Gabba specialists: why the Cats can upset Richmond

Geelong‘s Gryan Miers with parents Dave and Kerry Miers, sister Jaydy and brother Ryger. Picture: Peter Ristevski

We get it, you’re completely thrown off your axis by this whole night AFL grand final thing. For the first time, the lights will be on (except for every other weekend, when there are also night games), the Sherrin will be yellow, Johnno from up the road will have overstayed his welcome by the time Mike Brady sings Up There Cazaly and you’ll likely be sozzled by the first bounce rather than the final siren.

You need some help. That’s what we’re here for.

So who is going to win? Most of our expert tipsters are sticking with the bookies’ favourite Richmond but punting pal Joel Williams of BetWithJoel.com says it’s the Year of the Cat.

Why? Mostly because the Cats are Gabba specialists, unbeaten at the Brisbane ground over five games this season — including a 40-point win over the Lions in the preliminary final. Richmond lost to Brisbane at the Gabba in the qualifying finals before righting the ship.

“Geelong are the ‘most dominant’ side in season 2020, holding the highest percentages in both the regular season and finals. The Cats come into this one in incredible shape on their new favourite ground,” Williams says.

“Richmond got the wood on the Cats late in the year and much has been spoken of that game. Don’t read into it — these sides are both diversely different and the Cats’ upside is much stronger. That night the Cats went into the game on a five-day break and really didn’t fire a shot after getting jumped early by the Tigers who came into that one well rested on a nine-day break.”

While Dusty Martin ($5) and Patrick Dangerfield ($6) stand out as the obvious candidates to win the Norm Smith Medal, Williams instead likes Geelong’s Mitch Duncan at $15 as the undervalued pick of the field.

“He leads the Cats in disposals by quite a distance. Mitch runs hard, getting a stack of ball on the outside where he is well seen. Mitch is top 10 in the league in uncontested possessions, marks and score involvements on the year. He can also drift forward and add to the scorer’s sheet which could be the difference if it gets tight in voting.”

And his sneaky option for an extra value play is Cats forward Gary Rohan to kick at least two goals (at $5).

“He has 14 goals in his past nine matches, the Gabba has also been a happy hunting ground for Gary, kicking eight goals in four matches this season. As a big confidence player, Rohan is poised for a big grand final.”

Triple word score

From some completely useful AFL grand final stats to some of the more useless variety, as brought to you by our favourite Facebook group Useless AFL Stats.

“The 2020 AFL grand final will be the first time two teams finishing third and fourth have ever played off for the flag. It will also the first time two teams who have lost an earlier final have played in the grand final,” they say.

“And finally it will the first time a player whose parents couldn’t decide whether to call their son Bryan or Gary has played in a grand final.”

They speak, of course, of Geelong’s Gryan Miers — such a mangled Strine name that surely his parents David and Kerry were eating poine loime sploices when they came up with that one.

Not so. Gryan has explained it was a brainstorming session using a Scrabble board. “Thought Ryan was OK, chucked a B in front of it, didn’t like it, put a G there and it’s good,” he revealed last year. Presumably they did something similar with Gryan’s siblings Ryger, Jaydy and Jarna.

David Miers is a biomechanist and former Collingwood player who invented the now wildly popular XBlade football boots but claims he was “backstabbed in the corporate room … and was left with a lot of debt and owed a lot of money”. Nonetheless he has brought up a confident son.

Not too many white guys can rock dreadlocks but Gryan does. He also specialises in sharp retorts to Facebook sledges. In response to Useless AFL Stats’ jab at his expense he replied: “Will also be the first time a Gryan wins a Norm Smith …”

He’s offering $81 on the TAB.

Smith’s medal to lose

Almost unbackable for the NRL’s Clive Churchill Medal is the Storm’s is-he, isn’t-he retiring captain Cameron Smith.

The 37-year-old is $3.75 with the TAB to be named player of the grand final — and we’ll happily take those odds regardless of who we think wins the game.

It’s the only honour missing from Smith’s career and that is something the judges will find irresistible. The only thing surer than Smith getting his “Clive” is that he’ll be joining the ranks of The Immortals. And therein lies a nice little omen for Melbourne fans.

Every time an Immortal has farewelled the NSWRL/NRL in the final game of the season, they have won the premiership.

Of those 13, there’s only two who had the chance. Dally Messenger played in the 1913 Eastern Suburbs side that became premier in the pre-grand final era. He missed the premiership-deciding game against Souths and Easts lost their final game of the year a week later but Messenger was farewelled in that game as a premier.

In 1994, Mal Meninga scored a memorable try as Canberra defeated Canterbury 36-12. Is Smith the next? You can bet on it.

BC’s tips of the week

Brendan Cormick says:“Sneaky Five can make a winning debut at The Valley (R2, No 14) and, at the risk of sounding like I’ve been nudging the goon, I’m tipping a form reversal from Master Of Wine in a wet Cox Plate (R9, No 4).”