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2021 Melbourne Cup expert tips, field, form guide, betting

Francesca Cumani
11 min read
8:22AMOctober 31, 2021.
Updated 6:47AMNovember 02, 2021
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Racing personality Francesca Cumani thinks foreign raider Spanish Mission can win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. Picture: FIle
Racing personality Francesca Cumani thinks foreign raider Spanish Mission can win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. Picture: FIle

Since its inception in 1861 the Melbourne Cup has been Australia’s great race. The race that stops the nation, the race that interrupts the school day, the race that makes the heart pump faster and the race that makes heroes and heroines of its victors.

Six of the past 10 Cups have gone abroad and millions of dollars of prize money with them. But this year it’s all different. Bringing horses to race in the Cup from abroad has always been very expensive and a logistical headache, but now it’s all much harder again thanks to Covid-19.

 
 

■ READ BELOW: Melbourne Cup betting, form and expert tips

Where in recent years we have become used to around half the 24-horse field hailing from international stables, this year we only have two. It has enabled many more locally-trained horses to gain a start and perhaps is more likely to give us that fairytale rags to riches narrative we have long associated with the great race. Perhaps it will energise even more interest and associated wagering on the race.

Speaking of wagering, let’s get down to why we’re here ... who wins the 2021 Melbourne Cup?

Seemingly it’s a field of two halves and it’s the weights that tell the story. Towards the top of the weights we have the likes of Twilight Payment, Incentivise, Spanish Mission and Verry Elleegant all between 57kg and 58kg, and the other 20 runners are carrying 54kg or less right down to 50kg for Sir Lucan and Great House.

Spanish Mission is ridden by Craig Williams during a trackwork session at Werribee ahead of Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images
Spanish Mission is ridden by Craig Williams during a trackwork session at Werribee ahead of Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Even taking into account sex and age allowances, it reads like there are four good horses taking on 20 rather less good ones and reading into the betting it’s shaping more as a two-horse race between Incentivise and Spanish Mission.

Spanish Mission is guaranteed to see out the 3200m strongly, but will he get a strong pace to bring his stamina to the fore? Has he had to overcome one hurdle too many in making it to the Cup while Incentivise has it on his doorstep? Peter Moody’s star galloper has made a meteoric rise through the ranks, but it’s the first time he has met a quality northern hemisphere stayer. The stage is set, it might be a different Melbourne Cup, but it’s bound to be a goodie.

FRANCESCA CUMANI’S CUP TIPS
3 Spanish Mission
2 Incentivise
24 Sir Lucan
Best roughie: 21 Tralee Rose

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2021 MELBOURNE CUP (3200m)
Flemington, Race 7 | Tuesday, November 3 at 3pm (AEDT)
Prizemoney: $7,750,000

BETTING
$2.80 Incentivise
$10 Spanish Mission
$12 Twilight Payment
$13 Verry Elleegant
$14 Floating Artist
$16 Grand Promenade, Tralee Rose
$19 Delphi
$21 Great House
$26 Persan, Pondus, Sir Lucan
$34 The Chosen One
$41 Explosive Jack
$51 Selino
$81 Ocean Billy, Knights Order, Carif, She’s Ideel, Future Score
$126 Master Of Wine, Miami Bound
$151 Johnny Get Angry, Port Guillaume

(Fixed odds, correct at 6.45am November 1. Check TAB for updated prices)

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EXPERT TIPS

BRENDAN CORMICK
1 Twilight Payment
16 Grand Promenade
2 Incentivise

FRANCESCA CUMANI
3 Spanish Mission
2 Incentivise
24 Sir Lucan
Best roughie: 21 Tralee Rose

DANIEL SANKEY
16 Grand Promenade
2 Incentivise
3 Spanish Mission
22 Floating Artist

WALLY MASON
2 Incentivise
3 Spanish Moon
21 Tralee Rose

WILL SWANTON
2 Incentivise
1 Twilight Payment
16 Grand Promenade

RAY THOMAS
2 Incentivise
4 Verry Elleegant
16 Grand Promenade
6 The Chosen One

STEPHEN BRASSEL
2 Incentivise
3 Spanish Mission
16 Grand Promenade
22 Floating Artist

SIMON MOY
4 Verry Elleegant
2 Incentivise
16 Grand Promenade
21 Tralee Rose

GILBERT GARDINER
3 Spanish Mission
16 Grand Promenade
15 Pondus
2 Incentivise

BRAD WATERS
2 Incentivise
21 Tralee Rose
16 Grand Promenade
1 Twilight Payment

GLENN McFARLANE
2 Incentivise
3 Spanish Mission
4 Verry Elleegant
21 Tralee Rose

ANDREW RULE
2 Incentivise
4 Verry Elleegant
3 Spanish Mission
24 Sir Lucan

PATRICK CARLYON
3 Spanish Mission
2 Incentivise
16 Grand Promenade
1 Twilight Payment

BEN DORRIES
2 Incentivise
4 Verry Elleegant
16 Grand Promenade
6 The Chosen One

TRENTON AYRES
2 Incentivise
15 Pondus
6 The Chosen One
7 Delphi

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1 – TWILIGHT PAYMENT

 
 

Barrier: 2
Weight: 58kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Breeding: 9yo bay gelding Teofilo-Dream On Buddy (Oasis Dream)
Record: 36 starts — 9 wins, 11 seconds, 8 thirds
Last 10 starts: 1131x33912
Prizemoney: $5.7 million

FORM: The depending champion this year and he arrives back after a solid 2nd to Sonnyboyliston in the Group 1 Irish St Leger. Doesn’t look too badly treated with just 2.5kg more to carry than last year and seemingly in similar form. Must be rated highly.

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2 – INCENTIVISE

 
 

Barrier: 16
Weight: 57kg
Trainer: Peter Moody
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Breeding: 5yo bay gelding Shamus Award-Miss Argyle (Iglesia)
Record: 12 starts — 9 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Last 10 starts: 111111x111
Prizemoney: $4.6 million

FORM: Australia’s new star of the turf and confirmed his place at the top of the market with an emphatic victory in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup, his ninth on the trot. Makes his own luck up on the pace and has incredible aerobic capacity as he showed at Caulfield. The one they have to run down.

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3 – SPANISH MISSION

 
 

Barrier: 14
Weight: 57kg
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Craig Williams
Breeding: 6yo bay horse Noble Mission-Limonar (Street Cry)
Record: 18 starts — 6 wins, 4 seconds, 3 thirds
Last 10 starts: 17x2513x2x
Prizemoney: $2.1 million

FORM: Has impressed track watchers at Werribee and looms as the main player among the international runners, Boasts a strong staying record back home and has always held a strong place in the market. Comes right into calculations.

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4 – VERRY ELLEEGANT

 
 

Barrier: 19
Weight: 57kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James McDonald
Breeding: 6yo brown mare Zed-Opulence (Danroad)
Record: 33 starts — 14 wins, 7 seconds, 3 thirds
Last 10 starts: x3112x2143
Prizemoney: $9.7 million

FORM: Outstanding mare who finished off the Group 1 Cox Plate in the fashion of a horse who is ready to run a big race here. Beat 16 rivals home in this race last year and looks to be going just as well this time around. Sure to have plenty of admirers.

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5 – EXPLOSIVE JACK

 
 

Barrier: 4
Weight: 54kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: John Allen
Breeding: 4yo bay horse Jakkalberry-Extra Explosive (Ekraar)
Record: 12 starts — 5 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds
Last 10 starts: 132113x950
Prizemoney: $1.8 million

FORM: Last year’s Group 1 ATC Derby and Group 1 SA Derby winner and his lead-up form as been okay despite an unflattering finishing position in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. Drew the inside barrier that day and stewards reported he didn’t appreciate racing inside horses. Might sneak into a place here with the right run.

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6 – THE CHOSEN ONE

 
 

Barrier: 5
Weight: 54kg
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Jockey: Damian Lane
Breeding: 6yo bay horse Savabeel-The Glitzy One (Flying Spur)
Record: 35 starts — 6 wins, 5 seconds, 3 thirds
Last 10 starts: x2606x3420
Prizemoney: $1.9 million

FORM: NZ stayer back for a third crack at the Cup after finishing down the track in 2019 before a terrific 4th last year behind Twilight Payment. Looked on track with a strong-finishing 2nd in the Group 2 Herbert Power but failed to flatter in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (in which he ran 3rd in 2020). Can be forgiven that one bad run and might be over the odds.

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7 – DELPHI

 
 

Barrier: 3
Weight: 53.5kg
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Breeding: 5yo bay horse Galileo-Bye Bye Birdie (Oasis Dream)
Record: 10 starts — 5 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Last 10 starts: 111x6x4210
Prizemoney: $361,000

FORM: Irish import who blotted his copybook with a below-par performance in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. His form prior to that had been terrific, having split the subsequent Group 1 Caulfield Cup runner-up Nonconformist and Group 3 Geelong Cup winner Tralee Rose in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes before winning the Group 2 Herbert Power. Entitled to be given another chance.

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8 – OCEAN BILLY

 
 

Barrier: 13
Weight: 53.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Damien Thornton
Breeding: 6yo chestnut gelding Ocean Park-Cool Storm (One Cool Cat)
Record: 25 starts — 7 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Last 10 starts: 1x610x5059
Prizemoney: $548,000

FORM: NZ stayer who beat half the field home in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup and will be further improved by that outing. Boasts an emphatic victory in the Group 1 Auckland Cup at his only start over this trip and might run into a place at long odds. Keep in mind.

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9 – SELINO

 
 

Barrier: 24
Weight: 53.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Ron Stewart
Breeding: 6yo bay gelding Champs Elysees-Air Kiss (Red Ransom)
Record: 20 starts — 2 wins, 5 seconds, 2 thirds
Last 10 starts: 86541x0840
Prizemoney: $1.5 million

FORM: Import who raced into contention for this race with a strong win in the Group 1 Sydney Cup over this trip in April. At his third run this preparation he ran a nice 4th in the Group 3 Bart Cummings before missing the start in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup and beating only three home. Will appreciate the step up in trip and is not the worst.

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10 – JOHNNY GET ANGRY

 
 

Barrier: 22
Weight: 53kg
Trainer: Denis Pagan
Jockey: Lachlan King
Breeding: 4yo bay gelding Tavistock-Luminova (Zabeel)
Record: 11 starts — 1 win, 1 second, 2 thirds
Last 10 starts: 29431x0090
Prizemoney: $1.3 million

FORM: Last year’s Group 1 Victoria Derby winner hasn’t fired a shot in four runs this time in. After a 29.2-length last in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and a 19-length 12th in the Geelong Cup (2400m), it’s impossible to recommend with any confidence and he’ll likely start at long odds.

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11 – KNIGHTS ORDER

 
 

Barrier: 9
Weight: 53kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse
Breeding: 7yo bay or brown gelding So You Think-Lamanka Lass (Woodman)
Record: 21 starts — 7 wins, 0 seconds, 2 thirds
Last 10 starts: x8511x9097
Prizemoney: $474,000

FORM: UK import who boasts victory in the year’s Group 2 Brisbane Cup over this trip among his three wins since joining the Waterhouse/Bott stable. Has been thereabouts without threatening in three starts this campaign and needs to lift to be in the finish. Faces a task.

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12 – PERSAN

 
 

Barrier: 11
Weight: 53kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Luke Currie
Breeding: 5yo brown gelding Pierro-Ofcourseican (Mossman)
Record: 27 starts — 7 wins, 5 seconds, 3 thirds
Last 10 starts: 5x1244x373
Prizemoney: $1.4 million

FORM: Consistent stayer that doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Was the first Aussie horse home in last year’s Cup and has progressed well this time in. He tried hard but was no match for Incentivise in the Caulfield Cup but gets back to his favourite track at Flemington. Trainers will have him ready to 3200m and he’s an each-way chance.

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13 – CARIF

 
 

Barrier: 8
Weight: 52.5kg
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden
Jockey: Blaike McDougall
Breeding: 6yo brown gelding So You Think-Norzita (Thorn Park)
Record: 37 starts — 3 wins, 8 seconds, 1 third
Last 10 starts: 07422x4747
Prizemoney: $730,000

FORM: Dour stayer who doesn’t win out of turn although he did manage to win the 2020 Listed Sandown Cup and was runner-up in this year’s Group 2 Brisbane Cup at his only two tries over 3200m. Doesn’t look to have the brilliance needed to compete at this level and others appear to have his measure.

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14 – MASTER OF WINE

 
 

Barrier: 6
Weight: 52.5kg
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
Jockey: Fred Kersley
Breeding: 7yo bay gelding Maxios-Magma (Dubai Destination)
Record: 28 starts — 5 wins, 5 seconds, 4 thirds
Last 10 starts: x663x00030
Prizemoney: $900,000

FORM: Has struggled to recapture the form which last year saw him run a $7 chance in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. His best run this campaign was his fast-finishing third in the Group 3 Bart Cummins but he then finished down the track in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. This will be his first try at the 3200m and he will need everything to go his way to be a chance.

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15 – PONDUS

 
 

Barrier: 1
Weight: 52.5kg
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Jockey: Rachel King
Breeding: 6yo bay gelding Sea The Moon-Diablerette (Green Desert)
Record: 19 starts — 3 wins, 7 seconds, 1 third
Last 10 starts: x22x722x54
Prizemoney: $336,000

FORM: Widely-travelled stayer who has lumped big weights over staying trips in the UK and Ireland, including 63kg when runner-up in the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2816m in June. Was also runner-up in both runs here last Spring and has been ridden more forward in his two runs this preparation, both of which have had merit. Won’t know himself with just 52.5kg and can run top-6.

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16 – GRAND PROMENADE

 
 

Barrier: 21
Weight: 52kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Breeding: 6yo bay gelding Champs Elysees-Zacchera (Zamindar)
Record: 19 starts — 8 wins, 4 seconds, 2 thirds
Last 10 starts: x221211251
Prizemoney: $1 million

FORM: Raced into contention with a brilliant win over subsequent Group 3 Geelong Cup winner Tralee Rose in the Group 3 Bart Cummings here a month ago. That win earned him a 1kg penalty but he’ll still carry just 52kg and has emerged as a genuine hope. Has an exceptional record at this track and can be right in the finish.

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17 – MIAMI BOUND

 
 

Barrier: 17
Weight: 52kg
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Patrick Moloney
Breeding: 5yo bay mare Reliable Man-Arapaho Miss (Danehill Dancer)
Record: 26 starts — 5 wins, 0 seconds, 5 thirds
Last 10 starts: 78333x0095
Prizemoney: $1.7 million

FORM: Looking to improve on her 14th placing in last year’s Cup. Ran third in the Group 1 Sydney Cup in April after a similar placing at the start prior in the Group 1 Tancred Stakes, but she has struggled to find form in her spring campaign. Got past a couple in the run home in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup but a midfield finish looks her best hope again this year.

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18 – PORT GUILLAUME

 
 

Barrier: 23
Weight: 52kg
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Breeding: 5yo bay gelding Le Havre-Keira (Turtle Bowl)
Record: 10 starts — 4 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Last 10 starts: x1510x0600
Prizemoney: $309,000

FORM: Arrived from France as the winner of four of his six starts, including a Group 2 win over 2500m, but has failed to put himself in a winning position in all four Australian runs. Got a long way back in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup and passed a few in the run home, but will need to settle closer here if he is going to be competitive. Others have stronger claims.

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19 – SHE’S IDEEL

 
 

Barrier: 20
Weight: 52kg
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Breeding: 6yo bay mare Dundeel-Ana’s Mail (Anabaa)
Record: 25 starts — 6 wins, 6 seconds, 5 thirds
Last 10 starts: 2324x37197
Prizemoney: $1.1 million

FORM: Consistent Sydney mare who ran 4th in the Group 1 Sydney Cup in April at her first try over this trip, and she beat 11 rivals home in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup when racing in the worst part of the track. Before that, she had done her best work late in the Group 1 Metropolitan. Could run into a top-8 finish but a win would surprise.

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20 – FUTURE SCORE

 
 

Barrier: 15
Weight: 51.5kg
Trainer: Matt Cumani
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Breeding: 7yo black gelding Cape Cross-Theola (Kalanisi)
Record: 22 starts — 6 wins, 2 seconds, 4 thirds
Last 10 starts: 3x6133x086
Prizemoney: $565,000

FORM: Has been a consistent performer over staying trips since arriving here three years ago without getting to the top level. Some of his best runs have been at Flemington but he has struggled to make an impact this campaign. Hard to see him turning things around in this company.

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21 – TRALEE ROSE

 
 

Barrier: 12
Weight: 51kg
Trainer: Symon Wilde
Jockey: Dean Holland
Breeding: 5yo bay mare Tavistock-Star of Tralee (Zabeel)
Record: 15 starts — 6 wins, 4 seconds, 2 thirds
Last 10 starts: 12114x3321
Prizemoney: $745,000

FORM: Ultra-consistent mare with a terrific record when she steps out over a trip. Kept finding to win the Group 3 Geelong Cup and she ran 4th (of 14) in this year’s Group 2 Adelaide Cup at her only run over 3200m. Loves the Flemington track and she looms as one of the better lightweight chances.

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22 – FLOATING ARTIST

 
 

Barrier: 10
Weight: 50kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Teo Nugent
Breeding: 6yo bay or brown gelding Nathaniel-Miss Kenton (Pivotal)
Record: 16 starts — 5 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Last 10 starts: x55x011132
Prizemoney: $479,000

FORM: Import who has won three of his six starts since arriving on these shores, and he looked most unlucky not to taste victory when blocked for a run in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup. His closing 200m split was the 8th best of the day and with just 50kg he looms as one of the better lightweight chances. Must be highly respected.

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23 – GREAT HOUSE

 
 

Barrier: 7
Weight: 50kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Michael Dee
Breeding: 5yo bay gelding Galileo-Anja (Indian Ridge)
Record: 15 starts — 5 wins, 2 seconds, 3 thirds
Last 10 starts: x132751551
Prizemoney: $693,000

FORM: Battled away really well in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup although no match for the winner Incentivise. Backing up after an impressive win in the Lexus Hotham on Saturday, which secured his spot in the field. Looks like the trip will suit and has a chance at odds.

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24 – SIR LUCAN

 
 

Barrier: 18
Weight: 50kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Glen Boss
Breeding: 4yo bay horse Camelot-Sparrow (Oasis Dream)
Record: 8 starts — 2 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Last 10 starts: x41x81x248
Prizemoney: $153,000

FORM: Irish import now in the hands of the Waterhouse/Bott yard. Is a winner over 2615m at Listed level in Ireland but failed at his only run beyond that trip in the Group 1 UK St Leger. Others look to have stronger claims.

More Coverage

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Gilbert Gardiner and Brad Waters
Incentivise jockey’s business cup runneth over
John Stensholt
Vets make call on Melbourne Cup second favourite
Gilbert Gardiner
King hopes to become Queen of Melbourne Cup
Ben Dorries

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Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/horse-racing/2021-melbourne-cup-field-form-guide-expert-tips/news-story/ff78737af5b625374a639383cf840543