Best bets and value plays for Cox Plate Day races at The Valley
Red Aces can continue his march to the Victoria Derby while a filly from the Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman stable could spring a minor surprise on Cox Plate day at The Valley.
News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Cox Plate meeting.
BEST BET
RED ACES (Race 6, No.2)
Improved significantly when up in trip at Flemington second-up and will be fitter again for that. He can cap his Derby preparation with a win.
VALUE BET
FOREVERINTIME (Race 4, No.4)
Foreverintime relished the 1500m when close-up at Mornington last time and can continue to improve over a bit more ground at The Valley.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 7, 8, 11/1, 4, 6, 7, 8/2, 4, 5/, 1, 2, 4, 7
$100 flexi for 33 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 2, 3, 8
Race 8: 1, 6, 7, 11
Race 9: 1, 2, 6, 7
Race 10: 5, 6, 8
$100 flexi for 69 per cent
RACE 1: 12.10PM STRATHMORE COMMUNITY BENDIGO BANK HANDICAP (1000m)
An open sprint to start Cox Plate Day. FRILLED (9) had no luck when resuming over 955m at The Valley and looks suited with only 53kg. ACROMANTULA (3) is a smart sprinter on debut for the Hayes brothers but has jumped out well. RED HOT NICC (7) is another first-up runner that could show something with a good record at The Valley. KATSU (2) could fire fresh after two solid trials.
SUGGESTED BET: Frilled to win.
LADBROKES MARKET Katsu $4.50 – $4.40.
RACE 2: 12.45PM GROUP 3 RED ANCHOR STAKES (1200m)
WINNASEDGE (6) steps up in class after a good win in a strong race at Bendigo but should be hard to beat. IKASARA (5) was solid in the Roman Consul Stakes in Sydney and has drawn perfectly. WOLFGANG (4) is a first-up winner and has trialled well leading up to his debut as a gelding. BOSUSTOW (3) drops back to 1200m and should be in this for a long way.
SUGGESTED BET: Winnasedge to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Bosustow $3.60 – $3.40
RACE 3: 1.20PM LISTED CROCKETT STAKES (1200m)
Several chances in this race but SPRING AIR (11) is worth a small bet at the odds after her fighting debut win at Sale. She’s drawn for a softer run. SAVAGERY VIBE (8) wasn’t disgraced in Group 2 company at Flemington and drops in class. CERTAIN RISE (7 () was an easy winner at Mornington and could measure up. SEASCAPE (2) is racing well in Sydney and should be thereabouts.
SUGGESTED BET: Spring Air each-way.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Savagery Vibe $6.50 – $4.60.
RACE 4: 1.55PM GROUP 2 FILLIES’ CLASSIC (1600m)
An even field for this Group 2 race but FOREVERINTIME (4) has improved with each run this time in and looks suited over 1600m. CAVITY BAY (1) chased home a handy one in Adelaide last time and drops back to 1600m. LADY SADLER (8) was brave when breaking her maiden at Ballarat and will be fitter again. SHOCKLETZ (6) is another improver that won well at Bendigo second-up.
SUGGESTED BET: Foreverintime each-way.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Double Market $6.50 – $5.
RACE 5: 3.05PM GROUP 3 JRA CUP (2040m)
KINGSWOOD (4) has been dominant in his two start for the Gavin Bedggood stable and this is no harder than his Coongy Cup win. SECOND TO NUN (5) didn’t have a lot of luck in the Seymour Cup and could improve. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (2) wasn’t disgraced in the Coongy Cup first-up and will be fitter. GEAR UP (3) is better than his last start at Group 2 level.
SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 4/2, 3, 5/2, 3, 5
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Smokin’ Romans $12 – $10.
RACE 6: 3.05PM GROUP 2 VASE (2040m)
RED ACES (2) is progressing perfectly towards the Victoria Derby and can post a win at his first crack at this distance range. OPENING ADDRESS (7) is another promising stayer that should enjoy the distance. VIANARRA (1) closed late in the Caulfield Guineas and is worth thought over this longer trip. POLITELY DUN (4) was an easy 2000m winner at Ballarat and should measure up.
SUGGESTED BET: Red Aces to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Red Aces $3.40 – $3.30.
RACE 7: 3.40PM GROUP 2 MCEWEN STAKES (1200m)
OSCAR’S FORTUNE (2) gave a good sight at his local debut when second to Bellatrix Star but he’ll be fitter for this and is unbeaten second-up. BARAQIEL (8) is flying and can measure up to this higher class. MORNINGTON GLORY (2) is yet to win over 1200m but is a Group 1 winner at The Valley. CELUI (7) will be fitter for two promising outings this time in.
SUGGESTED BET: Oscar’s Fortune to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Extratwo $21 – $12.
RACE 8: 4.20PM GROUP 2 CRYSTAL MILE (1600m)
ROYAL CHAMPION (7) will be much fitter for his first-up outing at Flemington and he drops for 4kg for this assignment. PLENTY OF AMMO (11) was solid first-up and is unbeaten over 1600m. SUPARAZI (6) is racing consistently and always races well at The Valley. UNCLE BRYN (1) was a shock winner at Flemington but is worth including again.
SUGGESTED BET: Royal Champion to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Royal Champion $5.50 – $4.80.
RACE 9: 5.10PM GROUP 1 COX PLATE (2040m)
Looks to be good speed in this race, which will suit the Japanese runner PROGNOSIS (2), who has world class form around last year’s winner Romantic Warrior. MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) went down narrowly last year and is racing as well as ever. VIA SISTINA (7) had some drama in her gallop on Tuesday but she has the class to overcome it. PRIDE OF JENNI (6) will be hard to run down as usual.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 6, 7
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Via Sistina $5.50 – $4.
RACE 10: 5.50PM GROUP 3 TESIO STAKES (2040m)
LITTLE MIX (5) hit the line well when resuming in Sydney and will be suited by the step up in trip. FIRESTORM (6) drops back in class from the Epsom Handicap and is worth including. PRIVATE LEGACY (8) caught the eye at Caulfield second-up and will be fitter. BASILINNA improved at Cranbourne and drops 4kg for this.
SUGGESTED BET: Little Mix to win.
LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Firestorm $3.60 – $3.40.
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