Olyroos face crunch game against South Korea in Olympic qualifying bid

For the Olyroos the maths is simple. Beat South Korea tomorrow night to advance to the next stage of Olympic qualifying.

Olyroos coach Graham Arnold. Picture: Getty Images

You might need to have the mind of the best mathematician in the world to sort out the Asian Football Confederation’s complicated qualifying system for next year’s Tokyo Olympics, but for the Olyroos, the equation is simple.

A win or a draw for Graham Arnold’s men against South Korea in their final group match in Cambodia tomorrow night will guarantee them a spot in the next stage of the qualification process to be held in Thailand in January, next year.

But it gets a bit more complicated after that if Australia lose to the Koreans, because that will leave their fate in the hands of the results of games in the other 10 groups, with the situation likely to get down to a matter of goal difference.

Under the AFC’s system, the 11 group winners will automatically qualify for the 16-team final stage. The four best second-placed teams also go through.

The fifth-best second-placed team from the 11 groups will also qualify should Thailand — who have qualified automatically for the tournament as hosts — finish as either Group K winners or runners-up.

As it stands now, Australia (plus 12) are second in their group behind the Koreans (plus 13) with both teams on six points after two wins apiece.

The Olyroos’ goal difference puts them on top of a table of all the second-placed teams that includes Myanmar (plus 11), Bahrain and Palestine (plus 10), Saudi Arabia (plus 9), Iran (plus 5), Syria and Malaysia (plus 4).

The others issue is that goal difference may not even come into play if Australia lose against the Koreans.

As a result of the many lopsided games in this tournament, there are eight groups where the top two teams, who are all on six points and face each other in the deciding game, could finish on seven points if they draw.

If that happens in four of the groups, or five depending on Thailand’s result, then the Olyroos will be eliminated.

Needless to say, Arnold and his team are thinking of nothing less than getting all three points against a quality Korean side that has had the benefit of a comprehensive preparation, in stark contrast to the Australians.

Arnold only got his squad together a little over a week ago for a camp in Vietnam, where they played two friendlies amid a backdrop of discontent from several A-League clubs upset with having lost a number of key players for one match.

The Olyroos will be coming off successive 6-0 wins over hosts Cambodia and Chinese Taipei, the latter on Sunday night when Arnold made 10 changes to the side that beat Cambodia on Friday night.

Australia were never troubled by Chinese Taipei having led 3-0 at halftime through a brace from Western Sydney Wanderers attacker Abraham Majok and a goal from Melbourne Victory defender Thomas Deng.

They added another three in the second half and could have reached double figures had they taken all their chances.

Arnold, who rested several key players, is expected to make a host of changes for tomorrow night’s game.