Wreck it Ralph: The nuclear option to fast-track a rise up the ladder next year for the 10 non-finalists
The AFL exchange period is almost here – and it’s an important time for the 10 clubs who missed finals. These are the moves, deals and list calls your team should make to bounce back.
The Western Bulldogs crashed out of finals contention with a deeply disappointing season but would feel like they are within touching distance of the AFL’s elite contenders.
Other clubs like Essendon were handed severe reality checks about how mediocre they really are.
As the silly season of trade, draft and free agency kicks off, there are huge decisions ahead for 10 AFL clubs.
Some will believe natural improvement will get them into September next year.
Others will consider the nuclear option – hand over salary cap space built up over multiple years for a big splash on a free agent or even trade a big name to prioritise other areas.
What is the possible nuclear option for your club after it finished the regular season out of finals contention?
9TH: WESTERN BULLDOGS
The coaching department rejig has already started with Rohan Smith gone and Marc Webb likely to head back to Perth to reunite with his wife Lisa, the Fremantle AFLW coach.
So, for footy boss Chris Grant, it is time to loosen the purse strings and hunt for an absolutely elite tactical coach to add depth alongside current senior assistant Brendon Lade, who is well regarded.
Is it a Justin Leppitsch type, or Andrew McQualter if he falls out of contention for Richmond’s senior job?
Luke Beveridge should hop on a flight to Brisbane at the earliest opportunity post-finals and have a coffee with Josh Dunkley to find out every reason behind him leaving. After 12 months he might be prepared to be more open than about his exit.
Board member Luke Darcy painted his departure as nothing more than a change of scenery on Friday night, but no one believes that is true.
He grew tired of some teammates who were not as professional as he was.
So, have every one of his concerns been addressed in the past 12 months?
There are rumblings from players that the Beveridge message did not have the snap, crackle and pop of recent seasons, so the coach will have to take that on board.
The Dogs have shut down talk of trading Bailey Smith, who played high half-forward for much of the year.
Amid the smoke and mirrors this much is true – he clearly believes he should be playing more midfield, so it is up to Beveridge to communicate to him the areas of his game he must work on to allow that to happen next year.
Clearly that is a work in progress, given he is considering his future.
One more query: if the Dogs haven’t asked the question of Eagles defender Jeremy McGovern to help round out their defence, why not?
10TH: ADELAIDE
Sign up the coach first thing.
Ignore the overall record from Matthew Nicks and concentrate on the natural growth – three wins, seven wins, eight wins, 11 wins.
The season included losses by one point (Sydney after the Ben Keays non-goal), six points (Brisbane), four points (Melbourne), two points (Collingwood) and one point (Collingwood again).
Clearly they would believe they should be playing finals, but it’s time to get over the losers limp and not wallow in pity all summer.
Adelaide was well within its rights to take free agent defender Tom Doedee’s offer off the table post-knee surgery and offer him a much less lucrative deal.
But football clubs are sensitive places, and he is such a popular player as a leadership group member they would do well to realise the effect nudging him out the door would have on his fellow players.
Same goes for Matt Crouch, who wants to stay.
Even if they hadn’t budgeted for retaining him, they have to make it happen.
In his last five games he had 22 possessions and seven clearances, 32 possessions and 12 clearances, 31 possessions and four clearances, 33 possessions and nine clearances, 26 possessions and six clearances and 31 possessions and six clearances.
Sign him up quick smart.
11TH: ESSENDON
Jake Stringer will be 30 on Anzac Day next year.
He is coming off plantar fascia surgery after another disappointing year.
Essendon is playing the long game with its list build, so the Bombers might not be in the premiership window for three years.
It means Stringer will miss that window.
Why wouldn’t they field offers for him even if he eventually stays if they can’t find a suitor.
The worst result is a cattle prod to his rear end to show him he is not untouchable.
Essendon tried to show him some tough love when they played him in the VFL this year, then they played him as the sub when he wasn’t fit in another mixed message.
New CEO Craig Vozzo’s approach to not overpaying players is commendable in theory.
But even if the Dons sign up Darcy Parish, they could still lose back-up ruckman Nick Bryan along with key back Brandon Zerk-Thatcher.
Their only option as a full-back cannot be Zach Reid, who is back running after hamstring surgery but has the durability so far of former Australian cricketer Bruce Reid.
They don’t seem to want to commit $800,000 a year to free agent Ben McKay, but they have the trump card of being a Victorian club close to finals as he ponders Sydney and Hawthorn’s interest.
Time to pay up for that key back they have wanted for so long?
12TH: GEELONG
Geelong chief executive Steve Hocking admitted post-match on Saturday night the club’s midfield was too thin.
Patrick Dangerfield is 33, Mark Blicavs is 32, Mitch Duncan is 32, Isaac Smith and Sam Menegola are gone and Cam Guthrie is 30.
The Cats are looking for a stopgap ruckman given Toby Conway might need 24 months before he assumes the mantle of No.1 ruck, with Chris Scott saying on Saturday night he and the players believed he could be “special”.
What a big call for the Brad Ottens clone.
Instead of haggling with Dogs list boss Sam Power on a Bailey Smith trade – he is in contract and required so they would surely pay overs – make Darcy Parish the priority unless he signs with Essendon in coming days as he suggested on Monday.
He might cost $800,000 plus over six years but he only turned 26 last month, so at least make sure he is happy at the Dons.
Then ask for Port Adelaide’s future first-rounder for Esava Ratugolea and also push for maximum compensation when Brandan Parfitt leaves.
It would allow the Cats to stock up their midfield without handing over a draft pick and again go into the draft in a meaningful way with picks that include the current No.7 selection.
13TH: RICHMOND
Lance Franklin just retired at 36, and only because his body was failing him.
Scott Pendlebury, Todd Goldstein, Tom Hawkins, Shannon Hurn and Travis Boak have all had relatively strong seasons at age 35.
The message – sign up 32-year-old Dustin Martin now past 2024.
Gold Coast has gone cold on its interest and Martin won’t want to go into next year unsigned as an unrestricted free agent.
If Richmond wants to continue to contend next year it must be with a committed Martin who is not worrying about his future as a player able to walk to a new home at season’s end.
In the last 10 weeks of the season he was still Richmond’s best player as the All-Australian committee ponders his inclusion on Monday.
If the Tigers could lock him away until 2026 on a total deal of $2.8 million (including next year’s $1.3-$1.4 million) they would still be repaid in spades.
Just like they have every time with Martin.
The green shoots finally came through on Sunday with players like Thomson Dow, Sam Banks, Tom Brown and James Trezise, but it will be a long, dark 2024 if Martin departs for a rival club and Tom Lynch can’t get on the park.
14TH: FREMANTLE
The Dockers believe natural improvement will get them into September next year after a season where they often played the third-youngest list.
Justin Longmuir will need his coaching staff to give him some tough love.
Is he adventurous enough with his ball movement, his positional changes, his selection decisions?
And he will need to ask the very hard questions about his ruck stocks.
It’s not as easy as trading Sean Darcy to allow Luke Jackson to flourish.
But in the six games Darcy was injured in the back end of the year, Jackson exploded.
It wasn’t just the possession tallies – 14, 16, 24, 19, 11, 15 – it was the hitouts to advantage – 13, 5, 13, 7, 14, 7.
The Dockers will have to ask whether spending $900,000 a year on Darcy – and $1.8 million on a ruck pairing – will win them a premiership.
The issue is trading pre-agent Darcy would still require them to find a back-up like Essendon’s Nick Bryan or GWS free agent Matt Flynn, so the actual saving might be half that $900,000 figure.
Still, there is huge improvement to come from this list, Jye Amiss is a star (41 goals), the backline is set and the Dockers appear to be on a premiership build.
15TH: GOLD COAST
The idea of clubs clamouring over Tarryn Thomas sits uneasily given how chequered his past has been and the Roos’ devotion to actually turning him into a better person.
But in the ruthless game that is the AFL, clubs will try to lure Thomas out of Arden St because he is a sublime talent.
Gold Coast finished the year with another whimper, losing its last four games.
In their 13-year history they have won just five total games across the last three rounds of all seasons.
So as bullish as Damien Hardwick is about winning a flag in his six-year era, the premiership window is not next year, it is 2025 onwards for the next half decade.
It is why the Suns would be better placed coming hard for Thomas instead of Dustin Martin, even if they believe Martin has 60 good games in him.
Thomas is just 23, put together an exceptional last month of the season and is a rare talent.
He is the type of player the Suns need – a pacy half-forward who can kick goals and win centre-square clearances.
Hardwick would believe he is the kind of chance he could take after working hard with players like Marlion Pickett and Sydney Stack, who have chequered pasts.
16TH: HAWTHORN
The Hawks will stop paying up to $750,000 for Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell next season, so they should have more cap space than anyone in the competition.
The clear need is a key back, and the Hawks are keen on North Melbourne free agent Ben McKay.
They don’t have second or third-round draft picks because of the Josh Weddle trade, and Sydney at this stage is the favourite for McKay.
Here is the Hawks’ pitch: play alongside James Sicily and he will make you look like a superhero defender when he flies over the top to intercept just when your man has you beaten.
Clearly they would need to top Sydney’s offer.
That is the nuclear option, paying him $850,000 over five or six years.
Mitch Lewis missed the last fortnight, and in their last three games the Hawks kicked 67, 60 and 56 points. The looked impotent without him as their leading target and had to throw James Sicily forward at times.
The issue is there are almost no key talls on the market, so the Hawks might have to wait another 12 months to secure a Lewis foil.
Gold Coast VFL forward Chris Burgess kicked 51 goals this year and has Jed Walter incoming, so surely clubs like Hawthorn and Richmond will kick his tyres.
17TH: NORTH MELBOURNE
The Roos already look better on paper next year if they can bring in Sydney’s Dylan Stephens and Lewis Melican and take picks 2, 3 and 16 as well as any AFL draft assistance they might hand them in grand final week.
Even though they lost the No.1 overall pick with their fighting performance against Gold Coast, they can still benefit from their draft hand.
If Melbourne pushes hard to trade for Harley Reid the Dees would only be able to offer up pick 5 (the Fremantle Luke Jackson selection) as their best early selection along with multiple early picks in a trade package.
There has to be a way for West Coast to give up the No.1 pick to Melbourne, the Eagles to guarantee access to key back Daniel Curtin with pick 2 as well as significantly stiffening their draft hand, North Melbourne to secure an extra early selection by shuffling down to picks 3 and 4 and everyone winning.
Alastair Clarkson said there is no silver bullet to fast-tracking the club’s rebuild.
But having three picks within 16, then securing NGA prospect Ryley Sanders, while also securing an extra selection so they shuffle back another pick or two to allow West Coast clear access to Curtin, is pretty close.
18TH: WEST COAST
Gold Coast will add three of the best kids in the land (Jed Walter, Ethan Read, Jake Rogers) this year to a line-up stacked with talent.
Geelong will have pick 7 and might secure Darcy Parish as a free agent.
If the Eagles believe they can build towards relevance again they cannot simply take their current picks 1, 19, 35 (Port Adelaide’s second-rounder) and hope they might one day be better.
Every single option has to be on the table.
Trading Jeremy McGovern if a suitor emergences.
Trading Elliot Yeo, who wants to stay.
Dragging a star player or an emerging tall like Essendon ruckman Nick Bryan through the pre-season draft to save a draft pick, even if it means paying them overs.
Trading pick 1 to Melbourne if it they can secure three top-15 selections.
Playing hard ball with Hawthorn as they secure Tyler Brockman, who wants to play with the Eagles.
They have now made the call to back Adam Simpson, giving players clarity about who will be in charge.
The next question is whether they look at finding a successor, who he trains up before departing to secure an orderly transition.
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