The compelling case for a bigger MCG as AFL crowds soar
Footy at the MCG is in its Taylor Swift era - a record number of blockbusters are drawing bigger crowds than ever before. SHANNON GILL writes the numbers are compelling the stadium to get bigger.
A Victorian team won’t be seen, yet 100,000 spectators will still pack the MCG this Saturday. This follows the cathedral hosting two 90,000-plus finals this season for match-ups far from traditional blockbusters.
There is a trend at play.
Nine of the last ten finals at the MCG have topped 90,000, and people in the know are asking a question.
Should the MCG be bigger?
AFL CEO Andrew Dillon confirmed to CODE Sports this week that it has been on the agenda.
“At some stage there will be plans to redevelop the Shane Warne stand, and we’d like to work really closely with the MCC and the Victorian Government on what the right look and feel for that will be,” he said.
“The reality is we could sell out this week’s grand final three or four times over, I’m not sure we’ll go that big, but there will be potential for a slightly expanded capacity.”
Adding further weight to the concept is this week’s Victorian government appointment of Eddie McGuire to the MCG Trust.
McGuire has previously been a proponent of a bigger MCG, telling SEN Radio in 2022 in relation to the next stadium upgrade that “we need to have 100,000 or maybe even get up to 105,000 or 110,000.”
With a compelling set of numbers, it doesn’t seem as far-fetched that the MCG will pass the 100,000 threshold and increase its capacity by 5000 to future-proof demand.
SWIFT GROWTH
Thank the Swifties.
Taylor Swift’s three nights of 96,000 earlier this year was the lightbulb moment that we’re increasingly being drawn to big events in bigger numbers than ever before.
That 97,828 would attend a Bulldogs and Hawthorn Elimination final may have been footy’s Tay-Tay moment, yet footy at the ‘G has been moving this way for a while.
Over the five non-pandemic seasons from 2018 onwards the MCG has hosted twenty-four 90,000+ crowds, with a 25th to follow this weekend.
In the five seasons prior, there were only eleven
Over the same period there will have been 22 more 80,000+ games and 29 more 70,000+ games after the Grand Final.
Saturday’s Grand Final will make twenty MCG crowds of 70,000 or more for 2024, the most ever in the ground’s history.
If we go back to the advent of the AFL in 1990 and discount covid years and capacity-affecting stadium rebuild years (1991, 2003, 2004 and 2005) the growth of MCG crowds is linear on every measure.
The average number of 90,000+, 85,000+, 80,000+ and 70,000+ crowd drawing games have increased through each decade.
From the 1990s to the 2020s the number of 90,000+ and 80,000+ games has tripled.
Anyone who has tried to get finals tickets over the last few years would understand how demand is growing.
Once upon a time it was only the Grand Final that caused demand issues. Now for any final you need to login and fight online queues as tickets are snapped in a matter of minutes.
Melbourne’s population is growing, and the most resourced sporting organisation in the land is actively trying to create new fans, and more passionate existing fans, through a variety of methods.
In 2004 a Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Preliminary Final attracted 55,768. 20 years on the same teams drew 93,066 last week.
Getting a finals ticket is only going to get harder in the future.
THE OPPORTUNITY
The great opportunity for the MCG is that the Shane Warne Stand (formerly Southern) was rebuilt and opened in 1992.
Stadium experts will tell you that the lifespan of major stadium buildings is 40 years.
While it has received refurbishments and is still functional, at 32 years old, the stand is on the clock.
That rebuild is the major priority for the MCC (operators of the MCG), with CEO Stuart Fox telling CODE Sports earlier this year that “more events, bigger events, big crowds … I think assists us with mounting a case to make sure the Shane Warne Stand gets the rebuild it will require at some point in time,” he said.
“The goal is hopefully looking to move into a major building project sometime in 2029-30.”
In the MCC’s planning, the rebuild has to be done over the next decade. The crowd data says that a stand that fits more people will need to be considered.
Insiders believe that the most realistic increase, given space limitations, would be an extra 3000-5000 seats, going up, in a rebuilt Shane Warne Stand.
An extra 5000 seats would bring the stand’s official capacity to 52,5000, matching the other side of the ground and making for a total ground capacity of 105,000.
The comparison with the last time the stand was rebuilt is illuminating.
When it opened in 1992 the ground went on to attract one 90,000+ crowd (the Grand Final) and five 70,000+ crowds that season. This year the MCG will host five and twenty respectively.
Melbourne’ population in 1992 was 3.217 million. Today it’s 5.316 million.
The 1992 project has more or less met demand for its lifetime, whether a status quo on capacity will be fit for purpose for the next 40 years is highly debatable.
POLITICAL GRANDSTANDING
Money, or lack of it, will be the major barrier to the stand rebuild.
While the MCC would be funding a portion, it will require major state government backing to make it a reality.
Victoria has the most debt-laden economy in Australia, projected to hit $188 billion by 2028. A Warne stand rebuild could add another $2 billion to that figure if construction estimates are correct.
While the MCC has previously been bullish about making the case for the Warne Stand, they declined to comment this week.
To questions about the proposed Warne Stand project the Victorian Government has avoided direct answers, but Sports Minister Steve Dimopoulos confirmed the MCG’s continued status remains a priority.
“We’ve backed all our major stadiums over many years to promote our reputation as the sporting capital of Australia and we’ll continue to work with MCG Trust, the Melbourne Cricket Club and other stakeholders to ensure the MCG remains a premium international stadium well into the future,” the spokesperson said.
Negotiations continue and the lack of public comment by the two key financiers may mean they are becoming more pointed.
This is where an increased capacity could provide a circuit breaker.
Given the rebuild has to be done at some time in the future and that costs will only go up, a rebuild that increases capacity and can guarantee more of the general public see big finals and Grand Finals is a better political sell than simply retaining the status quo.
The rule of thumb for the MCG is that every seat gets cheaper as you add more. Adding an extra 3000-5000 seats would come at a cost, but in the scheme of a $2 billion project, would not make it dramatically less palatable.
This government’s most recent major infrastructure projects such as the Suburban Rail Loop and the Airport Link have been plagued by delays and general ambivalence from the public.
Perhaps a Shane Warne Stand that lifts the capacity of the city’s pride and joy to 105,000 will be a safer political bet ahead of the 2026 state election for an electorate that is increasingly voting with their feet for footy.
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