Wreck It Ralph: All the big fixture questions ahead of Round 16-23 release

AFL clubs have one final chance to show the fixture boss what they’ve got before next week’s release. Jon Ralph looks closely at how it’s all shaping up here.

AFL scheduling boss Josh Bowler must be sorely tempted to put Fremantle in Fixture Jail.

As the AFL spends the week finalising a round 16-23 fixture set to be released in the days after round 9, the recency bias of their loss to St Kilda would be front of mind for the AFL fixture boss.

St Kilda and Fremantle were awarded a Friday night clash at Marvel Stadium this weekend and watching from the boundary line it was apparent it landed with a giant thud.

St Kilda was brilliant.

They did what St Kilda do at its best – they took away their opponent’s best attributes, made the most of a limited forward line and ground out an impressive win.

It also kicked 94 points – its third highest tally this year after 135 against Richmond and 98 against Geelong.

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Fremantle are on the verge of fixture jail. Picture: Getty Images

But the game was particularly flat and not just because Fremantle was pathetic.

The game attracted a crowd of only 20,522 and so as the Dockers kicked two goals in the first three quarters the atmosphere wasn’t sadly lacking.

It was non-existent.

And yet as the Dockers try to bounce back against Collingwood on Thursday they would argue in four of eight games this year they have kicked 97 or more points.

Therein lies Bowler’s challenge as the league considers one more week of evidence before considering the round 16-23 fixture.

Instead of eight Friday nights and potentially one or two Thursday night games across the byes, he has to find 16 prime time fixtures with Thursday football now every round.

So how does he conjure 16 blockbuster clashes from out of his hat when there are seemingly so many mediocre sides and so many limitations on five-day breaks?

Collingwood vs. Geelong was the match of the season but couldn’t be a Friday nighter because the Cats had played the previous Sunday compared to Collingwood’s Friday Anzac Day clash.

It would have broken the AFL’s promise not to give a team playing off a five-day break two less days of recovery over their rival.

And as it happened Essendon vs. North Melbourne was reasonably entertaining and Fox Footy got the cracker of the round.

So Bowler is juggling a million balls in the air.

And this weekend shapes as a huge indicator for him and his fixture team given he will be closely scrutinising at least four sides.

He will release his fixture next week navigating a handful of key challenges.

The Blues are at risk of missing out on prime-time slots. Picture: Getty Images

THE CHALLENGES

•How the hell do you trust Carlton or Melbourne given both have shown in recent years they can challenge or have the bottom inexplicably fall out of their season?

•Does Fremantle join a handful of clubs already in fixture jail?

•How does he try to lessen the number of five-day breaks for clubs given the two clubs (Brisbane and Adelaide) who have had five day breaks over a rival with a greater break have run out of puff?

•Does the AFL keep rewarding clubs like North Melbourne with the odd prime time encounter given their best is solid (a three point loss to Essendon last Thursday) and their worst is an 82-point Good Friday clash against Carlton?

•How does he eventually lock in Gold Coast and Carlton across two round 24 games given Essendon has already had two five-day breaks and might also need to be given two across that extended fixture?

THE ROAD AHEAD

This weekend Fremantle takes on Collingwood at home and if they put in another damp squib performance it would be hard for the AFL to trust them again with a Thursday or Friday night game.

St Kilda take on Carlton at the MCG – who will likely help bolster the attendance figure – and if they could beat the Blues it would put them at 5-4 and the Blues at 3-6.

Bowler would know the last thing anyone wants in prime time slots are dead rubbers, so it’s a huge game for the Blues to get back on track but also push for some quality slots in rounds 16-23.

This Blues team is ratings gold, so their leaders in Brian Cook and Graeme Wright will know it’s not just about the four points against St Kilda.

Melbourne take on Hawthorn on Saturday and while they are 3-5 they have three wins on the bounce.

Knock over Hawthorn and they are back in the season – and at least in consideration for prime time slots given their only prime time Thursday or Friday clash this year was against Richmond on Anzac Eve.

A win might get them out of fixture jail.

The Cats capitalised on the Crows’ five-day break earlier this season. Picture: Getty Images

THE NEW RULES EFFECT

Bowler’s challenge is made fractionally easier by new rules which allow every club three five day breaks per season.

There are some limits – the opposition side is allowed only six days break, for example.

But already we have seen evidence in the first eight rounds that playing a five-day break against a team with a longer rehab is a recipe for disaster.

Essendon vs. Port Adelaide (round 3) and Melbourne vs. Richmond (round 7) both featured teams playing on equal five day breaks.

But Adelaide had a five-day break and flew back from Queensland and got overrun by Geelong in Gather Round after a bright early start, with the Crows’ fears about that short break realised.

Brisbane was also run over by Collingwood at the Gabba after playing the previous Saturday at Gather Round, smashed by 52 points.

If that trend continues clubs won’t care about marquee slots – they will only want longer breaks in a fixture where the five-day breaks are usually spent trying to get teams into prime time slots or fixtures like Anzac Day or Anzac Eve.

But Collingwood, which has its first five-day break against the Dockers this week, will realise it might be handed two more five-day breaks later in the season.

Gold Coast and Essendon still need to play their postponed match. Picture: Getty Images

HOW FLOATING FIXTURE COULD PAN OUT

Already with seven Thursday and Friday clashes, the Pies have games that would perfectly suit Thursday or Friday nights including Carlton (round 17), Gold Coast (round 18), Fremantle (round 19), Brisbane (round 21), Hawthorn (round 22) and Adelaide (round 23).

Essendon has two five-day breaks in the first 15 rounds but at least the second occasion also pits it against a team with an equal break – Fremantle in round 15 as both teams play Thursday off a Saturday clash the previous round.

The AFL won’t lock in its round 24 fixture until later in the season but it is hard to see how the league doesn’t force Essendon into a total of four five-day breaks for the season.

It will take fancy footwork to avoid it.

Gold Coast and Essendon have that extra game to play in the final round after it was postponed due to Cyclone Alfred, and given the Suns look finals-bound it would make sense to schedule their clash as the final home-and-away game of the season.

Essendon also plays Carlton in round 24 and the Suns are away against Port Adelaide.

So if both played on a Saturday of round 23 those first two games could be a Thursday and Friday night of round 24 – even if Channel 7 would not want the Suns-Power as a Friday game.

Then the Suns and Essendon could play a Wednesday night game leading into the pre-finals bye, giving Essendon five days into the Carlton game and six days into the Suns game.

Or the league could schedule both the Essendon-Carlton and Suns-Port games on the Saturday of round 24 and schedule the Suns-Essendon game on the Thursday leading into the pre-finals bye.

It would mean the Dons had three five-day breaks but all of them with an equal break against their rivals.

The Bulldogs could be one of the big winners from the fixture release. Picture: Getty Images

SO WHO SHOULD WIN FROM THIS EIGHT-WEEK FIXTURE RELEASE?

The Western Bulldogs are sleek, sexy, high-scoring and have a handful of huge games against quality opponents.

They have also only had one of their three five day breaks available so Bowler can move them into the big spots even if shorter breaks don’t help

From rounds 16-24 they take on Sydney (round 16), Brisbane (round 19), Essendon (round 20) modern day rival GWS (Round 21) and all could be rewarded with quality slots.

The outrider is Adelaide at Mars Stadium in round 18.

It should be a prime time slot against a quality opponent but as we saw with this Saturday’s game in Ballarat, it will again be a game played in a windy construction site with very little atmosphere.

We know why these games are played in Ballarat – the Dogs get an earn and the Victorian government shows off its regional credentials after abandoning the Commonwealth Games.

But almost to a fault the games are played in a torrential gale which minimises the spectacle, with the round 18 clash likely to be no different.

Dogs CEO Ameet Bains was thrilled with the TV exposure of the club’s recent Sunday night game but playing at Mars Stadium guarantees an early Saturday or Sunday slot.

With the stadium still under construction next year surely there is an argument for the Dogs to push back at least one of their 2026 games into 2027 to give them a chance of another marquee slot next year.

Richmond’s recent struggles are at least good for Noah Balta and his availability.

Despite the rousing wins over Carlton and Gold Coast the Tigers have lost six of their last seven games by margins of 72, 82, 28, 61, 20 and 65 points.

They take on Adelaide (MCG), Geelong (GMHBA Stadium) and Essendon (MCG) in rounds 16-18 and there is an argument to say the Tigers don’t deserve a night clash for any of those contests.

Balta, locked into a 10pm curfew in those rounds, would hope he gets to play at least two of those three contests.

The Collingwood-Geelong epic was exclusive to Fox Footy. Picture: Getty Images

THE TV RIGHTS EFFECT

The exceptional quality of the Geelong-Collingwood clash again saw complaints over Fox Footy having exclusive access to all Saturday games in Melbourne this year.

As a Fox Footy employee I clearly have a conflict of interest.

Yet it is worth reminding people that under the terms of the seven-year agreement Seven pays for roughly three games a weekend plus some extra blockbusters, and Foxtel broadcasts everything.

Seven paid up for streaming rights and exclusive access to the grand final and is happy to accept more Thursday night games in the back-end of the season instead of a Saturday night games.

Fox Footy paid for exclusivity on Saturdays and the AFL got paid for it – $643 million in total a season, up from $473 million in the last two-year rights deal.

In that contract negotiation Nine and Stan offered $500 million a year, while Channel 10 and Paramount offered $6 billion over 10 seasons.

Presumably they would have asked for exactly what Fox Footy did to try to push their product – exclusivity.

So the AFL chose money – $170 million a season more per season – but also allowed Foxtel exclusivity on Saturdays for the first 15 rounds in Melbourne.

Then after the AFL committed to Thursday night footy every week, Seven made the choice of Thursday nights every week instead of reverting back to a Saturday night game from round 15 onwards.

The AFL will have to prove it can spend that $170 million a year in the right areas to justify its media deal.

That money will go to player pay rises, to junior and game development, to funding club salary caps and many other priorities.

But every other bidder for the TV rights this time around did so with a streaming partner.

There was never an option to give Seven five games, Nine three and Channel 10 one across a nine-game weekend.

So the days of the AFL even considering splitting its rights between Seven, Nine and Ten are officially over.