Wreck It Ralph: The big AFL list management questions ahead of the trade and free agency period
Do the Bombers spend their capital on trading in a big name defender, or do they have their next star stopper already? Jon Ralph answers the big list questions.
Some clubs are facing crucial list management decisions as we enter the back half of the 2023 season.
Which clubs will get their hand on a prized free-agent? Do the Bombers need another defender and can Carlton turn a possible exit into a positive?
Jon Ralph looks at five burning list questions.
Does GWS get into the race for Harley Reid or match a huge deal for Harry Himmelberg?
GWS boss David Matthews said on SEN Radio on Sunday the Giants were very confident local product Himmelberg wanted to stay, while also leaving open the possibility of trying to secure the No.1 overall pick.
But the Giants have just realigned their salary cap position.
Can they afford to match a $750,000 offer for Himmelberg?
Without him, their back line looks strong with Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley and Connor Idun, while last year’s No. 1 pick Aaron Cadman is showing signs at the other end of the ground, as Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene stand tall.
If they secured first-round compensation, they would have picks four (their own pick), five (the compo pick) and seven (from the Jacob Hopper trade).
The Giants would not only have a compelling pitch for the No.1 pick – and Harley Reid) – they would save $600,000 a year in salary space for the next five years.
Does Essendon need a star full back or are they finding a home-grown one?
Jordan Ridley commanded the air against North Melbourne, taking five intercept marks and winning 10 intercept possessions.
But Essendon would have, ideally, seen Zach Reid for eight weeks at senior level to assess his progress as their long-term full back.
Instead, he’s still a fortnight away from a VFL return with a hamstring strain.
So do they need to give up an early pick, or a big chunk of their salary cap, for a bona fide defensive star?
The Bombers have seen real progress in Brandon Zerk-Thatcher but some stars like Tom Hawkins have also got a hold of him.
Big key forwards have got to Essendon at times this year – Hawkins kicked eight goals (mostly on Zerk-Thatcher), Joe Daniher six (mostly on Kaine Baldwin), Oscar Allen four (mostly on Zerk-Thatcher), Jeremy Cameron three and Harry Himmelberg three.
So, it’s not terrible, and Champion Data has them ranked 10th for giving up goals to key forwards.
As Brad Scott made clear after Sunday’s win, the Dons are still very young, so when is the right time to use their cap space and on what type of player?
Does Richmond need a Jack Riewoldt replacement?
Tom Lynch might be back for the last month of the AFL season, although he didn’t seem hugely optimistic late last week about how quickly he was progressing.
With Lynch on deck for round 1 next year, and Jack Riewoldt almost certainly retired, who is the ex-Gold Coast forward’s wingman?
Samson Ryan has massive upside — 12 goals in 11 weeks and halving the decisive contest to allow Marlion Pickett to kick the match-winner on Sunday — but he is a baby in footy terms.
So how hard does Richmond go for a Harry Himmelberg-type second forward?
Or is it prepared for a year of growing pains as Ryan gets chances and flankers like Noah Cumberland and Judson Clark (a remarkably accurate 9.1 this year) develop?
Lynch isn’t exactly injury prone, but he has only played 20 or more games once since 2016 – with season tallies of 19, 10, 25, 19, 18, 19 and four (this year) since then.
Richmond needs a foil for Lynch – and it doesn’t have a first-round pick – so how do the Tigers find one if Himmelberg stays put?
How do you fix the Eagles?
Adam Simpson keeps talking about the time he might get his best playing list together.
But it is a false economy because those players are all incredibly injury-prone.
Among them are Luke Shuey (28 games since the start of 2021), Nic Naitanui (52 games since the start of 2019), and Elliot Yeo (31 games since the start of 2020).
Yeo was extraordinary against Collingwood — the barnstorming model of old with 26 touches and 84 per cent kicking efficiency, seven clearances, six score involvements and plenty of swagger.
But he turns 30 on October 1.
It’s certain he won’t be there when West Coast is a contender again, given the expected length of the Eagles rebuild.
He will help Simpson keep his job and he might even drag the Eagles out of the bottom four.
But from a list management perspective, that game is enough to lure in a rival who sees what he could be with an immediate premiership contender.
Whether by splitting the No.1 overall pick for multiple early selections, or considering a Yeo or McGovern trade, the Eagles must be bold and innovative and even risky.
The Bulldogs gave up pick 30 and a future second-rounder for Rory Lobb — who turned 30 in February — so clubs will give up quality picks for 30-year-olds if they believe they can win them a flag.
Are there positives in a possible TDK exit?
Carlton isn’t blowing up its list, but could the departure of Tom De Koning be a win-win that allows it to find the elite ball user it needs in the midfield?
Carlton’s big problem is the runners, who are supposed to be breaking the lines, are having terrible years with Sherrin in hand.
Matt Cottrell is running at 54 per cent, Blake Acres at 66 per cent but with some horror turnovers and Sam Walsh at 63 per cent, with only 304 metres gained per match.
Ollie Hollands was running at just 60 per cent kicking efficiency until his collarbone injury, but he can improve given he’s a first-year player.
Champion Data’s kick ratings have Cottrell negative six per cent, Hollands at negative five per cent, Patrick Cripps at negative four per cent, while Acres is at only negative two per cent.
If De Koning isn’t keen to sign over the bye, his contract talks are likely to take place at season’s end, with multiple suitors including Sydney, Geelong and St Kilda.
But not only would the Blues receive a high pick — they would ask for a mid first-rounder, rivals would offer a second and the haggling would begin — they would clear $600,000 of cap space they expected to use on De Koning.
They could consider a quality ball user like free agent Jade Gresham or classy half back like Miles Bergman to help Adam Saad provide half-back bounce.
The points is that they would have options instead of paying $600,000 plus for a second ruckman, who they don’t really want to play alongside Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay.
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