Wreck it Ralph: 17 reasons why Essendon might be escaping mediocrity ahead of Anzac Day
Something feels different about the Bombers’ hopes in 2024, and part of that is a brilliant move by Brad Scott and his side. JON RALPH analyses how the Bombers have changed their fortunes.
We have been here before.
When it comes to the mantle of the AFL’s greatest tease, only Carlton rivals Essendon over the past two decades.
But if Essendon has had a million false dawns, the fans at least this time might hope they are made of sterner stuff.
Last season when the going got tough… the Dons wilted.
Again.
When the injuries hit their depth was exposed, they turned up their toes and another chance to break that 6000-day finals winning drought was over.
So here are the 17 reasons why Essendon might be escaping mediocre and heading on the way to very good as it approaches Thursday’s Anzac Day contest.
Take down Collingwood in footy’s biggest day on the home-and-away calendar and the lid will officially be off.
1. SAM DURHAM
It might be the best positional switch of the season so far, so cap off to Brad Scott and his midfield coach Daniel Giansiracusa.
The numbers don’t scream off the page - an average of 17 possessions, 3.8 clearances, kicking efficiency at only 63 per cent.
But this kid is just hard at it.
He took down Marcus Bontempelli in the Friday night clash at Marvel Stadium and he’s averaging 5.2 tackles per game, including nine in the victory over Adelaide.
That is the Essendon edge - beating your opponent, cracking in and minimising the gap between stinkers that cost your team and eight-out-of-ten games that contribute to a win.
He was the ninth pick in a very reasonable 2021 mid-season draft - which gives another reminder why the Roos have missed the boat.
They took the uncapped and delisted Jacob Edwards, then followed Hawks star Jai Newcombe, Collingwood’s Ash Johnson, Adelaide’s Patty Parnell, emerging Suns ruck Ned Moyle, Blues project player Alex Mirkov, Saints ruck Max Heath, GWS player James Peatling and Sam Durham, with Carlton’s Jordan Boyd at pick 20 and St Kilda’s Cooper Sharman at pick 21.
2. BEN MCKAY
Do your job.
As Bill Belichick would say, you don’t have to be flashy or a hero or go outside your lane.
Just do your job, and it’s what Ben McKay has served up so far.
He is not only averaging 3.5 intercept marks and 8.8 intercept possessions, he has taken on the stars and held his own.
He kept Taylor Walker to a goal against Adelaide after four the previous week, kept Aaron Naughton goalless (he kicked six the next week), kept Charlie Dixon goalless in a smacking, and kept Logan McDonald and Mitch Lewis to a goal.
They are quality forwards - and quality numbers against them.
3. DEFENCE
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Against Adelaide the Dons set the ground up beautifully with zone defence, conceding only 10 inside 50s from nearly 60 chains generated from Adelaide’s defensive 50.
It was the eighth best number under Brad Scott.
But the defensive profile is still extremely poor.
They are 16th for defending ball movement, bottom six in points conceded and the second-worst at defending turnovers.
Sydney put 131 points on them and Port Adelaide 111 in a 69-point defeat.
But in three of the last four weeks they have limited St Kilda to 67 points, the Dogs to 67 and Adelaide to 75.
And they don’t have Jordan Ridley and Zach Reid in their back six.
So there is no better test of those small pockets of improvement than defending Collingwood’s blitzkrieg ball movement on the wide open spaces of the MCG.
4. PRESSURE
On the weekend the Dons had 80 tackles against Adelaide, their highest return from a pressure point of view and while it was a night that promoted pressure, they were also plus 17 for that stat against Adelaide.
It was their third best return for pressure under Scott.
As Steele Sidebottom said on Monday, the Pies knew they could get Port Adelaide on Saturday if they brought the heat like few sides had this year.
So Collingwood will come out hunting Essendon and their pressure numbers need to be just as good in return.
5. JYE CALDWELL
The Dons went hard for Caldwell in their trade with GWS, ultimately handing over two second-rounders and getting back the inside mid, 44 and 74 for the former No.11 draft pick.
He has played 41 games across the last two seasons - he was limited by injury to three in his debut season at the Dons.
But this has clearly been his best start to a season at Essendon even as he finished seventh in last year’s best-and-fairest.
He can take down an opponent like Tom Liberatore last week or just play inside mid, winning a season-high 26 disposals and season-high 10 tackles.
Caldwell has only been at the sixth-most centre bounces for Essendon this year (57), behind Zach Merrett (133), Archie Perkins (74), Darcy Parish (72), Will Setterfield (70), Sam Durham (69), so he’s providing bang for buck.
At just 23 he should have another 150 games ahead of him in Essendon colours.
6. JAKE STRINGER
Stringer has kicked 14 goals and had five direct goal assists.
But you want the stat that matters for Stringer?
Stringer is second of all key forwards for forward half pressure behind only Gold Coast’s Jed Walter.
He’s fit enough and invested enough to buy into the front-half game.
As the club played him half-fit at times last year his pressure and chasing was appalling.
Whatever the reason - fitness, happy off the field, playing for a new three-year contract - it’s definitely working.
7. XAVIER DUURSMA
In the end Essendon sweetened the deal that saw them secure Xavier Duursma for Brandon Zerk Thatcher, handing over two fourth-rounders and pick 73.
The Essendon wingman isn’t a superstar but he’s been better than his previous two years at Port Adelaide.
He has released Durham into the midfield and averaged 20 possessions in the past month with good kicking efficiency.
He is always going to win the ball on the outside but his stat line is very similar to that first breakout year at the Power - 18 possessions a game (19 in 2019), 72 per cent kick efficiency (67 per cent in 2019), 4.2 intercept possessions (3.5 in 2019), 3.3 tackles (2.0 in 2019).
8. NIC MARTIN IS RACKING IT UP BUT IS HE HURTING TEAMS?
Duursma is locked in on one wing but with Martin playing half back, the Dons have tried all of Elijah Tsatas, Jake Kelly and Nik Cox at times on the other wing.
Martin is winning 31 possessions a game but his ball use has been average - only 56 per cent efficiency against the Crows.
Is he hurting teams?
Is it worth throwing him back onto the wing at times to see if he can bring some ‘punish’ back into his game after 17 goals last year?
9. IF IT’S NOT YOUR GAME, MAKE IT YOUR MOMENT
Alwyn Davey Jr has kicked a single goal in three games and his pressure isn’t exceptional but in a four-tackle game against Adelaide a single moment stood out.
He gave Mitch Hinge 10 metres with the game in the balance - Adelaide five points down with 4.20 on the clock and surging.
And yet he still ran him down and he forced his opponent to kick the ball out of bounds.
Not sure where his career ends up as he and brother Jayden make their way at Essendon but it was a mighty good moment.
10. JADE GRESHAM
It did seem strange that Essendon handed over $700,000 a year for Gresham when they had Stringer, Archie Perkins and plenty of smalls (Jye Menzie, Matt Guelfi) to play in that role.
But credit where it is due.
Gresham hasn’t been in a single centre bounce despite being advertised as a mid-forward yet has carved out a very solid role as a high half forward.
Against Adelaide he racked up 26 touches to go with five forward-half clearances and three direct goal assists.
He has nine goals including three against the flow when the Dons were smacked around by the Power.
He still has the odd hungry moment but he’s paid his way so far.
11. HARRISON JONES
Why didn’t a rival club ask about Harrison Jones last year when he was injured and offered only a one-year deal to stay at the Dons?
Big opportunity missed.
His last four weeks have been exceptional - nine goals, a dozen touches a game, high tackle numbers for a key forward, five forward-50 groundball gets against Adelaide.
He looks engaged and involved and perfectly poised for a big Anzac Day even as Peter Wright returns on the big stage.
12. BRAD SCOTT HASN’T RUSHED NATE CADDY
The fans got mixed messages last year when Stringer was told to bide his time as he got fit early in the year then thrown in late in the season when clearly lame.
The Dons gave up pick 10 for Caddy - who had a heavy collision from a fall late in the pre-season, then lost a tooth in the early minutes of the round 2 VFL game against Sandringham and only played a few minutes.
He’s kicked four goals in four VFL games and had some nice moments.
But Essendon can get him in when he’s ready, not out of desperation to spruik their talent.
13. MASON REDMAN CAN GET SO MUCH BETTER
Last year Redman was in the All Australian squad and desperately unlucky not to be an All Australian.
This year his numbers are fine but his intercept game well down.
His intercept marks are down 42 per cent and intercept possessions are down by 20 per cent.
He isn’t hurting teams like last year.
The challenge is to go back to that intercept game (while Jordan Ridley is out) and base his game on hard ball as aerial coverage to help Ben McKay and Jayden Laverde.
14. DARCY PARISH CAN GET SO MUCH BETTER
Parish is just going after four games back from a hamstring strain.
His kicking is rated poor (39 per cent last week), his disposals and contested possessions rate average, his clearances, metres gained and scoreboard impact are below average.
He has been a non-damaging player this season.
Can the 2021 Anzac Day Medallist erupt on the MCG stage this Thursday?
15. ZACH MERRETT HAS A CHANCE TO BE THE NEXT GREAT ESSENDON CAPTAIN SINCE JAMES HIRD
Fox Footy’s David King rates him the best captain in footy and when you look at the blend in his game you can see why.
Champion Data only has him ranked as the 24th best player in the comp this year, but he averages 30.7 disposals, 5.5 clearances and 5.2 tackles.
For a player with a weapon of a left foot they are exceptional numbers.
In the Sydney game the trio of tackles were first-class and a template for the Essendon edge.
His desperation to close down Errol Gulden from nowhere forced a turnover, he wrapped up a rampaging Chad Warner in a brilliant bear-hug and then he chased down Tom McCartin to win a close-range shot.
Brad Scott would have worn out the VHS showing his players those examples of how Essendon must play.
16. ANDY MCGRATH IS FINDING A BETTER BLEND OF ATTACK AND DEFENCE
McGrath’s offensive game is thriving - averaging 25 disposals, 494 metres gained and kicking at 73 per cent efficiency.
But early on players were kicking goals for fun on the Dons restricted free agent.
He conceded two goals to Dylan Moore, two to Tom Papley, three to Jack Higgins and two to Willie Rioli.
In the last two weeks he has held a combination of Laitham Vandermeer and Harvey Gallagher goalless then Ben Keays goalless.
If he wants the big bucks he has to take the elite small forwards and might get a very dangerous Bobby Hill or Beau McCreery type on Anzac Day.
17. CENTRE SQUARE GAME
The centre square game is excellent despite the mother of all annihilations against Port Adelaide.
The Dons haven’t had a dominant ruckman - Sam Draper and Todd Goldstein are ranked in the bottom three of the AFL’s 20 regular ruckman - but are still second for centre square clearances.
They rank sixth from scoring for stoppages.
For a team still conceding 89 points a game, conceding 58 points from turnover (ranked 17th in the AFL) and conceding scores from 48 per cent of entries (ranked 15th) they must cash in on their clearances.
The return of Zach Reid and Ridley will help that defensive profile but it is still a million miles from one that would see Essendon winning regular finals.
So the Dons have the chance to turn that 4-2 platform into something meaningful in a year where Ridley, Wright, Guelfi, Parish and Perkins have all missed plenty of football.
Last year they took a 28-point lead into three quarter time and were run down - a symbol of a season of missed opportunities.
Has Essendon matured enough to take down the premier 12 months on?
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