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Randwick inside mail, tips: Don’t rule out a rough result in Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes at Royal Randwick

Trainer Gary Portelli has stable star Kimochi primed for another giant-killing performance in the Group 1 $3 million TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Ray Thomas
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10:41AMApril 04, 2025

Trainer Gary Portelli has stable star Kimochi primed for another giant-killing performance in the Group 1 $3 million TJ Smith Stakes (1200m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Kimochi is only a $26 chance in latest TAB Fixed Odds betting for the feature sprint but that is nothing unusual for Portelli’s outstanding but underrated mare.

Despite her excellent race record which includes a Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes triumph among her four career wins and 10 minor placings from 19 starts for nearly $2 million prizemoney, she remarkably has never started as a race favourite.

This doesn’t concern Portelli who can’t fault Kimochi going into the TJ Smith Stakes after she resumed with a typically competitive effort, finishing fast for second behind Jedibeel in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes in fast time a month ago.

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“We’ve kept her nice and fresh since and she’s ready for Saturday,’’ Portelli said.

“On Thursday morning, we didn’t do much with her (trackwork) because I figure we might try and bounce her out and have her a bit closer from that barrier (13). She’s in really good order and is there to run well.’’

• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Randwick on Saturday

Portelli also confirmed Encap had come through his fast-finishing fourth in Tuesday’s Doncaster Prelude and would take his place in the $4 million Doncaster Mile (1600m).

Encap is also at big odds of $34 for the Doncaster but the gelding is shaping as one of the better lightweight hopes in the big race.

“I’m not sure about him on the back-up but he didn’t have a hard run Tuesday and pulled up well,’’ Portelli said.

“This is a very open Doncaster and he has a chance, no doubt, with 51kg on his back and a good barrier (three).’’

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Portelli doesn’t have a huge team in work at his Warwick Farm stables so it’s commendable that he’s likely to take three horses to Randwick and all could be in Group 1 races.

The trainer is sweating on a scratching from the $2 million ATC Australian Derby (2400m) so his young stayer and first emergency, Flying Argento ($151), can gain a start.

“I hope he gets a run because it would be great for the owners to have a Derby runner,’’ Portelli said. “I realise he is big odds but he can stay all day, he’s in form and could run a bit of a race.’’

• Inside barrier fit for King in Australian Derby

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RANDWICK BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: North England $3.50-$3.40, King Of Pop $4.40-$4.20, Beskar $8-$5.50, Hay Street $26-$14, Sylph $26-$19, Stormland $26-$17
Race 2: Polymnia $3.60-$3.30, Dominetta $4.60-$4.40, Canny Queen $11-$9
Race 3: Alalcance $2.80-$2.60 including a $5000 bet at $2.70, Waltham $11-$8.50 after a $9000 bet at $8, Athabascan $11-$9
Race 4: Swiftfalcon $2.30-$1.85 including a $2000 bet at $2, Evaporate $3.60-$3.10
Race 5: Gallant Star $3.50-$3.20, Know Thyself $4.40-$3.90, Intervarsity $15-$7
Race 6: Bellazaine $11-$9, Prestige Forever $15-$11, Buffalo $26-$19
Race 7: Jimmysstar $11-$8.50, Headwall $51-$21
Race 8: Gringotts $8-$6.50, Royal Patronage $11-$10, Firestorm $11-$8
Race 9: Aeliana $3.80-$3 with a $6000 bet at $3.80, Willydoit $4.60-$3.60 after a wager of $3000 at $4.20
Race 10: More Territories $15-$14, Flying For Fun $26-$15

• Ray & Duff’s Randwick tips, analysis: ‘She has this race at her mercy’

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EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 1,2,3,7
Race 4: 1,2,5
Race 5: 1,7,9,14
Race 6: 1,2

QUADDIE
Race 7: 4,5,6,7
Race 8: 2,3,19,20
Race 9: 1,4,8,18
Race 10: 1,3,4

• Laurie Sainsbury’s $26 tip for The Championships at Royal Randwick

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PRICE CHECK

ALALCANCE and WALTHAM (Race 3) have both been well backed to win the Chairman’s Quality. Alalcance his firmed from $2.80 to $2.60 favouritism after a $5000 bet at $2.70 and Waltham $11-$8.50 after a $9000 bet at $8. SWIFTFALCON (Race 4) has been a big firmer in the Carbine Club Stakes coming in from $2.30 to $1.85 after a $2000 bet at $2. There’s been a significant move at big odds for HEADWALL (Race 7) in the TJ Smith Stakes with the sprinter firming from $51 to $21. In the Derby (Race 9), AELIANA is $3.80 into $3 after a $6,000 bet at $3.80 and WILLYDOIT is $4.60 to $3.60 after a wager of $3000 at $4.20.

• Randwick Turf Talk: ‘Everest slot holders already on the blower’

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TRIAL POINTERS

OVERPASS (Race 7) is usually dynamic first-up and his recent trial efforts suggest he primed for his return in the TJ Smith Stakes. Trainer Bjorn Baker’s brilliant sprinter held off Front Page in a Rosehill 900m trial then looked very sharp beating Shangri La Spring easily in a Hawkesbury heat. Overpass has seven top two finishes in eight first-up attempts, winning four of those races. He will be hard to catch.

LINEBACKER (Race 8) followed his Randwick Guineas win over Broadsiding with an impressive tick-over barrier trial effort at Warwick Farm two weeks ago. Linebacker settled third then went wide on the turn before descending on his rivals late to win the 1200m trial. He’s had four weeks between runs but he was given a solid test in his trial.

• Clinton Payne’s Doncaster Mile runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

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SECTIONAL STARS

SUNSHINE IN PARIS (Race 7) was in an awkward position on the turn and had to switch back towards the inside to find some galloping from before finishing fast for fourth behind Royal Patronage in the Canterbury Stakes. She didn’t have the smoothest of runs but still reeled off a fast final 600m sectional of 33.16s. Brilliant mare with a powerful finishing surge as she demonstrated to win the Group 1 Champions Sprint last spring.

AELIANA (Race 9) was held up for a run in the straight before unleashing a late surge to just miss running down Broadsiding in the Rosehill Guineas. Aeliana sprinted her final 600m in 33.78s with a closing 200m split of 11.21s – both sectionals clearly the best of the race.

• Clinton Payne’s Australian Derby runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

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BEST BET

SWIFTFALCON (Race 4) is second emergency for the Doncaster Mile but is also entered for the Carbine Club Stakes where he is very well placed at the weights only 3kg over the limit. The Team Hawkes-trained Swiftfalcon has been racing in great form without winning this autumn with placings in the Hobartville Stakes, Randwick Guineas and Rosehill Guineas. Swiftfalcon tends to settle back in the field but he does have a brilliant finishing burst and with even luck he’s clearly the horse to beat in the Carbine Club Stakes.

• Racing Confidential: Why the Doncaster deserves Grand Slam status

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VALUE

HEADWALL (Race 7) is capable of an upset in the TJ Smith Stakes. He won The Warra at Kembla Grange breaking 56s for the 1000m late last year and has returned in even better form. Headwall was the unlucky runner when fourth in the Oakleigh Plate then chased Joliestar throughout in the Newmarket Handicap before finishing second. He’s been kept fresh since but looked in exceptional order closing fast for second in a Randwick barrier trial last week. Headwall is great value at $21.

• Jett Hatton’s TJ Smith Stakes runner-by-runner form analysis and tips

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/randwick-inside-mail-tips-dont-rule-out-a-rough-result-in-group-1-tj-smith-stakes-at-royal-randwick/news-story/ef81bb4f2ef3d0c9de6b98b0d89d4e0b