Melbourne Cup 2020 expert tips, form guide, field and start time
The field for the 2020 Melbourne Cup has been confirmed. Here’s every piece of information you need in the lead-up to Tuesday’s big race.
When Rekindling won the 2017 Melbourne Cup he was a lightly-weighted, lightly-raced northern hemisphere three-year-old. Cross Counter was exactly the same when he won a year later. And when Il Paradiso was a slashing third last year, a formula for Melbourne Cup success was locked in.
Tiger Moth, currently the $8 favourite, fits that bill this time around as the world’s most successful trainer Aidan O’Brien attempts to win his first Melbourne Cup after many attempts. However, he is attempting the 3200m for the first time, it’s only his fifth lifetime start and no horse has won from barrier 23 since Van Der Hum in 1976.
That’s a lot going against him — enough to look elsewhere.
We have seen some very well-credentialed European horses running in the Melbourne Cup before but this is the first time an Epsom Derby winner has targeted the race. Anthony Van Dyck won at Epsom, then saluted in France before finishing second to Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup after charging home late. What’s against him? He’ll need to be the first horse to carry more than 56kg to victory since Makybe Diva.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Warning outrun his odds here. True, he has only won two of his 16 races but they have both been at Flemington and one was the Victoria Derby. I think he likes a test of stamina and he needs the long straight to get fully wound up.
In 2007 Efficient won the Melbourne Cup carrying 1.5kg more than Warning will and he similarly had not won a race since winning the Derby the year before. Warning is my pick from Miami Bound — the best of Danny O’Brien’s three runners — and Caulfield Cup placegetter The Chosen One.
■ The Ten Network’s coverage of Lexus Melbourne Cup Day begins at 10am on Tuesday.
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2020 MELBOURNE CUP FIELD
Flemington Race 7, 3pm — Tuesday, November 3
Distance: 3200m
Prizemoney: $7,750,000 — 1st $4,400,000 plus trophies; 2nd $1,100,000, 3rd $550,000, 4th $350,000, 5th $230,000, 6th-10th $160,000
1 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (Barrier 3) Jockey: Hugh Bowman; Trainer: Aidan O’Brien 58.5kg
2 AVILIUS (10) John Allen, James Cummings 57kg
3 VOW AND DECLARE (4) Jamie Mott, Danny O’Brien 57kg
4 MASTER OF REALITY (11) Ben Melham, Joseph O’Brien 56kg
5 SIR DRAGONET (14) Glen Boss, Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 55.5kg
6 TWILIGHT PAYMENT (12) Jye McNeil, Joseph O’Brien 55.5kg
7 VERRY ELLEEGANT (15) Mark Zahra, Chris Waller 55.5kg
8 MUSTAJEER (2) Michael Rodd, Kris Lees 55kg
9 STRATUM ALBION (9) Jordan Childs, Willie Mullins 55kg
10 DASHING WILLOUGHBY (19) Michael Walker, Andrew Balding 54.5kg
11 FINCHE (6) James McDonald, Chris Waller 54.5kg
12 PRINCE OF ARRAN (1) Jamie Kah, Charlie Fellowes 54.5kg
13 SURPRISE BABY (7) Craig Williams, Paul Preusker 54.5kg
14 KING OF LEOGRANCE (18) Damian Lane, Danny O’Brien 53.5kg
15 RUSSIAN CAMELOT (16) Damien Oliver, Danny O’Brien 53.5kg
16 STEEL PRINCE (21) William Pike, Anthony & Sam Freedman 53.5kg
17 THE CHOSEN ONE (5) Daniel Stackhouse, Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman 53.5kg
18 ASHRUN (24) Declan Bates, Andreas Wohler 53kg
19 WARNING (8) Luke Currie, Anthony & Sam Freedman 53kg
20 ETAH JAMES (22) Billy Egan, Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 52.5kg
21 TIGER MOTH (23) Kerrin McEvoy, Aidan O’Brien 52.5kg
22 OCEANEX (17) Dean Yendall, Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr 51.5kg
23 MIAMI BOUND (13) Daniel Moor, Danny O’Brien 51kg
24 PERSAN (20) Michael Dee, Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 51kg
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2020 MELBOURNE CUP TIPS
FRANCESCA CUMANI
19 WARNING
23 Miami Bound
17 The Chosen One
Best roughie: 9 Stratum Albion
BRENDAN CORMICK
21 TIGER MOTH
12 Prince of Arran
1 Anthony Van Dyck
Best roughie: 6 Twilight Payment
COURTNEY WALSH
4 MASTER OF REALITY
13 Surprise Baby
1 Anthony Van Dyck
Best roughie: 9 Stratum Albion
WILL SWANTON
13 SURPRISE BABY
21 Tiger Moth
5 Sir Dragonet
Best roughie: 11 Finche
WALLY MASON
12 PRINCE OF ARRAN
1 Anthony Van Dyck
15 Russian Camelot
Best roughie: 19 Warning
TONY ARROLD
5 SIR DRAGONET
15 Russian Camelot
21 Tiger Moth
Best roughie: 23 Miami Bound
STEPHEN BRASSEL
21 TIGER MOTH
5 Sir Dragonet
15 Russian Camelot
1 Anthony Van Dyck
Best roughie: 23 Miami Bound
BRAD WATERS
12 PRINCE OF ARRAN
1 Anthony Van Dyck
21 Tiger Moth
9 Stratum Albion
Best roughie: 16 Steel Prince
RAY THOMAS
11 FINCHE
12 Prince of Arran
21 Tiger Moth
7 Verry Elleegant
Best roughie: 24 Persan
GILBERT GARDINER
21 TIGER MOTH
1 Anthony Van Dyck
12 Prince Of Arran
13 Surprise Baby
Best roughie: 24 Persan
SIMON MOY
12 PRINCE OF ARRAN
15 Russian Camelot
|1 Anthony Van Dyck
11 Finche
Best roughie: Persan
DANIEL SANKEY
11 FINCHE
12 Prince of Arran
15 Russian Camelot
5 Sir Dragonet
Best roughie: 4 Master of Reality
■ Who’s your tip for the race that stops the nation? Tell us in the comments section at the bottom of the page and compare with your fellow readers.
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MELBOURNE CUP FORM GUIDE
1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK
5yo horse Galileo/Believe’n’succeed
18 starts: 6 wins, 4 seconds, 3 thirds
Prizemoney: $4,090,099
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Weight: 58.5kg
Barrier: 3
FORM: Always handy before scoring sht nk win of 6 (5) $4.80 58.5 Stradivarius, Nagano Gold 2400m Fr - Longchamp G2 Prix Foy Good Sept 13. Rattled home from well back when sht nk 2nd of 18 (17) $6.00 58.5 Verry Elleegant 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: We have seen very well credentialed European horses running in the Melbourne Cup before but this is the first time an Epsom Derby winner has targeted this race. He has a huge amount of class and ran a very good race to finish second in the Caulfield Cup to Verry Elleegant under top weight and a wide barrier. Can he be the first horse to carry more than 56kg to victory since Maybe Diva?
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: All class and unlucky not to be shooting for the Caulfield-Melbourne Cups double. Was brilliant behind Verry Elleegant at Caulfield despite wide draw and unsuitable give in the ground. Far better on dry surfaces and not for the weight would be a moral to win. Definite place chance.
BETTING: $9.50 (TAB fixed odds market, odds correct at 5am Tuesday, November 3. Check official odds here)
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2. AVILIUS
7yo gelding Pivotal/Alessandria
32 starts: 11 wins, 3 seconds, 4 thirds
Prizemoney: $3,430,835
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: John Allen
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 10
FORM: Stuck to his guns when 2 len 2nd of 8 (5) $6.50 59.0 Kolding 2000m R’wick G2 Hill Stks Good(4) Oct 3. Held up near the 400m before finishing 2-1/2 len 6th of 18 (13) $31.00 57.0 Verry Elleegant 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: This Godolphin galloper finished down the field in the Melbourne Cup of 2018 when carrying 54.5kg and bypassed the race last year. He now has 57kg, has not won for over a year despite some good placings and is a suspect stayer at 3200m.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Caulfield Cup run had merit despite finishing sixth. Likes give in the ground and better suited around 2400m. Has not won since the 2019 George Main Stakes (1600m).
BETTING: $51
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2. VOW AND DECLARE
5yo gelding Declaration of War/Geblitz
19 starts: 4 wins, 3 seconds, 3 thirds
Prizemoney: $5,875,930
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Jamie Mott
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 4
FORM: Wasn’t far away when 2-3/4 len 12th of 15 (10) $26.00 57.5 Verry Elleegant 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stks Good(3) Oct 3. Never threatened when 8-3/4 len 15th of 18 (14) $41.00 57.0 Verry Elleegant 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Can the reigning Melbourne Cup winner be only the fifth horse in the history of the race to win it for a second time? He was successful last year when only carrying 52kg but his performances leading into this year’s renewal don’t suggest he can carry an extra 5kg to victory this time around.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Everything went right for him last year, able to get across from the wide draw to dictate the speed and kick strongly, and he duly saluted. Has a big weight and not going anywhere near as well as last year.
BETTING: $51
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4. MASTER OF REALITY
6yo gelding Frankel/L’Ancresse
17 starts: 4 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds
Prizemoney: $691,100
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Ben Melham
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 11
FORM: Just missed when sht hd 2nd of 8 (9) $4.60 62.0 Delphi 2816m Ire - Curragh G3 Irish St Leger Good Aug 14. Cleared away for 3-1/2 len win of 8 (6) $1.50F 60.5 Barbados, Rakan 2816m Ire - Down Royal LR Her Majesty’s Soft Sept 4.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Since 1990 only Brew and Fiorente have won the Melbourne Cup after being beaten in it the year before, suggesting it’s not an easy feat. 27-year-old Melbourne Cup winning trainer Joseph O’Brien nearly took out his second Cup when Master of Reality was second past the post last year before being demoted to fourth for causing interference late on. Half a kilo more to shoulder this year but he has been trained all year with this target in mind.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Unlucky not to win last year despite going like a dodgem car in the straight. Easy last start winner down in grade in Northern Ireland and must be considered again as a leading contender.
BETTING: $21
Master Of Reality justifies favouritism and regains his winning tread landing the Her Majesty's Plate under @waynemlordan for @JosephOBrien2 👠pic.twitter.com/vgEBmqphUN
— Down Royal Racecourse (@Downroyal) September 4, 2020
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5. SIR DRAGONET
5yo horse Camelot/Sparrow
10 starts: 3 wins, 4 seconds, 0 thirds
Prizemoney: $3,641,570
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Glen Boss
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 14
FORM: Made good late ground when 2-1/4 len 2nd of 6 (1) $19.00 62.5 Magical 2012m Ire - Curragh G1 Tatt’s Gold Cup Soft July 26. Powered home for 1-1/4 len win of 14 (6) $7.50 59.0 Armory, Russian Camelot 2040m M Valley G1 Cox Plate Soft(7) Oct 24.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Aiming to become only the 8th horse in history to complete the Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup double. He relished the soft ground and strong tempo of the Cox Plate on his first Australian start for the Maher Eustace stable to win in good stlye. Its his first attempt at 3200m but considering he debuted at 2500m the suggestion is he’s bred to stay.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: A lot to like about this bloke. The way he won the Cox Plate suggested there was plenty left in the tank also. Does appreciate the sting out of the ground though so conditions could be vital to his chances. Nicely weighted and has the in-form G.Boss. Lots of ticks.
BETTING: $11
He gets his big race, but it’s not for Aidan O’Brien! Sir Dragonet wins the Ladbrokes Cox Plate for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace!
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) October 24, 2020
🎥@Racing
pic.twitter.com/QeU2DxEEfr
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6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT
8yo gelding Teofilo/Dream On Buddy
29 starts: 7 wins, 10 seconds, 6 thirds
Prizemoney: $858,071
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 12
FORM: Came right away for 8 len win of 6 (1) $1.55F 63.0 Master Of Reality, Camphor 2816m Ire - Curragh G2 Curragh Cup Dead July 18. Stuck to his guns when 2 len, nk 3rd of 8 (6) $5.50 62.0 Search For A Song, Fujaira Prince 2816m Ire - Curragh LR Irish St Leger Good Sept 13.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Like his stablemate Master of Reality he will aim to become one of only a few horses to win this race after being beaten in it previously. He finished 11th last year after leading for much of the way at only a moderate tempo. Better form in Europe this year after having his training regime mixed up by young gun trainer Joseph O’Brien and bids to give owner Lloyd Williams his seventh win in the race.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Run last year was full of merit (11th behind Vow And Declare) and looks to have returned a far better commodity for Lloyd Williams. Last start third in the Group 1 Irish St Leger. He walloped a small field at the Curragh prior to that, winning by eight lengths with Master Of Reality running second.
BETTING: $26
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7. VERRY ELLEEGANT
5yo mare Zed/Opulence
24 starts: 11 wins, 5 seconds, 1 third
Prizemoney: $6,896,044
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 15
FORM: Toughed it out for sht hd win of 15 (9) $5.00F 55.5 Toffee Tongue, Finche 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stks Good(3) Oct 3. Ran on strongly for sht nk win of 18 (8) $5.00F 55.0 Anthony Van Dyck, The Chosen One 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: 100 horses have tried to do the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double and only 11 have succeeded, the most recent being Ethereal 19 years ago. She was penalised half a kilo for that strong win over 2400m defeating Anthony van Dyck and whilst she doesn’t lack for talent she will need to settle over the 3200m to be sure of seeing out the trip and overcoming the recent Caulfield Cup curse.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: The real deal and clear top pick of the local hopes. Winner of six Group 1s including the 2020 Caulfield Cup. Ethereal was the last horse to complete the double in 2001 but Verry Elleegant has the quality and grit to be right in the finish. Distance the only query.
BETTING: $12
What a MARE!
— 7HorseRacing 🎠(@7horseracing) October 17, 2020
Verry Elleegant is the Caulfield Cup hero for 2020! pic.twitter.com/Rl8Z6lzJtC
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8. MUSTAJEER
8yo gelding Medicean/Qelaan
29 starts: 5 wins, 5 seconds, 3 thirds
Prizemoney: $1,965,726
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 2
FORM: Beat half the field home when 4-1/2 len 9th of 18 (5) $61.00 58.0 Mirage Dancer 2400m R’wick G1 The Metrop Good(4) Oct 3. Passed a couple late when 3-3/4 len 8th of 18 (11) $101.00 55.0 Verry Elleegant 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Disappointing second last in the Cup of 2019 after winning Europe’s most valuable handicap, the Ebor, at York earlier that year. Carries the same weight as last year but he would need to lift considerably on his form this spring to be a player here.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Former international had form around the right horses in the UK but struggled to make the top grade in Australia. Will be finishing in the second half of the field.
BETTING: $71
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9. STRATUM ALBION
8yo gelding Dansili/Lunar Phase
16 starts: 3 wins, 6 seconds, 2 thirds
Prizemoney: $164,536
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Jordan Childs
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 9
FORM: Safely held when 22-1/4 len 7th of 18 (0) $17.00 74.5 Great White Shark 4626m Ire - Galway Hrdl Soft July 31. Kept coming when 3/4 len 2nd of 7 (4) $21.00 58.5 Enbihaar 3219m G B - York G2 Lonsdale Cup Good Aug 21.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Trainer Willie Mullins is better known a maestro in the jumping world over in Europe but when he targets a staying race with a dual purpose horse like this you have to be brave to ignore it. He barely gets warmed up over 3200m and will want a strong and consistent tempo to see him at his best. He was a good last start second in traditionally a good UK form race, carries a competitive weight and goes around at juicy odds.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: From the same trainer as Max Dynamite - the sunglasses wearing hurdler that made an impression in Melbourne - and brings similar formlines. Last start runner up in the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup splitting Enbihaar and Nayef Road and prior to that contested three hurdle races. Will be running on at the finish.
BETTING: $51
Nice piece of work on the sand track by Stratum Albion, followed by True Self. @OTIRacing @WillieMullinsNH pic.twitter.com/8GrjtXOYiB
— Damien Ractliffe (@DamienRactliffe) October 10, 2020
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10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY
5yo gelding Nathaniel/Miss Dashwood
12 starts: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Prizemoney: $343,706
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Michael Walker
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 19
FORM: Toughed it out when 2-1/2 len 4th of 7 (7) $3.30 58.5 Enbihaar 3219m G B - York G2 Lonsdale Cup Good Aug 21. Didn’t finish it off when 27-1/4 len last of 18 (1) $31.00 54.5 Verry Elleegant 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Smart UK stayer who Michael Walker chose to partner this spring over Prince of Arran. Very disappointing on Australian debut when last in the Caulfield Cup after leading them up. The reports are that his work at Werribee since has been good but he would need to leave that run a long way behind him.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Too bad to be true in the Caulfield Cup. If you can forget a 27.2-length last start defeat then have something each-way. Prior form good enough to be a genuine contender.
BETTING: $71
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11. FINCHE
5yo gelding Frankel/Binche
18 starts: 4 wins, 1 seconds, 5 thirds
Prizemoney: $1,295,266
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James McDonald
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 6
FORM: Covered extra ground when sht hd, sht hd 3rd of 15 (15) $5.50 54.5 Verry Elleegant, Toffee Tongue 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stks Good(3) Oct 3. Had no luck when 2-1/2 len 5th of 18 (9) $9.00 54.5 Verry Elleegant 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: A good stayer from the Chris Waller yard. He was 7th last year and 4th in 2018 and carries half a kilo extra this year. You can rely on him to run a solid race but his form suggests he is better over a shorter distance.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Got a bit of back me next time about him does the son of Frankel but equally, he always seems to run well. Distance no problem and has the benefit of James McDonald in the saddle. Needs room to fully unwind and must be due for a change of luck. Definitely one for the exotics.
BETTING: $17
Melbourne Cup aspirant Finche got on the @FlemingtonVRC course proper this morning with race jockey @mcacajamez aboard. Was strong in the Caulfield Cup covering ground. https://t.co/R4zebe4384 via @YouTube
— Andrew Bensley (@AndrewBensley) October 26, 2020
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12. PRINCE OF ARRAN
8yo gelding Shirocco/Storming Sioux
41 starts: 6 wins, 8 seconds, 6 thirds
Prizemoney: $2,753,191
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 1
FORM: Kept coming when 7 len, hd 3rd of 6 (1) $17.00 59.5 Enable, Kirstenbosch 2412m G B - Kempton Park G3 September Stks Synthetic Sept 5. Rattled home from well back when 1-3/4 len 4th of 18 (15) $17.00 54.5 Verry Elleegant 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: This horse has some Melbourne Cup record. He finished 3rd in 2018 and was promoted to second last year so can he go one better on his third attempt for young UK training talent Charlie Fellowes? He only has to shoulder half a kilo more than 12 months ago and instead of having to force his way into the field like in the past, this year he enjoyed a really good hit out in the Caulfield Cup hitting the line really well for 4th. My sentimental favourite!
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Goes to another level in Australia and has built a cult following as a result. Placed in the Cup last year and gets the benefit of in-form Jamie Kah in the saddle. Getting long in the tooth but his Caulfield Cup suggests the Prince is going as well as ever before.
BETTING: $10
He’s ready to go! â¤ï¸
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 30, 2020
Prince of Arran had his final piece of work this morning before the #MelbourneCup.
(🎥 @Blood1971)
pic.twitter.com/k8Bh9jzP0a
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13. SURPRISE BABY
6yo gelding Shocking/Bula Baby
13 starts: 5 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Prizemoney: $999,735
Trainer: Paul Preusker
Jockey: Craig Williams
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 7
FORM: Ran on strongly for lg nk 2nd of 8 (7) $3.30F 59.0 Humidor 1600m M Valley G2 Feehan Stakes Good(3) Sept 5. Began awkwardly then held up several times when 2-1/2 len 9th of 15 (1) $6.00 57.5 Verry Elleegant 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stks Good(3) Oct 3.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: We all need a sprit lifter in the year of COVID-19 and this could be the horse to provide it. One of only a few locally bred horses who cost only $5,500 and is trained in the bush by Paul Preusker. He ran a brilliant race in the Melbourne Cup 12 months ago finishing late and fast for 5th and carries 1kg more this time around. Craig Williams replaces Jordan Childs this year.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Super run last year from a wide alley and trained to the minute to peak on the first Tuesday in November again. Gets in light and proven at the distance. Serious winning chance.
BETTING: $8
It’s 7 days out from the @FlemingtonVRC Melbourne Cup. Take a ride with Craig on the Paul Preusker trained Surprise Baby in their final workout @jk_stables @Racing @RacingInsider @10SportAU @7horseracing @7Sport @RSN927 @Country_Racing @SkyRacingAU @m_felgate @AndrewBensley @WHR pic.twitter.com/DSFKbTIHgY
— Craig Williams (@CWilliamsJockey) October 27, 2020
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14. KING OF LEOGRANCE
Late Scratching
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15. RUSSIAN CAMELOT
4yo horse Camelot/Lady Babooshka
9 starts: 4 wins, 3 seconds, 1 third
Prizemoney: $1,466,225
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 16
FORM: Got run down late when 1-1/4 len 2nd of 6 (4) $1.40F 56.5 Arcadia Queen 2000m C’field G1 Caulfield Stks Good(4) Oct 10. Stuck to his guns when 1-1/4 len, 3/4 len 3rd of 14 (14) $3.50F 56.5 Sir Dragonet, Armory 2040m M Valley G1 Cox Plate Soft(7) Oct 24.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Born in March 2017 in Europe this Spring Carnival star in the making is technically only a three year old still. He has come a long way in a short time winning the South Australian Derby and the the Underwood Stakes and finishing third in a Cox Plate just over two weeks ago. He is clearly very talented but not guaranteed at 3200m and is towards the end of a long campaign.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Big wraps on him going into the spring and has not disappointed, with a win and three placings all at Group 1 level. Just didn’t have the turn of speed to go with the imports in the Cox Plate so could find the 3200m more to his liking. Sat wide and throttled them in the South Australian Derby (2500m) last preparation. Will he be better off next year?
BETTING: $13
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16. STEEL PRINCE
7yo gelding Nathaniel/Steel Princess
26 starts: 9 wins, 5 seconds, 3 thirds
Prizemoney: $1,064,412
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman
Jockey: William Pike
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 21
FORM: Raced wide without cover when len, nose 3rd of 15 (14) $7.50 58.0 Persan, Sound 2510m F’ton G3 Bart Cummings Good(3) Oct 3. Always handy when scoring lg hd win of 9 (7) $3.50F 57.5 Le Don De Vie, King Of Leogrance 2400m Geelong G3 Geelong Cup Good(4) Oct 21.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: He could only manage 9th last year with 52.5kg but his form this time around is much better, notably when defeating the likes of Ashrun in the Geelong Cup for which he got a 1kg penalty taking him to 53.5kg this time around. Main concern is his ability to settle in the run and barrier 21 makes that task harder again.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Geelong Cup winner and only beaten two lengths last year when ninth in the Melbourne Cup. Comes into this in better shape than last year. Maybe one for the exotics.
BETTING: $41
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17. THE CHOSEN ONE
5yo horse Savabeel/The Glitzy One
26 starts: 6 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds
Prizemoney: $1,315,509
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 5
FORM: Covered extra ground when 5 len 7th of 9 (6) $11.00 58.0 Chapada 2400m C’field G2 Herbert Power Good(3) Oct 10. Began awkwardly then checked near the 300m when sht nk, 3/4 len 3rd of 18 (2) $61.00 53.5 Verry Elleegant, Anthony Van Dyck 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Despite finishing 17th in the Melbourne Cup last year and having 1.5kg more this year there’s plenty to like about this horse that represents some value here. Third to Verry Elleegant and Anthony van Dyck in the Caulfield Cup at $61, a Sydney Cup runner up and a horse with a good record at Flemington trained by a master Kiwi handler and jumping from barrier 5.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Won first up at Flemington last month like Pegasus and then put in two howlers at Caulfield before an eye-catching third in the Caulfield Cup. Mixes form but at best could be there at the clock tower.
BETTING: $31
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18. ASHRUN
5yo horse Authorized/Ashantee
14 starts: 5 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Prizemoney: $368,064
Trainer: Andreas Wohler
Jockey: Declan Bates
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 24
FORM: Toughed it out when 1-1/2 len 2nd of 8 (9) $5.30 59.0 Call The Wind 3000m Fr - Deauville G2 Prix Kergorlay Soft Aug 23. Hung out on straightening before finishing 1-1/2 len 4th of 9 (8) $6.00 58.5 Steel Prince 2400m Geelong G3 Geelong Cup Good(4) Oct 21.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Trainer Andreas Wohler made the trek to Melbourne (via quarantine) from his home in Germany to see his horse win his way into the Cup field with a really good last to first win in the Lexus Hotham Stakes on Saturday. He was not rehandicapped for that win but he was unlucky enough to be give the widest barrier of all in 24. A first cup ride for Irish jockey Declan Bates.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Andreas Wohler, who prepared Protectionist for Australian Bloodstock, is the only international trainer to make the trip Down Under for the Cup. He’s either here for a holiday or to pick up a cheque. Ashrun savaged the line late to win the Hotham, needs only to recover to be a factor.
BETTING: $23
Ashrun wins the Hotham and is into the Lexus #MelbourneCup! An incredible run to pip Sound at the post with a photo third #DerbyDay # pic.twitter.com/sbAhMOdgIf
— 10 Sport (@10SportAU) October 31, 2020
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19. WARNING
4yo gelding Declaration of War/Livia
16 starts: 2 wins, 1 seconds, 3 thirds
Prizemoney: $1,507,900
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman
Jockey: Luke Currie
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 8
FORM: Made good late ground when len 6th of 15 (7) $61.00 56.5 Verry Elleegant 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stks Good(3) Oct 3. Never got close when 5-1/4 len 12th of 18 (16) $21.00 53.0 Verry Elleegant 2400m C’field G1 Caulfield Cup Soft(6) Oct 17.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: I wouldn’t be surprised to see this horse outrun his odds here. True he has only won two of his 16 races but they have both been at Flemington and one was the Victoria Derby. I think he likes a test of stamina and he needs the long straight to get fully wound up. In 2007 Efficient won the Melbourne Cup carrying 1.5kg more than Warning will and he similarly had not won a race since winning the Derby the year before. One for those that like a roughie.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Not going well enough to be winning but should be competitive all the same. Saves his best for the bigger tracks but hard to go past the fact his last win was the 2019 Victoria Derby. Only a length behind Verry Elleegant when sixth in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes then potentially caught on the wrong part of the track in the Caulfield Cup.
BETTING: $51
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20. ETAH JAMES
8yo mare Raise The Flag/Etah
32 starts: 8 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Prizemoney: $1,248,994
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Billy Egan
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 22
FORM: Never threatened when 8-3/4 len 13th of 18 (6) $51.00 53.5 Mirage Dancer 2400m R’wick G1 The Metrop Good(4) Oct 3. Kept coming when 4 len 4th of 12 (3) $31.00 56.0 Miami Bound 2500m M Valley G2 M.V. Gold Cup Soft(7) Oct 24.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: She was the winner of the Sydney Cup back in April with 51.5kg on her back and on a heavy track. She only has 52.5kg here but it would be a surprise to see her winning this year’s race, especially from barrier 22.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Big odds Sydney Cup (3200m) winner and she will go around at massive odds again. Fourth in the Auckland Cup (3200m) prior to that. Disappointing in the Metropolitan two starts back but improved performance in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Only way you’re backing it is if your name is Etah.
BETTING: $71
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21. TIGER MOTH
4yo horse Galileo/Lesson In Humility
4 starts: 2 wins, 1 seconds, 1 third
Prizemoney: $352,409
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 23
FORM: Just missed when hd 2nd of 14 (2) $12.00 58.0 Santiago 2414m Ire - Curragh G1 Irish Derby Good June 27. Powered away for 4 len win of 12 (5) $1.85F 58.5 Silence Please, Up Helly Aa 2414m Ire - Leopardstown G3 Kilternan Stks Good Sept 12.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: Think Rekindling (winner 2017), think Cross Counter (winner 2018) and think Il Paradiso (slashing 3rd last year) and you’ll realise that the most recent formula for Melbourne Cup success is finding that lightly weighted, lightly raced northern hemisphere three-year-old. Tiger Moth bids to give the world’s most successful trainer Aidan O’Brien his first win in the race after many many attempts. However, he is attempting the 3200m for the first time, its only his 5th lifetime start and no horse has won from barrier 23 since Van Der Hum in 1976.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Weight? Tick. Breeding? Tick. Stable? Tick. Jockey? Tick. Aidan O’Brien is desperate to win the Melbourne Cup? Tick. Only had the four career starts but stable adamant experience (or lack of) won’t get him beaten. Runner-up in the Group 1 Irish Derby (2400m).
BETTING: $7
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22. OCEANEX
5yo mare Ocean Park/Danex
22 starts: 6 wins, 4 seconds, 4 thirds
Prizemoney: $721,970
Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Weight: 51.5kg
Barrier: 17
FORM: Set the pace before finishing 4-1/2 len 14th of 15 (13) $91.00 55.5 Verry Elleegant 2000m F’ton G1 Turnbull Stks Good(3) Oct 3. Got nabbed late when 2-1/2 len, 1/2 len 3rd of 12 (6) $10.00 55.0 Miami Bound, Shared Ambition 2500m M Valley G2 M.V. Gold Cup Soft(7) Oct 24.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: She won her way into the race with a win in the Andrew Ramsden earlier in the year and beating King of Leogrance in the process. The light weight gives her an appeal as does her record at Flemington — three wins from five starts — but the distance is a query here.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Qualified for the Cup in May, winning the Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes, the same form line as Surprise Baby and Steel Prince last year, but returned in the spring and only battled in three starts prior a nice third in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase last Saturday. Passed fit to race last week after exhibiting some signs of lameness. Take on trust.
BETTING: $71
Mick Kent Jnr provided an update on Melbourne Cup contender Oceanex after her VET check this morning. @FlemingtonVRC @MickPriceRacing pic.twitter.com/ue57rzxjrH
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 30, 2020
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23. MIAMI BOUND
4yo mare Reliable Man/Arapaho Miss
14 starts: 5 wins, 0 seconds, 2 thirds
Prizemoney: $1,228,000
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Weight: 51kg
Barrier: 13
FORM: Had every chance when 3-3/4 len 6th of 9 (1) $21.00 54.0 Chapada 2400m C’field G2 Herbert Power Good(3) Oct 10. Powered away for 2-1/2 len win of 12 (4) $26.00 54.0 Shared Ambition, Oceanex 2500m M Valley G2 M.V. Gold Cup Soft(7) Oct 24.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: This time last year this Danny O’Brien trained filly took out the VRC Oaks and she was an impressive winner of the Moonee Valley Cup last time out. Danny O’Brien who won this last year with Vow and Declare has three chances this year and despite the odds this just could be the best of them and aided by only 51kg and a decent barrier.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: 2019 Oaks winner snapped a six-start drought winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup in emphatic fashion. Probably needs a decent sprinkling of rain to find her best but gets in super light and likes Flemington.
BETTING: $34
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24. PERSAN
4yo horse Pierro/Ofcourseican
19 starts: 6 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third
Prizemoney: $656,971
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Michael Dee
Weight: 51kg
Barrier: 20
FORM: Just missed when lg hd 2nd of 10 (6) $3.20 56.0 Lord Belvedere 2500m F’ton Qlty Good(4) Sept 12. Came from midfield to score len win of 15 (1) $10.00 55.0 Sound, Steel Prince 2510m F’ton G3 Bart Cummings Good(3) Oct 3.
FRANCESCA CUMANI SAYS: This is a young horse who is making his way up through the grades in good style. He has finished top two in his last nine starts culminating with a win in the Bart Cummings to secure his place in this field with only 51kg. He has a great attitude and will to win but that may not be enough at this stage of his career to win especially from barrier 20 on his first attempt at 3200m.
GILBERT GARDINER SAYS: Nicely weighted and took out the Group 3 Bart Cummings (2500m) in style. Been up a while, having raced through the winter as a late-blooming son of Golden Slipper winner Pierro. Should be thereabouts again.
BETTING: $31
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