‘Could have been 14 lengths closer’: Ratings guru Dan O’Sullivan questions Queen Elizabeth Stakes jockeys

In his review of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, rating guru Dan O’Sullivan said he had never seen anything like this race where it was literally two separate events.”

Pride Of Jenni trounces her rivals.

Ratings guru Dan O’Sullivan says the chasing pack behind Pride Of Jenni in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes could have been 14 lengths closer in the run “and not have been unduly taxing their horses”.

In his review of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, O’Sullivan said on Monday: “I’ve never seen anything like this race where it was literally two separate events. Pride Of Jenni in her own race and the pack in a jog and sprint WFA race.”

“Pride Of Jenni went at a similar speed to the 800m and 600m mark as she did in the Australian Cup,” he said.

“Her extreme leading margin was hugely contributed to by the incredibly casual nature of the chasing pack.

“As an example, Mr Brightside (2nd in run) ran about 14 lengths slower to the 600m than is typical for a Randwick 2000m race, not even factoring in that, on average, G1 quality horses should run faster in the early stages than the overall time and distance standard.

READ | Shane Dye: Best horse won but ‘everyone at fault’ for Queen Elizabeth procession

Pride Of Jenni cleared out from her rivals.

“In other words, the pack could have been at least 14 lengths closer at the 600m mark and not have been unduly taxing their horses. They would have travelled no faster than the typical early speed for the Randwick 2000m trip.

“Pride Of Jenni was running her race like she typically does. The others were running their race like she wasn’t there, taking part in something typical of a jog and sprint weight-for-age race.”

O’Sullivan said: “Jockeys don’t have the benefit of seeing sectionals during the run to know exactly how fast they are going, but they must have known they were travelling well and truly within their comfort zones.”

READ | Can we stop the blame game. The best horse won … simple!

Declan Bates and Pride of Jenni after the race.

“I think psychology was a big factor after the first 400m or so and through the middle stages, with jockeys afraid of busting their horse by chasing Pride Of Jenni and trying to close the gap,” he said.

“In essence, they were psyched out of the race by the reputation of Pride Of Jenni, and the result was an overcorrection where they went far slower than they should have.”

READ | Queen Elizabeth jockeys questioned as Waller weighs in

Punting Form Data from the Queen Elizabeth:

- Pride of Jenni -13.7 lengths faster than the Class Average to the 600m⏱️

- 4.4 lengths faster than the class avg to the 600m mark compared to her Australian Cup Run 🏎️

- Via Sistina 34.1 lengths off Pride of Jenni with 800m to go📝 pic.twitter.com/NjHw6KFyMd

— Punting Form (@PuntingForm) April 14, 2024

O’Sullivan said: “On the objective measures of the clock, on a day where times were typical of a Good 4 track, Pride Of Jenni’s overall time of 122.02 was certainly not as remarkable as a 6½-length winning margin over Via Sistina and 8.4L over Mr Brightside would suggest, based on what we know of the talent of those horses.”

“In a rating sense, if you take some type of line through the ratings of those behind, you’d have Pride Of Jenni at an elite world-class level... think of Might And Power or Sunline with a similar running style, but the clock doesn’t warrant that.

“The chasing pack, with the start they gave by going so slowly for so long, essentially didn’t take part in the “race”, so none of them can get credit for running anywhere near their typical form.”