Upsets have placed West Coast’s finals hopes at risk

West Coast enters a clash against the high-flying Demons in Perth on Monday needing to reverse a form dip to ensure they remain on track for the finals.

West Coast ruckman Nic Naitanui is pressing his claims for all Australian status but faces an intriguing ruck battle with Melbourne captain Max Gawn on Monday night. Picture: Getty Images.

West Coast’s hold on a finals spot is now in greater peril after rivals in contention for the eight pulled off big upsets on the weekend.

The Eagles, who host Melbourne in Perth on Monday night to complete round 21, are now at risk of slipping from the eight unless they can reverse a drastic dip in form before September.

With bargain recruit Peter Wright kicking seven goals in the best game of his career, Essendon’s stunning 13-point upset of the top-placed Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on Sunday continued a trend of upsets.

Their triumph, which followed St Kilda’s strong win over Sydney on Saturday night and the Giants’ upset of the Cats a night earlier in Geelong, have raised the pressure on the Eagles, who sit seventh.

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Reigning premiers Richmond also stayed in the race by bouncing back from a lacklustre first half against North Melbourne on Saturday to win handsomely.

It appears likely that, in a reprisal of the 2019 grand final, the Tigers will host the Giants at the MCG on Friday night in a match critical to the September hopes of both sides.

West Coast is half-a-game clear of the Giants and a full win in front of Richmond, St Kilda and Fremantle, which failed in its chance to reclaim its spot in the eight on Sunday evening by being soundly beaten by Brisbane Lions .

The Eagles ability to find winning form against the Demons, Fremantle and Brisbane in the last three rounds is vital to their hopes of qualifying for the finals.

Next weekend’s western derby could prove the clash that extinguishes the hopes of the vanquished.

The Eagles have won the past 11 derbies but that streak is in question given their dip and Fremantle’s steady rise under Justin Longmuir.

West Coast’s propensity to be thrashed — four of its nine losses have been by more than seven goals, with two in the 90 point range — adds to its vulnerability.

The Eagles percentage has dropped from 108 six weeks ago to below 95 courtesy of big losses to the Western Bulldogs (55 points), Sydney (92 points) and Collingwood (45 points).

An inability to defend across the ground has been a factor, with their forward line pressure lacking against Collingwood last week, and must be corrected for the Eagles to feature.

West Coast coach Adam Simpson has opted for experience in the hope this will prove sufficient against the third-placed Demons.

Nathan Vardy and Mark Hutchings, who were premiership players in 2018, along with Alex Witherden and Jackson Nelson have been called on for the clash against Melbourne. Jake Melksham replaces suspended Demon Jack Viney for the match as the Demons seek to press their claims for the minor premiership.

Port Adelaide’s narrow win over the Crows in Saturday night’s Showdown means the Power remain in the mix to clinch a home qualifying final with a fortnight of the season remaining.

As a result, the Demons have slipped to fourth position with games against the Eagles, Adelaide and then Geelong to come.

The stage is set for a blockbuster finish to the regular season featuring the top four sides in what is a preview for the qualifying finals and could ultimately prove decisive to the premiership.

Melbourne will travel to Geelong to play the Cats, while the Bulldogs will host the Power at Marvel Stadium, border restrictions permitting.

The rucking duel between Nic Naitanui and Max Gawn shapes as a fascinating tussle, with West Coast coach Adam Simpson stating the Eagle deserved all Australian status again.

Naitanui recently became just the eighth man to top the AFL Players Ratings system introduced in 2012 based on weighing various metrics over a 40-game period.

“I think Nic has been one of the better players in the competition, not just ruckmen. I might be a little biased on it, but I’d be picking him straight away,” Simpson said.

Nic Naitanui has moved to No.1 in the overall standings.

He is the eighth player to hold the title.

Rounds as #1:
85 - G.Ablett
55 - P.Dangerfield
43 - M.Gawn
30 - D.Martin
22 - N.Fyfe
12 - S.Pendlebury
9 - M.Bontempelli
1* - N.Naitanui pic.twitter.com/y5IH76L52p

— AFL Player Ratings (@AFLPlayerRating) July 25, 2021