Stats prove Arsenal are better than it looks, insists Mikel Arteta

Mikel Arteta attempted to use data to prove that performances, if not results, have improved on his watch at Arsenal.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has played the numbers game to justify his position

It has long been a sign that an English Premier League manager is feeling the strain when they arrive at their press conference armed with prepared evidence to support their arguments.

Who could forget the moment in 2009 when Rafa Benitez, then in charge of Liverpool and locked in a battle for the Premier League title with Manchester United, reeled off a list of “facts” aimed at showing how referees were favouring Sir Alex Ferguson’s side?

Or in 2016 when Jose Mourinho, having been unveiled at Old Trafford and facing barbs about his failure to promote promising youngsters, produced a list of 49 players he claimed to have blooded in first teams throughout his career.

Now it’s Mikel Arteta’s turn to play the numbers game. With his team in the grip of their worst start to a campaign since 1974 and facing a pivotal week that begins with a Carabao Cup quarter-final against Manchester City on Tuesday night, the Arsenal manager attempted to use data to prove that performances, if not results, have improved on his watch.

“When you look at the perspective of how we are losing football matches and how we are where we are, it is pretty incredible,” Arteta said. “Last year we won the game against Everton with a 25 per cent chance of winning, you win 3-2.

“Last weekend (a 2-1 defeat by Everton), it was a 67 per cent chance of winning … and a 9 per cent chance of losing, and you lose. Three per cent against Burnley and you lose, 7 per cent against Spurs and you lose.

“But then football is not like basketball where you shoot 50 times and the opponent shoots once so you win every time. It doesn’t work like that in football. It can be the opposite. We lost 1-0 against Burnley conceding zero shots on target. Unfortunately, that happens in football and you have to be able to control those things.

“It’s pretty tricky but I’m telling you last year we were winning games with 25 per cent chance of winning, but we were so efficient when we got into the positions. But if you are constantly in the 60s and 70s long term you are going to win many more matches and this is what we have to try to do and sustain that and still improve because there is always a reason why you don’t win.”

It was a statement that has left supporters baffled. Arsenal may have enjoyed the lion’s share of possession in Saturday’s defeat at Goodison Park — 58 per cent to Everton’s 42 — and had four more attempts than their opponents, yet it is misleading to imply that Arsenal’s predicament is based merely on a failure to convert chances.

Arsenal average only 3.3 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, the fourth-worst figure in the division.

Arteta suggested that an overreliance on striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to convert chances had enabled them to win matches in which they had been second best. It was two goals from Aubameyang that sealed the 3-2 victory over Everton in February to which Arteta had referred — a match in which Arsenal had been outshot by 17 attempts to nine.

“What has been sustaining the team in the last two seasons as well is that our conversion rate and expected goals was much higher than it was supposed to be,” Arteta said. “Now it is much lower. So that is a big gap and a lot of points at the end. We need to completely change that straight away and find ways to score goals even when the opportunities are not that clear, because that is what gives teams more points and the big teams the opportunity to win a game at any moment.”

Aubameyang was also the hero in last season’s FA Cup semi-final against Tuesday night’s opponents, Manchester City, finding the net twice to secure a brilliant smash-and-grab victory after Arsenal had been restricted to just 29 per cent possession.

This season Aubameyang has managed only three goals and one assist in 13 appearances, with Arsenal’s slide down the table coinciding with a reduction in productivity from the striker. He will be absent from the City game with a calf injury that also ruled him out of the weekend’s defeat against Everton, with Arteta unable to give a return date before another scan this week.

Tuesday’s game also reunites Arteta with Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola. Arteta was Guardiola’s assistant at City before departing for Arsenal in December 2019, and has described his former mentor’s importance.

“He has been incredibly supportive all of the time,” Arteta said. “We are always in contact. He is a really important person in my life and him and other people who are really close to me have been really supportive and given me strength and a lot of good advice, I think.”

Guardiola, who is aiming to win his fourth successive Carabao Cup, is ready to hand Sergio Aguero only his fourth start of the season. The 32-year-old striker has made three appearances off the bench since recovering from a hamstring problem last month.

American goalkeeper Zack Steffen has started in all of City’s previous Carabao Cup games and is expected to return to the side on Tuesday. Guardiola could recall Fernandinho, Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez, who were all on the bench for the 1-0 win over Southampton on Saturday.

Raheem Sterling admits City must start scoring more goals if they are to climb the table and fight for silverware. City are the lowest scorers in the top half of the Premier League, with 19 goals after 13 games.

“I understand that the attackers need to step up and in the next couple of weeks we will do just that,” he said. “We know we are a team that can score goals but at the minute the goals haven’t been going our way.”

The Times