The risk rating on every long-term contract and why some clubs baulk at big deals
There are 35 players signed up to long-term deals in the AFL, but are some riskier than others? These are all the players on mega-deals and their level of risk across the league.
There are two schools of thought on long term contracts.
Behind door A: if you have a star-level performer in a key position, lock them down.
And door B: don’t put a big deal in front of big men.
There are more long-term deals in the AFL than at any other time in history, as clubs increasingly go further and further with contract extensions.
Only weeks ago a ripple went through the league when the Western Bulldogs fended off a reported 10-year offer for Aaron Naughton and handed the forward eight more years at the kennel.
Part of the explosion in long contracts is due to free agency, with clubs desperate to make their man part of their team “for life”.
Clubs are also well aware of the looming addition of the Tasmanian team – and potentially a 20th club after that – and how that will shake up the market, with star players out-of-contract when the big league hits the Apple Isle in 2028 in danger of being poached.
Some long-term deals are no-brainers – Collingwood couldn’t move fast enough to concrete the Daicos brothers Josh and Nick in to extensions, knowing the professional midfielders should age like fine wine.
But the taller the player, the bigger the risk.
The Magpies were burned in the biggest way by Brodie Grundy’s long deal and as the ruck arrives at a third club still with four years left on the contract he signed in 2020.
Collingwood CEO and former powerful player manager Craig Kelly confirmed he has little interest in big deals for big men from a club’s point of view.
“If I am managing and I can get a long-term contract in place … you are absolutely going to do that,” Kelly told Triple M.
“If I am running the club … I think there are certain players that are the right age and the role they play in he team. Even if Nick or Josh Daicos – touch wood they don’t – but if they were to get injured then they are still going to play a role and long term, they will be in the role you can clearly see them playing now.
“If you get a big tall guy there is a lot more that can go I reckon a little bit wrong, especially if you do those contracts after 25 (years of age).
“We have seen that happen with a few guys and personally, as a club I would be staying away from that.
“Brodie Grundy’s deal was the right deal for him but it actually forced us (Collingwood) to play a hand that wasn’t that pleasant for both parties because we just couldn’t afford it all and that was a super long-term deal.”
On the opposite side of the fence, one player manager said he thought clubs were keen to lock down key position talents because if you lose one, you have to find a replacement.
“It’s just more positional scarcity. When you have one, you don’t want to lose one because then you are in the market for one,” the manager said.
“It’s just more around protecting what they (clubs) have got.”
That pressure of a black hole at full-forward forced the Dogs’ hand on making sure Naughton didn’t leave.
Of players signed up to their club for at least the next five seasons, only one – Fremantle’s Luke Jackson – plays through the ruck.
Long-term deals are generally a boon for players and their agents but they carry their own risk, that as the salary cap and wages inevitably expand, players signed up early could be on a relative pittance by the end of the deal, depending how it is structured.
“It could be unders, that is one consideration you have to take,” the player manager said.
By October last year, just 13 players were signed up until 2028 or later, now 35 players have deals that stretch that far.
Here is a list of all 35 deals and how much risk each one holds for the clubs.
RATING THE LONG-TERM DEALS
Jake Soligo (Adelaide) – Age: 20, AFL games: 37, contract ends: 2029
Soligo already held a contract until the end of 2025 when he extended that in June, at the time marking the longest deal on the Crows’ books. Obviously Adelaide rates him as a long-term fit despite an inconsistent 2023 and the Victorian has a lot of growth in him.
Risk: Medium
Josh Rachele (Adelaide) – Age: 20, games: 34, contract ends: 2029
A ripple went through on Rachele when he was left out of the starting 22 in round 22 after consecutive weeks of less than 10 disposals. It is the second year running the half-forward started the year on fire and faded badly but that is something he can fix as he matures into a footballer’s body. Rachele has genuine star power so as long as he knuckles down, he will be fine.
Risk: Medium
Eric Hipwood (Brisbane Lions) – Age: 26, games: 153, contract ends: 2029
Signed a six-year deal in December and the lanky left-footer will turn 32 just as the contract ends. Aside from an ACL injury – which only cost Hipwood 16 games – he has generally been durable and the contract should take in his best years.
Risk: Low-medium
Jack Payne (Brisbane Lions) – Age: 24, games: 50, contract ends: 2029
A slight surprise at the start of August, Payne extended his deal by a further five years. He was an able sidekick to Harris Andrews this year after struggling to lock in a spot in the side before 2023. Payne may forever be haunted by missing the preliminary and grand finals due to an ankle injury. No doubt the Lions believe in him, and he is sure to be on reduced coin compared to some on this list, but he is no star. Missed some time with a foot injury in 2021 but played 23 games before the ankle injury this year.
Risk: Medium
Josh Dunkley (Brisbane Lions) – Age: 26, games: 140, contract ends: 2028
The recruit has had some shoulder troubles along the way but that appears a thing of the past. The former Dog has been an excellent pick-up and will be just 31 when this deal ends, so should only carry the smallest of concerns.
Risk: Very low
Harry McKay (Carlton) – Age: 25, games: 107, contract ends: 2030
One of six players in the competition signed into the next decade. Talk already began to brew this year about him being a potential trade option, given the money and time invested in McKay and his partner in crime, Charlie Curnow. McKay missed time in the back end of the year as Carlton picked up form but there was never any doubt internally he would return for the finals series. The 2021 Coleman medallist should only improve his kicking woes, but he doesn’t play anywhere but forward. How much is too much to pay two star forwards at the same time?
Risk: High
Charlie Curnow (Carlton) – Age: 26, games: 110, contract ends: 2029
A genuine superstar, the lingering concern with Curnow is always his body. He admitted earlier this year his knee would be a bother for the rest of his career and he played just 15 games from 2019-2021. But the goalkicker appeared in all 26 matches for the Blues this year so hopefully his injured days are behind him. Curnow is electric, beloved by fans and a genuine matchwinner. With that knee it is hard to see him playing much further than 2029, when he will be 32, but that is a worry for down the track.
Risk: Medium
Josh Daicos (Collingwood) – Age: 24, games: 103, contract ends: 2030
The older Daicos brother had only polled six Brownlow votes in his career before this year but he is now an All-Australian and premiership winger. Daicos looks set to replicate Steele Sidebottom’s career, and Sidebottom is still plugging away after 309 games. Daicos had a quiet finals series compared to his home-and-away output but that was little concern when he was given a premiership medal. Daicos will be 32 when this contract ends, the same age as Sidebottom now.
Risk: Low
Nick Daicos (Collingwood) – Age: 20, games: 47, contract ends: 2029
Taking out a knee injury that hit late in the home-and-away season, has anybody in recent history played a better first 47 games? Daicos hadn’t missed a game before the contact injury, is uber-professional and some say he is the best player in the AFL already as he closes in on his 21st birthday with a flag in his locker. The Pies could have signed him until 2040 and there would still be virtually no risk given he is the surest of sure things.
Risk: Very low
Darcy Moore (Collingwood) – Age: 27, games: 150, contract ends: 2028
The only cause for concern with the much-admired Pies leader is his hamstrings. Moore has missed 34 games already in his career due to his strings, which included the final two rounds of the home-and-away season. While some players can shrug off those concerns as they age, most often soft tissue injuries get worse later in a career. But that matters little when the defender is already Collingwood royalty after 150 games, having lifted the premiership cup in September. Ask Pies fans and they would take the flag even if those hamstrings cause issues in the back end of this contract. Feels like a lifetime ago he was being seriously courted by Sydney.
Risk: Medium
Mason Redman (Essendon) – Age: 26, games: 103, contract ends: 2028
A huge win for the Bombers by locking Redman away earlier this year. One of the best running defenders in the business, most players age well in that position so Dons fans should have no worries watching the next five years of the Red Dog.
Risk: Low
Darcy Parish (Essendon) – Age: 26, games: 150, contract ends: 2028
There was plenty of toing-and-froing with the Parish negotiations, as several commentators suggested he wasn’t worth big money or a long deal. Parish isn’t a world-beater but he is a very good midfielder. Few players boast the statistical profile of the ball magnet – elite this year in disposals, clearances, contested possessions and inside-50s. The only concern in his game is past issues with his calf, having missed 13 matches through his career, including a month in 2023.
Risk: Medium-low
Ben McKay (Essendon) – Age: 25, games: 71, contract ends: 2029
The biggest free agency signing of the off-season, the former Roo will be on a hefty pay packet in the first years of a front-ended contract that runs until 2029. The defender doesn’t have a flattering history of injury, having only played 20 games or more once and only broke into the North Melbourne team in 2020. He has played a full season-and-a-half less games than twin brother Harry. Essendon signed him to address a need and at his best McKay is an excellent interceptor but six years is a long time for his past history.
Risk: High
Jye Amiss (Fremantle) – Age: 20, games: 24, contract ends: 2029
The lethal left-footer booted 41 goals in his second season, which puts him in rare air – Jeremy Cameron is the only Coleman medallist this century to have kicked more than 40 goals in his second season. The forward missed some time last year with a kidney problem but has had no issues in 2023 and looks set to be parked at full-forward for years to come. Shrewd business by the Dockers to lock him down before he won the first of many club goalkicking awards.
Risk: Low
Luke Jackson (Fremantle) – Age: 22, games: 75, contract ends: 2029
Jackson is a fascinating case. He plays more like a star when he isn’t alongside Sean Darcy and he clearly took his game up a notch this year. After winning a trade west in 2022, he surely won’t want to leave any time soon, but a decision might be looming on which ruck Fremantle has to go with. Suffered a hamstring issue in 2020 but has been fine injury-wise since and it is rare for players of his size to have played this many games by age 22. He has also played important ones – as part of Melbourne’s 2021 flag. The risk factor hinges on whether you believe Craig Kelly or not on big men – but age is on his side more than the Grundy case.
Risk: Medium
Brennan Cox (Fremantle) – Age: 25, games: 102, contract ends: 2030
The Dockers locked in the reliable defender in September, taking his free agency rights off the table. Highly rated at Fremantle, Cox has had hamstring and hip injuries and sits about league average for durability. A solid citizen, the Dockers see him as a vital part of their list build.
Risk: Medium
Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast) – Age: 19, games: 19, contract ends: 2028
Just eight games into his career, Humphrey locked himself in on the Gold Coast until the end of 2028. The only teen on this list, there had to be some sort of risk signing up an 18-year-old for that long but Humphrey does look like he has true star power. The only concern is if the Victorian gets itchy feet in coming years.
Risk: Medium
Joel Jeffrey (Gold Coast) - Age: 21, games: 16, contract ends: 2028
The newest addition to this list, Jeffrey signed a handy extension on November 13. This is a genuine show of faith in the Darwin academy product given his output so far. Jeffrey averaged just 9.6 disposals a game in 2023 and while he managed 1.6 shots per goal he converted at just 45.5 per cent. He has talent but has produced the least of any player on this list.
Risk: Medium-High
Harry Himmelberg (GWS Giants) – Age: 27, games: 152, contract ends: 2029
Signing up a key-position, 27-year-old for six more years is the exact concern Craig Kelly raised. Himmelberg is at least adaptable, he can swing from end to end, and he doesn’t miss many games through injury. For a player in this age bracket, the question becomes whether the Giants can move Himmelberg’s contract if they have to, and how much would they need to pay for him to play elsewhere? The club is not short on tall defenders either and Himmelberg was thrust into a third-tall role in the finals series.
Risk: High
Josh Kelly (GWS Giants) – Age: 28, games: 198, contract ends: 2029
The smooth Giant triggered an incredible eight-year extension in 2021 and went on to sign it, locking him in until he turns 34. Another six seasons of action would see him sail well past 300 games. Kelly has flirted with a move in the past, would he go again at age 30? The oldest player on this list, there are plenty of risks carrying on given Kelly’s age, even if he is a midfielder and has a phenomenal finals record.
Risk: High
Clayton Oliver (Melbourne) – Age: 26, games: 162, contract ends: 2030
Signed a whopper seven-year deal last year that is tipped to be worth about $7m, Oliver seemed a sure bet halfway through this season. Then he copped a lengthy hamstring injury and the Demons put out some strange feelers about trading him in a bid to sharpen Oliver up before publicly declaring he needs to fit in with club standards. The injury kept him out for nearly three months and has to cause concern for the future, and he needs to focus in on his footy. But still, Oliver is possibly on the podium for best player in the club’s last 50 years and is only 26.
Risk: High
Christian Petracca (Melbourne) – Age: 27, games: 176, contract ends: 2029
Like his running mate Oliver, Petracca signed a hefty seven-year contract extension in 2021 and will be on big coin for the duration of that deal. Petracca never misses matches – he has played all of Melbourne’s games since early 2018 – and is one of the best players in the game. The Dee turns 33 by the end of his deal but that should be little concern given the output he is producing now.
Risk: Low
Angus Brayshaw (Melbourne) – Age: 27, games: 167, contract ends: 2028
The third Demon midfielder on a long deal, Brayshaw had shrugged off the concussion issues that threatened his career early until his clash with Brayden Maynard during the finals series. Before then, he was incredibly durable and reliable. Brayshaw will be 32 when his contract ends and hopefully he is fit and able to carry on until then.
Risk: Medium
Jake Lever (Melbourne) – Age: 27, games: 160, contract ends: 2028
A surprise signing on the eve of the finals, Lever locked himself away on a four-year extension while already holding a deal for 2024. The master interceptor has had injury issues in the past – he did a knee in 2018 and had foot woes in 2022 – so holding a contract until he is 32 is some concern but when he plays, he is an essential part of what was a premiership defence.
Risk: Medium
Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) – Age: 25, games: 134, contract ends: 2029
The co-captain locked himself in in May and should see the end of this difficult rebuild by his late-20s. Hasn’t had any soft tissue problems and while he plays a combative style, Simpkin shouldn’t have too many issues with his game ageing.
Risk: Low
Nick Larkey (North Melbourne) – Age: 25, games: 94, contract ends: 2029
A win for both the club to have locked away a super goalkicker and for the player to have won a huge deal after being drafted all the way back with the 73rd pick in 2016. Larkey doesn’t have any worrying injury red flags and while the big man is a bit one dimensional, kicking goals is a bloody good dimension.
Risk: Low-medium
Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) – Age: 20, games: 41, contract ends: 2028
There were still some small issues on field with the youngster’s attitude this year. But the former Roo has still shown he will be a super player for the next decade and beyond in his first year with the Power. Only he could make this deal a bust because if he is this good at 20, how good will he be at 25?
Risk: Low-medium
Jacob Hopper (Richmond) – Age: 26, games: 130, contract ends: 2029
Did Richmond buy too high? Hopper was only average this year and he has only been average across his whole career as a midfielder. Hopper is just reaching his peak so he may get better but what seemed like a sure-fire bet last year looks less so now. He hasn’t helped Richmond’s midfield issues and the team appears on a decline.
Risk: Medium-high
Tim Taranto (Richmond) – Age: 25, games: 137, contract ends: 2029
Where Hopper has been just OK, Taranto was excellent in his first year at Punt Road. The former Giant was one of the best midfielders in the comp and collected the club best-and-fairest. A year younger than Hopper, he has provided a boost and with a wage estimated at about $750,000, his deal has been a good one so far.
Risk: Low
Shai Bolton (Richmond) – Age: 24, games: 113, contract ends: 2028
A genuine star, Bolton will be paid like a genuine star when his five-year extension kicks in next year. The deal is a shrewd one to keep him from heading back to West Australia and Bolton doesn’t turn 25 until December 8. The only question mark is whether his game slips if Richmond’s does as a team, Bolton was very good this year but no better than he was in 2022.
Risk: Low
Nick Blakey (Sydney) – Age: 23, games: 102, contract ends: 2031
The longest deal on the books in the AFL before Aaron Naughton was inked in, signing Blakey up for so long has to carry some form of risk but the ‘Lizard’ shouldn’t have any problems seeing out the deal. He capable of playing just about anywhere and clearly loves the club.
Risk: Low-medium
Callum Mills (Sydney) – Age: 26, games: 155, contract ends: 2029
A bit like Blakey, Mills seems likely to age well. His silly shoulder injury on Mad Monday aside, a calf injury hit him this year and is the only concern for his future. Mills is a top-notch leader off the field – outside of that wrestle – and super reliable on it.
Risk: Low-medium
Isaac Heeney (Sydney) – Age: 27, games: 177, contract ends: 2028
Heeney was just OK this year after booting 85 goals across 2021 and 2022. The dangerous forward only managed 30 goals this year. At his best he is brilliant but on other days he can go missing. Heeney shouldn’t have too many issues with his body so as long as his output is good, the deal will be fine.
Risk: Low-medium
Tom Papley (Sydney) – Age: 27, Games: 164, contract ends: 2028
The only genuine small forward on this list, Papley is a great asset to Sydney, but will his position age well? It’s rare to see a big deal thrown at a goalkicking small. Papley was almost lured to Carlton once, does he look around again if the Swans slide? The beloved goalsneak will probably lead the Swans in goals in the post-Lance Franklin era so the investment will probably be worthwhile.
Risk: Medium
Aaron Naughton (Western Bulldogs) – Age: 23, games: 123 contract ends: 2032
The longest contract in the AFL, Naughton was locked in after Sydney came hard with an even longer offer. The Dogs will consider the deal good business, given Naughton has always been linked with a return home to West Australia. He has averaged 47.3 goals a season in the last three years and still has so much footy ahead of him. The length of the deal is eye-watering but it makes sense why the Dogs pulled the trigger.
Risk: Medium
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