a decent field and she has the widest gate so all kudos is owed to her if she can pull it off. AUDETTE (2) won on a Good 4 at Randwick on Boxing day but her CV says she is most productive on Soft and Heavy.

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R6: CENTRAL COAST COMMUNITY NEWS HCP (1300m)

Dufficy: Pretty keen on INVADER ZIM (2), Shayno. He was great behind an in-form horse (Disneck) there first-up. He has got the claim here, he is unbeaten second-up and he’s got great wet track form. So on paper, he should be right in the finish. HEADLEY GRANGE (3) is a tough type who was unlucky first-up and can bounce back. I am not giving up on AUGUST BLOOM (7). She was very flat second-up but one more chance for her. And Imposant did enough first-up and has experience on this Wyong track.

O’Cass: Duff, I am eager to see what the market does with IMPERIALIST (6) in the late betting today. To say that he has been hot and cold is an understatement. If anything, he has been mostly freezing but when he won, he did win the Listed Phoenix Stakes up in Queensland like a very, very good horse. Fast forward to the present and he appears in the ‘gear changes’ column here with the biggest gear change of them all – gelded. Make that gelded and trialled well since. I have gone down with the ‘S.S. AUGUST BLOOM (7)’ twice in a row now Duff. The only reason I might butter up again is that she is by my favourite wet-track sire in More Than Ready.

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R7: DE BORTOLI WINES HCP (2100m)

Dufficy: ZAPHOD (4) is an improving stayer heading in the right direction. He handles all conditions and gets in nicely after the claim. BULLETS HIGH (6) is his danger. He continues to run nice races without winning but is sure to be around the mark again. HOPEFUL (1) is a very good longshot. It was a much better run than what it appears on paper last start and he just loves any sting out of the track so I think he will be firming in the market. And INQUIRING MINDS (7) is up in class but keeps improving.

O’Cass: UNLIMITED (8) was on the receiving end of a very good ride by Josh Parr when he won at Randwick last Saturday. Under normal circumstances, you would think this is an ideal scenario; a Waller-trained horse on a seven day back-up, drawn well, acceptable weight, etc, etc. But having a look at his wet track record versus his good track record, I wonder if he will even show up if it gets Heavy? BULLETS HIGH (6) is famously consistent but infamously costly. With that said, the winners of the last two races where he placed were Be Real (in her preferred Heavy 10) and then Saltcoats who is looking indestructible of late. Like the run of your fancy ZAPHOD (4) might be open to, Duff.

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R8: WYONG $500,000 THE LAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: Tricky with a lot of wet track form here. I am with SPANGLER (9). He is third-up after a year off and is ready to do something here and represents good value. OSIPENKO (2) hasn’t won in a long while but at least he has put two good runs together now and he will appreciate a softer track for the first time in a long time. He has some nice form in some good races on wet tracks. ROBUSTO (1) is flying but paying the price with weight now. And REDBREAST (12) gets on-pace favours and might be hard to catch.

O’Cass: This is a throw at the stumps from the boundary Duff but I honestly think ALMANIA (8) is worth a (very) small each-way investment at $61/$12. Granted, it is a fact that he has had some structural issues and a lack of recent racing which could play against him but at the end of the day, he is a Canberra Cup winner and dual Manion Cup placegetter, fresh and hopefully fit enough for a mile first-up. There are three horses that have a Benchmark rating of 100 or more and two of them – ROBUSTO (1) and OSIPENKO (2) – are in red-hot form. If you told me WATERFORD (7)’s biggest win would be at Wyong, I wouldn’t believe it but this might fall into his hands late.

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R9: NBN NEWS HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: I like UNSTOPABULL (11), Shayno. I thought he was terrific coming from last winning second-up there. He likes it wet and only has to hold that form to prove very hard to hold out again. HUON (10) has well exposed form but he is very reliable and at the odds, he might be worth a spec. SISTERHOOD (13) arrives in Sydney third-up and ready to go and the wet suits her. SIR RAVANELLI (4) is a good old horse and he is well placed in a race like this off a win.

O’Cass: Same here. It was amazing (in hindsight) to think that UNSTOPABULL (11) was the outsider of that field when he won but it just goes to show how ‘good’ his five rivals were. Obviously not good enough as it turned out. I like the horse, I liked the win but maybe to just bring it back a touch, I wonder if Nash Rawiller’s ride was the determining factor? Speaking of good rides, Adam Hyeronimus will be credited with one if he can SALISANO (7) home first from that awkward draw. Gee the horse was good winning from the front at Canterbury BUT five of his wins were on Good tracks.

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R10: ROYAL HOTEL WYONG HCP (1350m)

Dufficy: Well, YORKSHIRE (4) picks himself. He is a really nice horse. He was great in a race that had more depth in it than this one, first-up, and is just ticking every single box. NOBLE CONQUEROR (11) surprised winning first-up. I can’t see him not improving again. STARMAN (14) will do his thing, catching the eye late. LIBERTY STATE (15) is a better horse than what we saw last start.

O’Cass: I was all over this French import VALIMI (3) when he made his Australian debut at Randwick on December 21. It seemed I was all alone because he drifted out to $31 and ran last I might add but, and without knowing, I think it was just too firm for him bearing in mind that his two wins in France were both on Soft tracks. Logic suggests, he can’t go as bad as that today and it can’t be forgotten that he was fifth in the French 1000 Guineas beaten no more than two-and-a-half lengths.

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/shayne-ocass-and-ron-dufficys-tips-racebyrace-analysis-for-2025-the-lakes-day-at-wyong-on-saturday/news-story/58cdde5b55e8a6f9778a7689f5047166