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Ray and Duff’s race-by-race tips, analysis for 2024 Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill: $10 value bet

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy debate the key chances on a bumper 10-race card for 2024 Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Ray Thomas
9 min read
4 hours ago
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Hold All Tickets Episode 10 – A weekend like no other!

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the key chances on a bumper 10-race card for 2024 Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

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DUFF’S TIPS

BEST BET
Race 2 No.3 ASGARDA

VALUE
Race 9 No.2 NONCONFORMIST

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R1: TAB HIGHWAY (1400m)

Ron Dufficy: Obviously a very tough race. I’m going with a bit of a guess here with VILLASAURUS (6). This stable usually over achieves when they come to town. I’ve liked his two Melbourne trials and I think he’s ready to go. ULYSSES BLUE (9) looks a stronger mare this preparation and she’s bred to like it a little further so she’s an improver. BRAVELY (2); it’s a typical Matt Dunn set-up fourth-up off a win with Nash on board and they invariably get a result in these Highways. MIGHTY MYRTLE (5) has a little bit of upside. I liked the way she powered through the line over an unsuitable distance winning first-up.

Ray Thomas: MIGHTY MYRTLE (5) charged home over 1000m at Canberra first-up to win narrowly but impressively. This is a tougher race and she gets to 1400m quickly but she’s won three straight and looks promising. Her stablemate EVERIDO (3) will be hard to beat. He comes out of a strong form race at Warwick Farm where he ran a close third and is well placed here. KING OF SPADES (1) was good first-up and is sure to improve and BRAVELY (2) won well at Ipswich, beating Miss Chenery who has since franked the form by winning at Doomben.

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R2: TAB HANDICAP (1300m)

Dufficy: I’ve very keen on ASGARDA (3). I feel she’s an underrated mare. She was fantastic charging through the line in the Kosciuszko after getting a mile back from that draw. I think she is one of the better bets of the day in a race like this. I think ALLAPERCANTO (7) could well be the danger. I don’t mind this mare nice and fresh and I liked her trial. I’m convinced she’s going to be strong late. PIPPIE BEACH (10) presents well fourth-up in a Saturday race now. Good winning strike-rate and can race closer from the draw. If GENTLY ROLLED (2) runs, this is a perfect race for her stepping up to the 1300m.

Thomas: PIPPIE BEACH (10) is genuine and from barrier two she is going to get all the favours. This is a very even race and Pippie Beach gets her chance. I agree with ASGARDA (3). She’s just a good mare racing in great form and her Kosciuszko run was a blinder. ELETTRICA (1) ran competitively first-up in a strong form race and she races well on her home track. GENTLY ROLLED (2) wasn’t beaten far when resuming and she always races well second-up from a spell.

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R3: CERRONE HCP (2000m)

Dufficy: I feel with a little bit of speed up front here, the horse with no weight – UNITED KINGDOM (11) – is much better suited on a bigger track here at 2000m. I’m leaning his way to beat his stablemate SEAFALL (9). She is another one of these improving The Autumn Sun mares who continues to get stronger and is suited by the tempo up front. STATE OF AMERICA (2) has looked really good winning his past two by big margins so he’s turned the corner. AMBASSADORIAL (5) will chip away up near the lead and prove hard to get past.

Thomas: STATE OF AMERICA (2) has struck form with a vengeance. He has put margins on his rivals in successive wins at Randwick and Warwick Farm and is full of confidence. He can win again. AMBASSADORIAL (5) also comes out of the midweeks where he has been racing well and the step up to 2000m will suit. SEAFALL (9) has attacked the line strongly to win successive midweek races and is not out of place in this grade. UNITED KINGDOM (11) is a little one-paced but is finally getting out to a more suitable distance range.

• ‘We don’t know his limits’: Trainer bullish on Lazzat’s Golden Eagle chances

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R4: KIA HANDICAP (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m leaning the way of IRON MAN (4). The form around him, that Willaidow form, I think is good enough for a race like this. I like him drawn in close, he finds the box seat and he’s hard to beat. FIRE STAR (5) will be hard enough to beat. Very authoritative winning his past two by big margins, just has to stretch it out an extra 100m here. SILENTSAR (7) meets Fire Star 3kg better off a two-and-a-half length defeat. He should get closer but I’m not sure if he gets past him though.

Thomas: SPANISH FOX (2) keeps winning and his odds keep getting longer. This is tougher than his last four starts where he has twice at the provincials and twice at the midweeks but he’s racing so well there is no reason he can’t keep the streak going. FIRE STAR (5) is another in career-best form after successive Warwick Farm wins where he has been dominant. SILENTSAR (7) is genuine and IRON MAN (4) looks well placed.

• Analysis: Why only six horses have the profile to win the Golden Eagle

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R5: FOUR PILLARS MIDWAY (1500m)

Dufficy: Throwing a dart at this. I ended up coming back to ALABAMA STATE (16) only because there was an over-reaction with the price and the barrier draw. It is a horror draw but from a better barrier than this, he would have been a much shorter price. Any luck in the run, I think he’s the up and coming horse in the race. EXTREME FREEDOM (15) is nice and fresh and the form around him is pretty good. I think he could represent some threat here. DANISH PRINCE (11) is a very good long shot. He’s third-up now, he loves the track and distance, he’ll power across from the outside draw and if they let him take up the lead here, he’s going to be hard to get past at big odds. HARLOW MIST (5) had a nice little trial since her first-up run. It looks a target race for this mare and she’s in a good stable.

Thomas: This is very open. TYMPANIST (12) is backing up after romping home at the Kensington midweeks. He’s very fit, in the zone, drawn perfectly in barrier four and I’m gambling he will cope with the 3kg penalty. ALABAMA STATE (16) is the best horse in the race but he has drawn off the track. With even luck in running, he’s the one to beat. ROLLING MAGIC (4) has struck a rich vein of form but has drawn the car park. PIRAEUS (9) hit the line well for third to Alabama State last start, he’s fitter for two runs from a spell and should go close.

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R6: TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: It might be TRISTATE (3)’s birthday party. I think his recent form at this track and distance is very good around the right horse and he has to be seriously considered. INFATUATION (5) is off a decent break but she has been under a nice hold in both trials, looking good, so I suspect she’s ready to win. I’m trusting the yard and market late with her. GITALONG (8) didn’t run 1400m last start so he’s had a freshen with blinkers back on and back to 1100m you will see a different horse. DOLLAR MAGIC (4) is just very genuine and doesn’t know how to run a bad race.

Thomas: DOLLAR MAGIC (4) raced on speed and held on gamely when resuming with a close third to the promising Pharari at Rosehill last start. As you said Ronnie, she never runs poorly and gets the run of the race from her inside draw. INFATUATION (5) was stakes-placed when last in work and her recent trials suggest she is primed to sprint well fresh. UZZIAH (2) led throughout and won easily when resuming. He likes his races spaced and has had a trial between runs. LEFT FIELD (15) goes well fresh, TRISTATE (3) and GITALONG (8) are strong chances.

• Shayne O’Cass’s tips, race-by-race analysis for Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill on Saturday

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R7: RUSSELL BALDING STAKES (1300m)

Dufficy: Hard to get away from BELLA NIPOTINA (3), Ray. She is just so likeable, she’s in career-best form, 1300m should suit her better and she’s just in the zone and hard to beat. Nothing has gone the way of PRIVATE EYE (1) with draws and track pattern at his three runs back so 1300m from an inner draw this week may bring out the best in him. KING OF SPARTA (2) was excellent in the Sydney Stakes travelling wide so a better draw suits him. He’s got a knockout chance. COAL CRUSHER (8) with the blinkers back on is ready to make a statement heading towards The Hunter and he will run boldly.

Thomas: BELLA NIPOTINA (3) sat wide and was still good enough to edge out Giga Kick in a thrilling finish to The Everest two weeks ago. She’s drawn well here and should get all the favours. Outstanding mare and is the one to beat. SUNSHINE IN PARIS (4) got too far back in The Everest but she ran on well and wasn’t beaten far, finishing fifth. She always races well on this track. I AM ME (12) won the Concorde Stakes and The Shorts then might have been disadvantaged on the rails in The Everest. She is worth another chance. PRIVATE EYE (1) can never be underestimated.

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R8: GOLDEN EAGLE (1500m)

Dufficy: I’m with the internationals. I’m not letting the barriers put me off ASCOLI PICENO (19), I think she can roll forward. She has been in some fast races in Japan and she looks the real deal to me. In saying that, how can you deny the unbeaten LAZZAT (12)? He’s been explosive winning six straight, in good hands and another one that can roll forward here. I think one of them might just win this race. JOLIESTAR (16) is the best of the locals. Coming out of the TAB Everest where it was just a bit short for her but she surged through the line. SOUTHPORT TYCOON (1), similarly, he just had one too many runs at 1200m last time. Considering he’s a Group 1 winner at the mile, he’s perfectly set up here.

Thomas: I understand why you have selected the international to run 1-2 as everyone is talking up ASCOLI PICENO (19) and LAZZAT (12). They might be too good but this is a high pressure on a tight Rosehill track which might not be to their liking. JOLIESTAR (16) is an outstanding mare, I know she will cope with the pressure and be strong late. I’ve put STEFI MAGNETICA (16) in for second for the same reasons. ENCAP (6) is very underrated and his last start effort was a super trial for this race. TOM KITTEN (3) is going to need some luck getting clear galloping room from his inside barrier but he will be charging home.

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R9: ROSEHILL GOLD CUP (2000m)

Dufficy: I think the value runner of the day is NONCONFORMIST (2) around the $10 mark. I think he’s primed third-up, 2000m and is sure to be charging home. I think he’s hard to beat. I didn’t like the tactics on HINGED (8) last start, she just got too far back. She did as much as she could have. I know there’s no recent wins but I thoroughly respect her in a race like this. HOO YA MAL (3), first-up at 2000m but this stable can do it. He does have a bit of quality. I don’t think FAWKNER PARK (1) has backed-up before but he did enough last week to say that he could lift off that performance.

Thomas: FAWKNER PARK (1) loomed up to win the Craven Plate last week but might have peaked on his run 100m out when fifth to Lindermann. He had five weeks between runs and on the back-up here, he will be better again. HINGED (8) finds it hard to win but she is always running on well. MEDATSU (14) is racing well and is a lightweight hope. NONCONFORMIST (2) does look set to peak here.

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R10: CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I’m tied to the hip with BATTLETON (1). He is just busting to win another race. I like him at 1500m from an inner draw. He drops in class but he just has to carry that 5.5kg here, I’m trusting he can. POPPIN’ CHAMPAGNE (5) shaped right up to the better grade running a big race at huge odds last start. If she reproduces that, she’s right in it. CAPTAIN FURAI (7) looked a very promising horse last prep so I’ll be forgiving of his first-up run and say he can lift. BULLETS HIGH (9) is another who did a good job winning first-up and there’s more to come from him.

Thomas: CAPTAIN FURAI (7) won three of his four starts in his debut preparation over winter then resumed and just missed a place at Kensington. He loomed up at the 200m but might have peaked on his run and will improve. Drawn well and I want to give him another chance. BULLETS HIGH (9) was terrific finishing fast to win first-up at Warwick Farm and rates highly here. MOUNTAIN TOP (11) is a mare racing very consistently.

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/ray-and-duffs-racebyrace-tips-analysis-for-2024-golden-eagle-day-at-rosehill-10-value-bet/news-story/c1498aa29491c6aacb683f94f44fecdb