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Queen Elizabeth Stakes verdict: Why the mares will reign

Everything is pointing to a mares trifecta in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Here are Ray Thomas’ tips for the big race, plus his best roughie.

Ray Thomas
Tips to find The 2024 Queen Elizabeth Winner!
4 min read
10:12AMApril 11, 2024.
Updated 10:55AMApril 11, 2024

Everything is pointing to a mares trifecta in the $5 million Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Here is Ray Thomas’ verdict for the big race (field and form here).

THE BETTING
$2.20 Via Sistina
$4 Pride Of Jenni
$8.50 Cascadian
$10 Mr Brightside
$11 Place Du Carrousel
$17 Ceolwulf
$21 Buckaroo
$23 Kovalica
$26 Lindermann
$101 Zeyrek

THE HISTORY
• VRC Australian Cup-Queen Elizabeth Stks: Durbridge (1994), Veandercross (1993), Ming Dynasty (1978), Ngawyni (1977), Gay Icarus (1971)
• George Ryder Stks-Queen Elizabeth Stks: Winx (2017/2018/2019) Lonhro (2003)
• Doncaster Mile-Queen Elizabeth Stks: More Joyous (2012), Iko (1980)
• Ranvet Stks-Queen Elizabeth Stks: Dubai Honour (2023), Addeybb (2020), Desert War (2007), Eremein (2006), Grand Armee (2005), Veandercross (1993)
• Tancred Stks-Queen Elizabeth Stks: Eremein (2006), Might And Power (1998), Sydeston (1990), Our Poetic Prince (1989)
• Queen Elizabeth Stks-Cox Plate: Winx (2017-18), Might and Power (1998), Rising Prince (1985), Battle Heights (1974), Tulloch (1960)

KEY LEAD-UP — RANVET STAKES, Rosehill Gardens, March 23
Via Sistina gave them all a start in the Ranvet and reeled them in very quickly in the straight to win brilliantly. Her closing sectionals were off the charts. Place Du Carrousel made an excellent Australian debut for second and can only improve. Buckaroo was stuck near the inside where you didn’t want to be on Slipper Day but still ran on well for third.

KEY LEAD-UP — AUSTRALIAN CUP, Flemington, March 30

Cascadian scored successive Australian Cup wins with a barnstorming effort. He appreciated the fast temp and ambushed gallant front-runner Pride Of Jenni near the line. The second placegetter was very game and responsible for a near track-record time. Mr Brightside was close enough at the top of the straight but faded for fifth.

FAVOURITES
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes has been a good race for favourites with 10 winning since 2000 including Winx’s hat-trick of successes – 2017 at $1.12, 2018 at $1.24 and 2019 at $1.06. Lonhro won at $1.85 in 2003, and Grand Armee won at the same odds in 2005. They were also involved in a major upset in 2004 when Lonhro started at $1.26 but couldn’t catch Grand Armee ($7.50). Sarrera, a $51 bolter in 2008, is the longest priced winner this century with Think It Over at $41 when he upset Zaaki two years ago.

TRAINERS
Tommy Smith holds the training record with 11 wins including Tulloch’s three triumphs in 1958, 1960-61. Chris Waller has now trained five Queen Elizabeth Stakes winners featuring Winx’s hat-trick in 2017-18-19. Gai Waterhouse has trained four winners of this race, most recently with More Joyous in 2012.

JOCKEYS
George Moore still holds the Queen Elizabeth Stakes riding record with six wins, one more than the recently retired Damien Oliver. Hugh Bowman, rider of Winx, has won the race four times, Englishman Tom Marquand and Nash Rawiller have three wins each.

BARRIERS

The Randwick 2000m can be a tricky start with a run of about 400m to the first turn but the importance of the barrier draw has been reduced with only 11 runners and the expected fast race tempo. The most successful starting position in the last 30 years has been barrier four with six wins while barrier 10, where Mr Brightside has drawn, has not produced a winner since Danendri in 1997.

SPEED MAP
With Pride Of Jenni in the field, rival jockeys know to expect – a genuine tempo with the race sure to be a test of speed and stamina. Pride Of Jenni will lead clearly but who is going to be her immediate chaser? Lindermann has the versatility to settle on speed, as he did when winning the Sky High Stakes so he could take the field up to Pride Of Jenni. The backmarkers will get their chance.

• Get Racenet’s detailed speedmap here and delve into key sectional data from each horse’s lead up run here.

SECTIONALS
Via Sistina settled back at the rear of the six-horse Ranvet Stakes field before reeling off a stunning final 600m in 32.81s to win the 2000m weight-for-age race. No horse ran a faster closing sectional that Via Sistina at this meeting, not even the Group 1 sprinters in The Galaxy. Buckaroo was caught on the worst part of the track near the inside rail in the Ranvet but still worked home well in a fast 33.08s to finish third.

THE VERDICT IS … VIA SISTINA

Winner of the prestigious Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland, Via Sistina was simply outstanding at her Australian debut, sweeping from last to win the Ranvet Stakes easily. She settled back in the field off a slow tempo but ripped home with a brilliant final 600m to win easily.

The Chris Waller-trained Via Sistina made it look so easily in the Ranvet, seemingly winning with plenty in reserve. This race will be run at a vastly different tempo but if she relaxes during the race like she did last start, then her powers of acceleration should net her another Group 1 win and lead her a mares trifecta.

Pride Of Jenni will get her rivals off the bit and chasing a long way out. She’s as tough as they come and her dashing frontrunning race pattern will ensure this is an exciting context.

Place Du Carrousel also impressed at her Australian debut, sprinting strongly from the turn to claim second in the Ranvet Stakes although Via Sistina came from behind her and accelerated clear near the line. Place Du Carrousel prefers it further so the expected brutal race tempo will suit her.

Cascadian is a rising 10-year-old but retains his zest for racing as he proved winning the Australian Cup last start. He charged home to collar Pride Of Jenni near the line last start and will be finishing fast again. Mr Brightside excels at Randwick where he has won two Doncaster Miles and finished second in the King Charles III Stakes at his only three starts on the track. It is expected he will be ridden conservatively early from his wide barrier but he’s so genuine and must be included among the main chances.

Lindermann looked more like his old self toying with his rivals in the Sky High Stakes. He had excuses from the wide in the Doncaster Mile last week and is the value runner. Buckaroo ran very well in the Ranvet behind Via Sistina but then got back in the Tancred Stakes before running on only fairly to finish fifth. He’s got the ability to run strong closing sectionals. The three-year-old Ceolwulf is very fit and this race sets up well for him. He will be charging home.

RAY’S TIPS
1 VIA SISTINA
2 Pride Of Jenni
3 Place Du Carrousel
4 Cascadian

BEST ROUGHIE
Lindermann

Read related topics:Queen Elizabeth II

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/queen-elizabeth-stakes-verdict-why-the-mares-will-reign/news-story/c2a51d1e065634b3bae38734221c7f94