What history and the numbers say about every 2025 AFL Draft selection
You never hear an AFL club talking negatively about their draft haul. But should everyone really be happy? We’ve crunched the numbers on every pick and its production since 2010 to find out.
Every club walked away from the draft last week talking up their choices but we all know not every pick is created equal.
Some draft choices deliver more than others and while the No.1 pick carries its own expectation, recent history says the No.2 has delivered more on field and the No.3 has played more games.
Thanks to a Champion Data analysis of the performance of every pick and its production since 2010, this is a run down on what your club can expect from every choice used at the national draft.
Of the 60 choices used, history says the No.3 spot has produced the most games per player in the past 15 years.
But it is pick 58 that has the best average player ratings points – player ratings is Champion Data’s catch-all for any single game performance, a stat Marcus Bontempelli led in 2025.
ADELAIDE
22 – Mitch Marsh
Games average per player (since 2010): 54.3, Player Rating points average per player (since 2010): 7.9, Best player drafted (since 2010): Jordan Ridley (2016)
50 – Archie Ludowyke
Games: 23.7, Rating: 7.3, Player: Oleg Markov (2015)
If history is any guide, the Crows fell into two of the worst picks of the draft.
Pick 22 doesn’t have a great track record as no choice before it comes near its comparatively low games average of 54.3 and no player ever taken here has hit 200 games.
In a rare moment where the numbers actually make complete sense, pick 50 has the lowest games average of any selection in the top 50.
Will Schofield is the only player since 2001 taken there that even hit 100 games.
That’s not pretty for the Crows, who took on two tall forwards with their picks, a traditionally risky proposition.
BRISBANE LIONS
6 – Daniel Annable
Games: 101.3, Rating: 8.9, Player: Jackson Macrae (2012)
38 – Koby Evans
Games: 34.8, Rating: 8.5, Player: Sean Darcy (2016)
43 – Cody Curtin
Games: 44.4, Rating: 7.9, Player: Tom Barrass (2013)
44 – Tai Hayes
Games: 53.7, Rating: 8.4, Player: Aliir Aliir (2013)
The Lions were forced into pick 6 to match a bid on Annable and it is a slot that hasn’t delivered stars over the journey.
Jack Macrae and Chad Wingard are the only No.6 picks to become an All-Australian and the likes of Fischer McAsey and Denver Grainger-Barras have disappointed from this spot.
Ben King may buck that All-Aus trend, while Bailey Humphrey is on track for a big career.
It’s been a long time since Brendan Fevola and Cameron Ling were taken back-to-back at 38 in the last two drafts of the 20th century.
Sean Darcy is the only player taken since 2010 to have played 100 games.
Defenders have had some success at 43 in recent times with Tom Barrass, Mitch McGovern and Esava Ratugolea all taken there, but there have been few wins at that pick in recent years.
CARLTON
3 – Harry Dean
Games: 123.4, Rating: 10.3, Player: Hugh McCluggage (2016)
45 – Talor Byrne
Games: 39.8, Rating: 9.6, Player: Bailey Dale (2014)
47 – Jack Ison
Games: 27.6, Rating: 7.5, Player: Ben Brown (2013)
The Blues may be happy they had to match the Harry Dean bid at No.3, given its stellar history.
The only draft pick in the Champion Data list since 2010 to produce a better games average is, confoundingly, No.85.
And of selections used at the draft this year, only 2, 4 and 58 has a better player ratings points average.
The 45th pick has a low games average but high ratings points thanks to Bailey Dale and James Worpel being taken there in recent times.
It is bare bones around those two, but Joel Freijah is coming with a bullet.
Saints hard-nut Marcus Windhager is the only player taken at pick 47 since 2019 to actually play an AFL game.
COLLINGWOOD
32 – Tyan Prindable
Games: 45.2, Rating: 9.5, Player: Errol Gulden (2020)
37 – Samuel Swadling
Games: 75, Rating: 7.2, Player: Alex Pearce (2013)
55 – Zac McCarthy
Games: 31.4, Rating: 8.3, Player: Sam Collins (2015)
57 – Angus Anderson
Games: 64.7, Rating: 8.5, Player: Josh Daicos (2016, F/S)
The Pies were forced to pick reasonably late compared to others.
Pick 32 has a low games average for its position but its high rating is largely thanks to Errol Gulden and George Hewett.
The 37 choice had some great hits in the 2000s – Leigh Montagna, Todd Goldstein, Scott Thompson – but has cooled off since, with Alex Pearce clearly the best player taken here in the last 15 years.
Steely Green’s 25 games are the most for any player taken at No.55 since 2018.
The 57th pick had a remarkable hit rate when Josh Daicos, Gryan Miers and Lachie Schultz were taken in three years from 2016-18.
Unsurprisingly, it has slowed down a little since but that should give the Pies some confidence that Angus Anderson could be a gem.
ESSENDON
9 – Sullivan Robey
Games: 112.4, Rating: 8.8, Player: Darcy Moore (2014 F/S)
10 – Jacob Farrow
Games: 82.2, Rating: 8.8, Player: Nick Blakey (2018)
13 – Dyson Sharp
Games: 95.2, Rating: 9.6, Player: Patrick Cripps (2013)
36 – Max Kondogiannis
Games: 30.5, Rating: 7.4, Player: Shaun Mannagh (2023)
53 – Hussien El Achkar
Games: 49.3, Rating: 8.8, Player: Tom McDonald (2010)
Pick 9 has not had a good decade for producing difference makers, with Aaron Naughton the only player taken since Darcy Moore in 2014 to have any claims of being a star.
But its high games average comes thanks to a four-year run where Dion Prestia, Adam Tomlinson, Nick Vlastuin, Christian Salem and Moore were taken five years running.
The Bombers got Joe Daniher at No.10 back in 2012 and since then Harry McKay, Nick Blakey and Tom Green have been hits.
But Daniel Gorringe, Liam Sumner, Nathan Freeman, Nakia Cockatoo and Lochie O’Brien were whiffs that means No.10 has by far the lowest games average of the top 10.
Pick 13 has been lifted by inside-mid Patrick Cripps, a similar selection to Dyson Sharp.
Pick 36 has the lowest games average of any top-40 spot and has not produced a player remotely close to a star since Sam Mitchell was plucked in 2001.
Is No.53 the only choice to have two brothers called out?
Tom (2010) and Oscar McDonald (2014) were taken here four years apart by Melbourne.
That is the highlight with this choice – since Jack Graham in 2016, Jai Serong is the only player to hit double-figures in games and he has just 10 to his name.
FREMANTLE
25 – Adam Sweid
Games: 75.8, Rating: 8.9, Player: Josh Dunkley (2015)
40 – Tobyn Murray
Games: 63.5, Rating: 9.9, Player: Tom Stewart (2016)
Intriguingly, the best pick 25 in the past 15 years was Josh Dunkley, a player who was bid on and let pass on to the Bulldogs by Sydney.
Essendon let Adam Sweid pass to Fremantle through a bid in the same spot this year.
Pick 40 has a remarkable history given these names: Michael O’Louglin, Gary Ablett Jr, Jobe Watson, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Tom Stewart.
Since Stewart in 2016 though, it has been a bit of a graveyard with Andrew McPherson’s 28 games the most by any player since then.
GEELONG
24 – Harley Barker
Games: 80.9, Rating: 9.5, Player: Jack Steele (2014)
33 – Hunter Holmes
Games: 77.3, Rating: 8.8, Player: Jeremy Howe (2010)
Good news Cats fans: Geelong is the team with a good recent track record at pick 24.
Since Tim Kelly was taken in 2018, that slot hasn’t had a hit, with Harry Schoenberg the only player to feature in more than 18 AFL games.
Some quality players taken at pick 33 since Jeremy Howe in 2010 – Brad Hill, Willem Drew, Tom McCartin, Shannon Neale and Mitch Owens.
That gives the pick a high games average for its position.
GOLD COAST
2 – Zeke Uwland
Games (avg): 111.3, Rating: 11.1, Player: Christian Petracca
5 – Dylan Patterson
History: Games: 113.4, Rating: 9.9, Player: Connor Rozee (2018)
17 – Jai Murray
History: Games: 78.6, Rating: 8.4, Player: Murphy Reid (2024)
18 – Beau Addinsall
History: Games: 95.3, Rating: 9.5, Player: Isaac Heeney (2014)
28 – Avery Thomas
Games: 81.6, Rating: 9, Player: Sam Taylor (2017)
46 – Koby Coulson
Games: 64.5, Rating: 7.6, Player: Caleb Daniel (2014)
Only pick 58 has produced a better player rating average than No.2 in the last 16 seasons, as players like Christian Petracca, Tim Taranto, Andrew Brayshaw and Noah Anderson dominate, with Will Ashcroft, Sam Darcy and Riley Thilthorpe all only getting better.
But No.2 has the lowest games played average in that time of the top five choices as the likes of Jonathan O’Rourke and Josh Schache proved to be disappointments.
Pick 5 has not quite been as strong in recent years but Nick Watson and Mac Andrew are making their way.
No All-Australian player has been taken at pick 17 since Harry Taylor back in 2007 but No.18 has produced Brodie Grundy (2012) and Isaac Heeney (2014) since, with Josh Weddle a No.18 bolter.
Sam Taylor has helped his pick 28 lift to a relatively high player rating.
Tim Membrey and Caleb Daniel have meant pick 46 has a high games average for its position.
GWS GIANTS
15 – Oskar Taylor
Games: 76.6, Rating: 8.3, Player: Zac Bailey (2017)
51 – Finnegan Davis
Games: 37.4, Rating: 6.7, Player: Kane Farrell (2017)
59 – Jake Stringer
Games: 23.4, Rating: 6.1, Player: Jonathon Ceglar (2013)
Pick 15 has produced quality players such as Daniel Rioli, Zac Bailey, Jordan Clark and Brandon Ellis in the last 15 years.
The Giants picked Conor Stone and Leek Aleer here, who are yet to truly fire.
Not much to write home about for pick 51 – only No.59 has a worse player ratings average of all the choices used in the draft.
Which brings us to 59, where Jonathon Ceglar – who was upgraded from the rookie list using this pick – is the only player to hit 100 games since 2010.
HAWTHORN
20 – Cameron Nairn
Games: 66.8, Rating: 9.3, Player: Max Holmes (2020)
23 – Aidan Schubert
Games: 53, Rating: 8.2, Player: Cam Guthrie (2010)
34 – Jack Dalton
Games: 44.1, Rating: 9.8, Player: Kieren Briggs (2018)
56 – Matthew LeRay
Games: 46.2, Rating: 9.4, Player: Jordan Dawson (2015)
Nat Fyfe was taken the year before our data catchment for these numbers and since then Jayden Laverde’s 145 games are the most by a layer taken at No.20.
But Max Holmes is quickly lifting its rating.
Since 2018, the following players have been taken at 23: Jez McLennan, Dylan Williams, Reef McInnes, Sam Butler, Harry Barnett, Riley Hardeman and Harry Armstrong, none of which have become key players.
As a result, no top 30 choice has a lower games average than No.23.
Pick 34 produced Max Gawn in 2009 but no player since has featured in 80 games and certainly no stars have been plucked there.
Hawks fans should smile with Matthew LeRay at No.56 – James Sicily was taken there in 2013 and Jordan Dawson in 2015, giving it a very high rating average for its position.
MELBOURNE
11 – Xavier Taylor
Games: 104.9, Rating: 9.1, Player: Toby Greene (2011)
12 – Latrelle Pickett
Games: 73.5, Rating: 9.6, Player: Charlie Curnow (2015)
30 – Thomas Matthews
Games: 73.7, Rating: 8.9, Player: Brayden Maynard (2014)
Tom Lynch and Toby Greene were taken at the start of the data period in 2010 and 2011 to boost the numbers for the No.11 pick.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (2021) is coming with a bullet.
The Dees took another Xavier here last year – Xavier Lindsay.
Pick 12 has the lowest games average of any choice in the top 15 but has produced genuine stars with Charlie Curnow, Zak Butters and Kozzie Pickett all taken at that slot.
In the top 25, only the top five picks have higher player rating averages than No.12.
No.30 has delivered some solid performers but has been quiet since Tom De Koning was plucked in 2017.
NORTH MELBOURNE
16 – Lachy Dovaston
Games: 75.3, Player rating: 8.2, Best player: Ed Richards (2017)
26 – Blake Thredgold
Games: 95.1, Rating: 10.1, Player: Zach Merrett (2013)
48 – Hugo Mikunda
Games: 43.3, Rating: 8.2, Player: Darcy Cameron (2016)
The 16th pick has the lowest player rating average of any choice in the top 20 but Ed Richards has caught fire here in the last 24 months.
The 26th pick had a solid run when Jack Darling, Jack Viney and Zach Merrett were all taken within four drafts but it hasn’t produced a player at that level since, with Connor Macdonald the top pick since Covid.
It hasn’t been too pretty at No.48 in recent times but Darcy Cameron was a clear hit, even if he had to get to a second club to show his talent.
PORT ADELAIDE
No draft picks taken
RICHMOND
7 – Sam Cumming
Games: 119.4, Rating: 9.3, Player: Ollie Wines (2012)
8 – Sam Grlj
Games: 97.6, Rating: 8.6, Player: Caleb Serong (2019)
31 – Zane Peucker
Games: 58.5, Rating: 7.2, Player: Bayley Fritsch (2017)
54 – Noah Roberts-Thomason
Games: 36.2, Rating: 8, Player: Ed Langdon (2014)
Sam Cumming and Josh Smillie were taken back-to-back at No.7 by Richmond, a pick that has the third-highest games average in the top 60.
Bailey Smith and Hayden Young are two jets taken here in recent years.
The next spot hasn’t been quite as a fruitful with Caleb Serong and Dyson Heppell easily the best No.8 picks since 2010 but Jye Amiss and Dan Curtin have made promising starts to their respective careers.
No pick in the top 35 has a lower rating points average than No.31, but Lions dual flag-winner Logan Morris may change that all by himself in coming years.
Ed Langdon was a hit at No.54 back in 2014 and while few quality players have been taken since, role players Jack Payne and Nick Hind have been handy, while Archie Roberts is on track for a long career at Essendon.
ST KILDA
41 – Charlie Banfield
Games: 65.5, Rating: 9.1, Player: Tom Liberatore (2010 F/S)
52 – Kye Fincher
Games: 44.1, Rating: 7.3, Player: Darcy Byrne-Jones (2013)
58 – Ryan Byrnes
Games: 38.2, Rating: 11.4, Player: Lachie Neale (2011)
Only one player taken after Neale (Tom Phillips in 2015) has played 100 games from the 58th pick, but Neale’s brilliance has lifted the average player rating to 11.4, the highest of any draft pick.
It has been quiet at pick 41 in recent years, Brennan Cox was a good selection in 2016, but since only Francis Evans has hit 30 games.
Not much has happened from pick 52 lately, but that is expected when you are selecting this late.
SYDNEY
14 – Harry Kyle
Games: 108.8, Rating: 8.4, Player: Jake Lever (2014)
35 – Jevan Phillipou
Games: 43.5, Rating: 8.5, Player: Toby Nankervis (2013)
42 – Billy Cootee
Games: 30.1, Rating: 8.3, Player: Charlie Ballard (2017)
49 – Max King
Games: 39.1, Rating: 9.6, Player: Lachie Hunter (2012 F/S)
Pick 14 hasn’t produced superstars in recent years but it has resulted in a roll call of role players, and has the best games average of any pick in the teens.
Every player drafted there since 1995 has at least played a game.
Toby Nankervis has been the only player taken at pick 35 to hit 100 games since 2010, but Paul Curtis should tick that milestone off soon.
It has been slim picking at pick 42 in the last 15 years, but Ty Gallop at least grabbed a premiership in just his sixth game.
Max King was rated well above 49 for most of his draft year so will hope to outpace a quiet recent history from that pick.
WEST COAST
1 – Willem Duursma
Games: 122.6, Rating: 9.7, Player: Matt Rowell (2019)
4 – Cooper Duft-Tytler
Games: Games: 112.4, Rating: 10.7, Player: Marcus Bontempelli (2013)
19 – Josh Lindsay
Games: 82.2, Rating: 8.7, Player: Isaac Smith (2010)
29 – Sam Allen
Games: 86.3, Rating: 9.6, Player: Touk Miller (2014)
39 – Tylah Williams
Games: 33, Rating: 8.3, Player: Chad Warner (2019)
Despite it theoretically delivering the best player in the draft, the ratings points average for No.1 is the lowest of any of the top five slots.
Nick Daicos clearly stands out as a superstar taken at pick 4, but the jury is out on other youngster taken before and since such as Logan McDonald, George Wardlaw, Zane Duursma and Sid Draper.
Shai Bolton and Touk Miller have been good choices at No.29, while Josh Battle and Chad Warner being two All-Australians at No.39 boosts the rating of that pick.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
21 – Lachie Carmichael
Games: 85.9, Rating: 8.6, Player: Tom Mitchell (2011 F/S)
27 – Louis Emmett
Games: 65, Rating: 7.2, Player: Brent Daniels (2017)
60 – Will Darcy
Games: 18.3, Rating: 6.7, Player: Mark Hutchings (2012)
Tom Mitchell and Jarman Impey have been good choices at No.21 since 2010.
The results haven’t been as good at 27, which holds the lowest player rating of any top 30 choice.
Darcy Tucker is the only No.27 since Ted Richards way back in 2000 to hit 150 games.
Mark Hutchings is the only player taken at pick 60 in the past two decades to hit 100 games, but Port Adelaide winger Jase Burgoyne should get there, a father-son like Will Darcy.
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