Melbourne Cup: How to pick a winner in the great race

Want to beat the bookies? Here’s one expert's guide to kissing your ticket this afternoon rather than ripping the bloody thing up.

Daniel O’Sullivan reckons he finds the Melbourne Cup winner ‘most years’.

Punters have been burning cash on the Melbourne Cup since 17 starters lined up at Flemington racecourse for the inaugural race back in 1861.

One bolted before the start, two died before the finish (five days after news that Burke and Wills had carked it on their own marathon journey), and a Sydney outsider called Archer ignored the form book of Mormon, the heavy favourite, to win by six lengths.

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One hundred and fifty seven years later, it’s as if Archer, who hoofed it to Melbourne by steamboat, set a theme that would last always and forever.

Phar Lap saluted at 8/11 ($1.72) in 1930 but, as time has marched on, just 35 favourites have won – that’s less than 25 per cent. A whole lot of cash has gone up in smoke.

How to beat the bookies? There must be a smart way to go about this. Daniel O’Sullivan, from The Rating Bureau and Betsmart.racing, spends more time on this stuff than you or I.

He reckons he finds the winner “most years”. Here’s his guide to kissing your ticket this afternoon rather than wanting to rip the bloody thing up.

1. Get a core group of chances

“History has been very reliable in helping to identify the types of horses that have a genuine chance and those that should be ruled out,” O’Sullivan says. “Once I have my core group of chances that meet this criteria (which is typically seven to eight horses each year) then I’m doing further analysis to separate and rank them.”

 

2. Respect the betting market

“While the lure is always there to chase a longshot in the Melbourne Cup, history points to horses up to $20 being those you should focus on,” he says. “Ten of the last 13 winners (77 per cent) have been $20 or less and they’ve made up only 28 per cent of the total runners.”

3. Don’t focus on barriers

“They get plenty of attention in the media, but the reality is that inside barriers aren’t nearly the advantage they’re made out to be and wider barriers aren’t a massive disadvantage,” he says. “Well-respected chances in the market (up to $20) that draw in the outside third of the field have a very respectable record. Almandin won in 2016 from barrier 17 while Shocking won from barrier 21 in 2009. Since 2005, we’ve only seen one winner from 39 runners draw barrier one to three. It’s all small sample evidence but the key point is never let the barrier put you off a horse you like in the Cup – or any other race, for that matter.”

4. Find an international with a lead-up run in Australia

“This is perhaps the most powerful of all Melbourne Cup profiles,” he says. “Firstly, if we look at internationals that start up to $20 in the race that come straight to the race off an overseas run, we have one winner from 18 runners and four placegetters (Rekindling won last year). Those internationals that started up to $20 and had a lead-up run in Australia have had 20 runners for four winners and seven placings. If you backed all of those 20 runners and had four winners you are a long way in front (plus-65 per cent on turnover).

Punters line up to bet at Flemington racecourse. Picture: Andrew Tauber

5. Don’t be worried about proven form at the distance

“Too much is made about form at or close to the distance, and the risk of horses that have been tried at something similar to the 3200m trip. If we look at the last 13 editions of the race since 2005, it’s evenly split. Six winners had not raced beyond 2400m-2500m before winning the Melbourne Cup (Almandin, Prince of Penzance, Green Moon, Shocking, Viewed, and Efficient). Six winners had previous form at 3000m-plus (Protectionist, Fiorente, Dunaden, Americain, Delta Blues, and Makybe Diva). One winner, Rekindling, was somewhere in the middle.”

6. A good lead-up run is essential

“History and the better percentages are well and truly with horses that produce a good run in their final stage before the Melbourne Cup,” he says. “A placing or eye-catching close-up run just outside of the placings is the minimum standard.”

Which leaves us, where?

O’Sullivan says: “Horses this year that meet this criteria are Yucutan (will definitely start below $20), Best Solution (will definitely start below $20), The Cliffsofmoher (should start below $20), and A Prince of Arran (may start above $20).”