Prior the likely casualty as England forced to regroup

ENGLAND must be seen taking steps to address the crisis of their Ashes tour in the Boxing Day Test match.

HUMILIATED on the pitch and harangued off it, England must be seen taking steps to address the crisis of their Ashes tour in the Boxing Day Test match.

And, as was the case at the corresponding point of the disastrous 2006-07 mission, 3-0 down going into Melbourne and the Ashes already surrendered, the likeliest casualty is the wicketkeeper.

Then it was Geraint Jones, who never played for England again, though his replacement Chris Read failed to prevent a whitewash and lasted only two matches.

Now it is Matt Prior. Whether his understudy Jonny Bairstow can help turn the tide or make the position his own may prove an equally tough challenge.

Prior's poor performance in Perth makes him the most obvious player to be ditched, although Alastair Cook will be loath to drop his vice-captain, someone with whom he has played 60 Tests dating back to March, 2009.

England may be forced into another change if Stuart Broad's damaged right foot fails to recover in time. He remains optimistic of taking his place at the MCG on Thursday. Playing him would represent a gamble but Broad has been England's best bowler this year and the team won't want to be without him.

One positive step would be to tweak the batting order by moving Ian Bell up to No 3, rather than dropping Cook down there from No 1, as has been mooted, because of the view that your best players should be early to the crease.

The stronger England can start, the more likely it is to get a big score out of Kevin Pietersen batting at No 4.

Graeme Swann's shock announcement that he is retiring from all cricket immediately, opens the door for Monty Panesar to lead the spin attack.

If Bairstow plays he will have gained his opportunity by default. If he fails to take it he may not be afforded another chance as England is keenly monitoring the progress of Jos Buttler, their one-day keeper.

Bairstow's average of 30.2 from 12 Tests is insufficient as a specialist batsman and would be inadequate as a batsman-keeper (Prior averages 40.8).

If Broad is unfit, his absence would make an opening for Boyd Rankin to win a first Test cap. He will have to convince the management that he won't be fazed by performing in front of the biggest crowd any cricketer usually experiences. Even in 2010, when Australia was unfancied, the Boxing Day attendance topped 84,000, so this time, with England under the cosh, it could well be higher still.

Australia's opening bat Chris Rogers, who has never played a Boxing Day Test, concedes it could be an eye-opener.

"To go out and bat in front of what may be a world record crowd (the record is 90,800) would be daunting but amazing as well. Facing the first ball on day one could be a little scary (but) to have that honour would be fantastic."

If England wins the toss, Rogers may get his wish because there is evidence that bowling first at the MCG brings dividends.

In the most recent Sheffield Shield match there, Victoria was bowled out in 45.3 overs for 118 and South Australia were ahead before close of play, a close parallel to the ascendancy England established on day one in 2010, when Australia was dismissed for 98 and Cook and Andrew Strauss posted 157 before stumps.

Australia's three wins in this series and England's three at home in the summer were all achieved after winning the toss.

Rogers said Australia would not want for motivation even though it led 3-0 and the Ashes were secure.

"We still see it a little bit as 3-3 so it would be nice to win these last two," he said. "We didn't think (losing) 3-0 in England was a fair result but if we finish this series 4-3 or 5-3 up we'd be happy with that.

"There'll be no complacency. There's a lot of passion in this side and we want to keep beating the English."

THE SUNDAY TIMES