NBL semi finals analysis: Which team has what it takes to go all the way?
NBL25 is well and truly at the pointy end of the season, MATT LOGUE and MICHAEL RANDALL analyse the final four ahead of the first semi final tip off on Thursday night.
The NBL semi finals are tipping off on Thursday night, take a deep dive analysis into the remaining four teams.
ILLAWARRA HAWKS (1) V SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE PHOENIX (4)
HAWKS
Strengths: Balanced roster, team chemistry, coaching excellence, elite firepower, hunger, Tyler Harvey.
Weaknesses: Late-game execution, Injury concerns, struggles against SEM.
Final word: Title favourites for good reason. What a special season it’s been in the ‘Gong. The Hawks finished as minor premiers for the first time in their 43-year history, Justin Tatum was named Coach of the Year and this team goes into the semi-finals as the top seed, less than two years after they won just three games and finished on the bottom of the ladder.
This season, the Hawks are by far the best offensive team in the NBL, averaging 125.2 points per 100 possessions, and they look after the ball better than any team in NBL history, turning it over just 9.6 times per game.
Ball security means more shots and less transition opportunities, something South East Melbourne thrives on (fourth in fast-break points, third in points off turnover).
Part of the reason for that is talent but a bigger reason is togetherness.
This group genuinely loves playing together and they are all on the same page, pulled together by the charismatic Tatum.
Hawks’ superstar Tyler Harvey absolutely plunders the Phoenix, averaging 20.1 points on 4 three-point makes per game, and those are going in at nearly 55 per cent.
There’s a little question mark over the durability of All-NBL First Team guard Trey Kell.
He’s been sore late in the season and the Hawks will hope the 20-day break between games will ensure he is tip-top.
Dealing with that break will be vital, given the potential for it to kill some of the momentum the Hawks built over their dominant season. The Hawks can tighten up when contests get down to the wire – they’ve had a heap of blowouts but are 2-6 in games decided by 5 points or less. Will they hold up when the going gets really tough in a playoff atmosphere?
They’ll have to negotiate a tough, well-oiled Phoenix machine that holds the season ledger 2-1 – the margins a six-point win and losses of 3 and 5 indicating this series could be a genuine cliffhanger.
PHOENIX
Strengths: Fitness, offensive potency, defensive organisation, depth, Josh King, Matt Hurt, Derrick Walton Jr, Joe Wieskamp.
Weaknesses: Propensity for costly lapses, three-point volume v accuracy, rim protection, Derrick Walton Jr.
Final word: This team plays with the energy coach Josh King brings on the sideline. It’s non-stop, breakneck, get out, run, get up in the face of their opponents and grind them into the court.
And the Phoenix are playing with the house’s money after starting the season 0-5, reviving under a change of coach and then facing a straight sets finals exit when they were 19 down at halftime of their elimination clash with Adelaide.
But they came from the clouds, swung that game to a 10-point win and now get the chance to face an Illawarra team that will wear all the pressure.
The Phoenix are one of only three teams to beat Illawarra on their home court this season and one of only two – the other being the 36ers – who hold a winning record against the Hawks. Import Joe Wieskamp has had an up-and-down season but he’s saved his best for the Hawks, a career-high 22 points among an average of 17 at nearly 60 per cent from the field – up from his season marks of 10 at 43 per cent.
MVP finalist Hurt has been a monster inside and his battle with Hawks’ giant Sam Froling will be crucial. As much as eyes will be on Illawarra’s Trey Kell, so too will they be on Derrick Walton Jr.
All signs point to the former NBA man being ready to go for game one but, after eight weeks on the sidelines, can he produce his best and lead the Phoenix to the grand final?
Focus has been a big issue for the Phoenix throughout their rise. They’ve squandered big leads against Perth and Sydney.
Nine times this season, the Phoenix have surrendered double digit leads, including capitulations of 18 against Sydney and 15 against Illawarra. Maintaining the rage for as long of the full 40 minutes as possible is a massive challenge against the Hawks.
South East Melbourne desperately needs to tune its radar. The Phoenix launch it from deep 32 times a game, second behind Melbourne United, but they shoot the three-ball at just 33.6 per cent – second last in NBL25 behind only the New Zealand Breakers.
Get that right and they’ll have one foot in the decider.
MELBOURNE UNITED (2) v PERTH WILDCATS (3)
UNITED
Strengths: Experience, depth, system, defensive prowess, Chris Goulding.
Weaknesses: Aging bodies, injury, offensive inconsistency, individual shot creation.
Final word: Age shall not weary them, the championship experience is there, stay healthy and they’re right in it.
Oh, and United have the Cotton-stopper Shea Ili. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has been Superman Bryce Cotton’s Kryptonite.
In 16 meetings between the two teams when both Cotton and Ili have played, United is 10-6 and, in round three, the Kiwi produced his defensive magnum opus, holding Cotton to just 5 points – all in the first quarter – in a 29-point demolition.
At 12-4 after 11 rounds, United looked the team to beat. Then, the wheels fell off in a distinctly un-United-y stretch of five losses in six games.
But, with the double chance at stake, Dean Vickerman’s men steadied the ship, reeling off six wins from their last seven games, including their last four to go into a 19-day break full of confidence.
Everywhere you look in Melbourne, there are winners, from Boomers legends Chris Goulding and Matthew Dellavedova, to NBA champion Ian Clark, to NBL title-winners Ili, Jack White and Marcus Lee, these guys eat pressure.
United’s theory will be ‘stop Cotton, win the game’, defensively but, at the other end, it’s ‘divide and conquer’ – with hopefully a healthy dose of Goulding long-range bombs.
Wildcats coach John Rillie probably still has a little PTSD from the historic night Goulding poured in a ridiculous 25 points in one quarter on his way to 46 against the Wildcats earlier this season.
If Goulding gets off the leash, this series could be over very quickly. Even if he doesn’t Melbourne’s system means an assortment of characters is able to bob up with matchwinning offensive efforts.
Goulding’s 18.6 per game leads six players with double-digit scoring averages – more than any other team.
Persistent back soreness that hampered White toward the end of the season is another worry for United – they need him fit, firing and crashing the glass to be a chance of keeping the Cat’s tall timber in check.
WILDCATS
Strengths: Bryce Cotton, offensive firepower, championship pedigree, health.
Weaknesses: Defence, reliance on Cotton, Shea Ili, history.
Final word: Bryce.
Can we leave it at that? If this is the out-of-contract legend’s last dance in Perth, you can guarantee he’ll want to go out with a bang and, given his struggles against Ili, expect him to unveil something different.
The five-time MVP’s greatness stems from his ability to find a way against the odds.
While there is a heavy, heavy reliance on their superstar, the Wildcats are far from a one-man band.
American forward Kristian Doolittle is one of the premier imports in the NBL, dominating the glass as one of the few high-level Wildcat defenders.
Dylan Windler has been a barometer for the Red Army and Keanu Pinder has discovered some devastating form – arguably the best of his career – and it is perhaps he, more than anyone, who can tip the scales alongside Bryce.
Pinder’s 35-point, 11-rebound, 3 assist, 2 block tour de force against South East Melbourne to book the Wildcats’ semi final date with United might be the best performance of any NBL player not named Cotton this season.
If he gets anywhere near that, it could be curtains for United.
Apart from Cotton’s big Ili issue, the Wildcats have another problem – Melbourne is, without a shadow of a doubt, the Red Army’s bogey team.
Since December 2019, these two teams have met 22 times. The Wildcats have won just five of those games to United’s 17. It gets worse in the jungle, too – they’ve lost 10 of the last 11 on their home RAC Arena in Perth.
The playoffs are as good a time as any – but also the hardest time – to reverse a trend, right?
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