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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips for 2025 Tancred Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens

Ron Dufficy thinks punters can build a bank early on 2025 Tancred Stakes day courtesy of a filly who wasn’t far off Marhoona and Tempted last time out. Get Duff and Ray Thomas’ tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens.

Ray Thomas
Punters – Hold All Tickets Ep 29 – Last Group 1 of Melbourne Autumn
10 min read
9:45AMMarch 28, 2025.
Updated 10:12AMMarch 28, 2025

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy analyse all 10 races on 2025 Tancred Stakes Day at Rosehill Gardens, presenting their race-by-race tips and analysis plus Duff’s best value bets.

Duff has two value bets for Rosehill on Saturday, including a horse that was not far off Golden Slipper winner Marhoona and third placegetter Tempted last time out.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

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DUFF’S VALUE BETS
Race 2 No.5 TUPAKARA
Race 9 No.6 NEW ENDEAVOUR

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

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RACE 1: Midway Hcp (1300m)

Ron Dufficy: I’ve worked on a track that is anything from a soft 7 to a heavy 10. I don’t mind LET’S GO AGAIN (16) in the first. She had excuses there at Gosford sitting wide last start, she is genuine, has a touch of upside and we are getting a good price about her. GLOUNTHAUNE (7) had some support for the new stable last start and ran OK. Drawn well and ready to peak third-up from a spell. MAHOGANY GIRL (1) is an interesting mare with a lovely on-pace racing style and she is in the zone this preparation. THE EXTREME CAT (6) had no luck first-up and does handle the jar out of the track.

Ray Thomas: If the track is near heavy by the opener, I want to have something on ARTIEBETT (18) each way if she squeezes into the field. She ran really well finishing fast for third in a Rosehill 1200m Midway last start, the extra trip suits, she handles wet tracks and is at huge odds. MAHOGANY GIRL (1) has won three in succession including the Provincial Midway Championships Qualifier at Hawkesbury last start. She also gets through all types of going and although she has plenty of weight, she’s going to be thereabouts. I also have LET’S GO AGAIN (16) in my numbers for the reasons you mentioned, Ron, and while MONFELICITY (12) is first-up and needs further, she is a good wet-tracker.

• Expert tips and betting strategies: Tancred Stakes, Vinery Stud Stakes, Australian Cup

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RACE 2: Baillieu Hcp (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on the two fillies that have come out of the Reisling Stakes, which was the form for the Golden Slipper, in TUPAKARA (5) and SAVVY HALLIE (10). Tupakara was great that day, sitting wide, doing it tough and sticking on well behind Tempted and Marhoona when needing the run. From the good draw here she should get the right run and I’m leaning her way. Savvy Hallie is a very nice filly with the same form lines. She had far too much to do last start. NEPOTISM (2) is very likeable and it was hard to miss his run in the Todman. If he has come on from that he will be hard to beat. SANCTIFIED (3) has a lovely set-up getting to 1400m for the first time and is very fit.

Thomas: NEPOTISM (2), who is closely related to the great Black Caviar, ran a blinder on debut when finishing fast for a close third in the Todman Stakes behind Tentyris. He can only be improved by that experience and should go close. BARBAROSSA (11) is a big chance here. He ran into a dead end at Canterbury then again had no luck in the straight and should have finished much closer than eighth to Skyhook in the Pago Pago Stakes. He’s way over the odds. SANCTIFIED (3) got to the line hard when third in the Black Opal and TUPAKARA (5) is also an improver.

• V’landys considers stepping down from one of two major roles

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RACE 3: Tulloch Stakes (2000m)

Dufficy: I think FORMAT (11) is a tough customer. He was terrific running his rivals into the ground at Kembla last start and I know this race has more depth to it but I do think with that 2400m run under his belt he will be hard to run down. The timing is right for KING OF THUNDER (4), he’s on the up after beating the older horses last start but he has drawn awkwardly. CONFETTI GARDEN (5) comes from a stable that often produces an improving stayer at this time of year so I’m wary of him. GOLDEN CENTURY (2) has been toughened up with a New Zealand Derby placing and although he is still a maiden, he’s had a lot of excuses along the way.

Thomas: I’m with KING OF THUNDER (4). He was good second-up winning over 1900m here and is even better suited back against his own age. Promising young stayer and is the one to beat. FORMAT (11) was very impressive winning by a margin last start and that 2400m win will stand him in good stead coming back to 2000m with the likelihood of wet, testing track conditions. WAR RIBBON (12) had excuses when he dropped out in the Format race last start but go on his runaway win at Gosford at his previous run. The consistent POCKETING (8) has earned his chance at this level after his tough win against older horses at Randwick last start.

• Thunder warning as O’Shea and Charlton chase stakes double

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RACE 4: Neville Sellwood Stakes (2000m)

Dufficy: This looks a beautiful race for CEOLWULF (1) to get a win on the board before his Grand Final in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He did run second in the ATC Australian Derby last year on a heavy track and with even luck in running he should win. HEZASHOCKA (5) is a terrific wet-tracker who could easily lift second-up at 2000m but he might be a run short. PALMETTO (7) is fit, in good form and maps well. BOIS D’ARGENT (2) did enough chasing Pride Of Jenni last start and did win a Doomben Cup on a wet track last year.

Thomas: CEOLWULF (1) is an outstanding galloper and although he is burdened with 59.5kg, for a dual Group 1 winner he is not badly weighted 6.5kg over the limit. He is backing up after his excellent third in the George Ryder last week and looks classes above his rivals. PALMETTO (7) comes off his deserved Canberra Cup win and he does excel on wet tracks. MATUSALEM (11) just missed reeling in Palmetto last start but he doesn’t want it too wet. BOIS D’ARGENT (2) was chasing Pride Of Jenni first-up and did a good job to finish third. He will be fitter and invariably races well second-up from a spell.

• ‘Great race for him’: Ceolwulf to stamp QEII credentials

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RACE 5: Emancipation Stakes (1500m)

Dufficy: I think SCARLET OAK (4) is the big improver. She was above herself first-up when she ran well but was then disappointed in the Coolmore Classic. But all her good runs seem to be on the softer tracks and with James McDonald on her I’m happy to go her way. I think the fillies are the ones to beat including HARLEM QUEEN (14) who was beaten by the speed of the race first-up and with a set of blinkers on she is a dramatic improver. SNOW IN MAY (15) has the Autumn Glow, Lady Shenandoah form from last preparation and deserves plenty of respect. LAZZURA (7) was very good last start when she got the favours on the speed but could well get them again here.

Thomas: SCARLET OAK (4)’s three career wins have been on soft-heavy tracks and she is likely to get conditions to suit here. She was good first-up then struggled in the Coolmore Classic but was caught on the worst part of the track in the straight. This race sets up well for her. SNOW IN MAY (15) is a talented filly who comes off her Canberra Guineas win to take on the older mares. She’s been placed at Group 1 level over 1600m and will be strong late with her lightweight. LAZZURA (7) was brilliant in the Phar Lap Stakes and makes her own luck in running. PULCHRITUDINOUS (2) is resuming but is trialling well and she does have good wet track form.

• Rosehill Turf Talk: Stars align on a $12 J-Mac mount

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RACE 6: Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m)

Dufficy: The only concern I have with TREASURETHE MOMENT (1) is the likelihood of a heavy track, Ray. We don’t really know if she will handle it as she’s been untried on anything worse than a soft 6. But she’s a class filly who has got the right racing style to give herself every hope in a race that doesn’t have a lot of speed so it is hard to tip against her. I’m not sure MOVIN OUT (2) is wound up with the preparation she has had but it was an incredible performance from her in the Phar Lap Stakes first-up so if there is a danger I think it is her. I’m also wary of DECLICHY BOULEVARD (5) who had similar problems in the Phar Lap last start and they are both very nice fillies. BENAGIL (6) is the one with different form who might be the improver. There was no fluke about that win at Caulfield last start.

Thomas: TREASURETHE MOMENT (1) has swept all before her in Melbourne this season and takes a six-race winning streak to Rosehill. She has tactical speed, acceleration and stamina – she is the real deal. If she handles the wet track conditions, then bad luck is her only danger. VERONA ROSE (7) is unbeaten in three starts and her Kembla Grange Classic effort was outstanding. She will be charging home. MOVIN OUT (2)’s effort in the Phar Lap first-up was impossible to miss and POWERS OF OPAL (3) is out to her preferred distance range now.

• Clinton Payne’s Vinery Stud Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

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RACE 7: Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: There is plenty of speed here. OSTRAKA (7) comes out of the right form in Melbourne to return to his best here. He looked very good winning three straight last preparation. His soft form is great, too. ESPIONAGE (13) is a huge query. He won a Kindergarten Stakes on a heavy track, he’s had a couple of runs back from a long spell and he’s ready to go. UNCOMMON JAMES (3) backs up after a fantastic run in The Galaxy. MAZU (2) finally finds himself on a wet track and has to be seriously considered.

Thomas: ESPIONAGE (13) interests me here at each way odds. He didn’t have much go his way in the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap but this race sets up well from a good draw and lightweight. As you pointed out Ron, his best effort was on a very heavy track when he raced away with the Kindergarten Stakes last season. Talented colt ready to race well. MAZU (2) is going to be hard to beat. He’s got a superior wet track record and his two runs back have been good enough to suggest he will be in the finish here. GOLDEN MILE (4) and COAL CRUSHER (1) are ready to run improved races.

• ‘She should be 3/1 on’: Dubai Honour trainer’s Via Sistina compliment

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RACE 8: Tancred Stakes (2400m)

Dufficy: The more I look at this race, Ray, the more I think he’s a good thing, DUBAI HONOUR (1). He’s an experienced traveller, a world class horse who handles all conditions and it will take a very good horse to beat him. He won a Queen Elizabeth on a soft 7 and he’s been placed on heavy tracks. He’s a marvel and I have to go his way. VAUBAN (2) created a huge impression running outstanding sectionals for the new stable first-up and he has to be the danger. ARAPAHO (3) is primed for 2400m and has been close up behind the right horses in all three runs back from a spell. DUKE DE SESSA (4) has returned in great order and he’s a 2400m specialist. All these horses at the top of the order look hard to beat but Dubai Honour stands alone.

Thomas: I’m also with DUBAI HONOUR (1), Ron. He was brilliant winning the Ranvet Stakes and Queen Elizabeth Stakes here two years ago but is probably better suited at 2400m now as he showed last year. He enjoys wet tracks and his trainer has a remarkable Sydney record. VAUBAN (2) was so good first-up in the Sky High Stakes and will be better again now he is out in trip. DUKE DE SESSA (4) won the Caulfield Cup on a soft track last year and he’s returned to racing in great order this autumn. ARAPAHO (3) won this race two years ago but he seems to be going even better now and a wet track won’t bother him.

• Clinton Payne’s Tancred Stakes tips, runner-by-runner form analysis

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RACE 9: Doncaster Prelude (1500m)

Dufficy: The more I look at replays of the Ajax Stakes – NEW ENDEAVOUR (6)’s run behind winner Iowna Merc was unbelievable. He got shuffled back when the speed slowed then he finished off beautifully. I think he is going to be very hard to beat in a competitive race. AMENABLE (2) has the wet track form on the board and he did enough first-up. JUST FOLK (1) is a really good wet-tracker and commands respect. WILLAIDOW (4) will do his thing up front but he could be a touch vulnerable the last 50m.

Thomas: WILLAIDOW (4) led until the final few bounds in the Ajax Stakes and I think he can go one better here. He’s got the tactical speed to negate his wide barrier and position himself on the pace in a controlling position. He handles all track conditions, too. ENCAP (5) has a very good second-up record, he’s often underrated and always over the odds. DUCASSE (10) was a beaten favourite in the Ajax Stakes but he does handle wet tracks and is worth another chance. NEW ENDEAVOUR (6) did charge home late in the Ajax and should be improved.

• Shayne O’Cass’s Rosehill Saturday tips, race-by-race analysis

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RACE 10: HKJC World Pool Hcp (1400m)

Dufficy: I like a couple of stablemates at odds here who have very good wet track form and have trialled up well under a hold in RHAPSODY CHIC (9) and GREEN FLY (3). I’m leaning to Rhapsody Chic because of the price. I’m not so worried about his wide barrier later in the day, he has outstanding fresh form and is unbeaten on heavy tracks. Green Fly has McDonald and has had two trials so I’m respecting him. COOL JAKEY (8) is way up in grade but is untouchable on soft tracks and it could be bottomless by the last. ZOUATICA (1) has plenty of weight but he’s a tough customer and is three wins from three starts on heavy ground.

Thomas: WELL TIMED (13) loomed up to win at Hawkesbury but needed the run and just faded near the line to finish second when resuming. He’s a genuine horse, will be fitter, handles wet tracks and is a good each way value. RHAPSODY CHIC (9) has drawn a horror barrier but has a very good first-up record and with any luck in running, he will be competitive. BOJANGLES (11) is racing well but doesn’t want it too wet. ZOUATICA (1) is a “swimmer” so the wetter the better for him.

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-tips-for-2025-tancred-stakes-day-at-rosehill-gardens/news-story/3e80436adf57d25c897dd19c868dd81b