The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Melbourne’s current group, its future and everything in between
The Demons’ mid-forward connection issues are well documented, but with no apparent change in strategy, will they improve? Jon Ralph analyses the Demons’ list for 2024.
Let’s not beat around the bush.
Melbourne’s capacity to win the flag next year centres around individual players pulling their heads in and the entire playing list devoting itself to excellence across the board.
And if Clayton Oliver can’t be at the front of that change, then it’s hard to see how this club achieves anything meaningful.
Why?
Every time you want to make the case that maybe Clayton Oliver isn’t worth the effort — that the Demons can survive without him — you look at recent history.
Example 1 — the elimination final against Collingwood when Oliver racked up 31 possessions, 10 inside 50s, 11 clearances, 10 tackles and 742 metres gained.
The Demons still lost but it wasn’t Oliver’s fault.
Example 2 — his 33-possession grand final with five clearances, 10 tackles, five centre square clearances and that beautiful running goal to cap a drought-breaking third-quarter run.
He didn’t win the Norm Smith Medal but only Christian Petracca and Bayley Fritsch beat him home.
So yes, Melbourne has the midfield depth to make finals if Oliver can’t get his act together.
But can they win another flag without him?
Maybe not.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 6/10
The Demons emerged from a frantic trade period baulking at a trade for Oliver, rejecting Adelaide’s interest in Harry Petty and still trading in or out six players while also involved the club in a canny pick swap.
After the Demons finally drew breath they would be thrilled to have secured pick 11 (for 14, 27 and 35) and Shane McAdam for a future second-rounder.
And Jack Billings was secured for a future third-rounder.
The question is whether they filled list holes with a key forward and a ruck back-up for Max Gawn.
The Dees could have taken free agent Scott Lycett but instead brought in Lions tall Tom Fullarton, who only averaged 4.6 hit-outs a game playing mostly forward in 18 VFL games.
The Brodie Grundy cash is off their books, but so much relies upon Gawn playing maximum game time.
Ex-Adelaide forward McAdam is a lovely player — quick enough to get separation, a great kick for goal, strong overhead — but is a mid-sizer like Bayley Fritsch and Jake Melksham.
So if Petty and Jacob Van Rooyen play every week he is a perfect complimentary piece behind them, but could the Demons have fought harder to gain a genuine key forward?
LIST HOLES
Melbourne’s list oozes talent and depth, with up to 20 players under 25 who will keep the premiership window open.
The Steven May-Jake Lever duo is the envy of the competition (Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe might disagree) while no team has star power in the midfield to match Christian Petracca, Viney, Angus Brayshaw, Oliver and the game’s best ruckman Gawn.
As much as it is now clear Gawn plays best one-out Simon Goodwin cannot expect him to play 80 per cent ruck time in 23 home-and-away games so will have to simply force him to rest at least once during the season as well as the bye.
The question for Melbourne after multiple seasons struggling with mid-forward connection is whether it’s the talent or the system.
The Demons lack an Oscar Allen or Max King or Tom Lynch as a long bailout option but having declined to chase one these past two years they have made their bed and must lie in it.
So Jacob Van Rooyen, Harrison Petty, Bayley Fritsch and McAdam will be the four marking threats — with Tom McDonald and Jake Melksham post ACL-recovery to fight for a spot.
Then Kysaiah Pickett (37 goals this year), Kade Chandler (24) and Alex Neal-Bullen (19 goals) will get to work at ground level.
Melbourne has a heap of kids only scratching the surface of their talent — Pickett, Tom Sparrow, Trent Rivers, Judd McVee, second-year tall Jefferson, defender Blake Howes, Charlie Spargo and Jake Bowey among them.
So get Oliver on track and keep the key forwards fit and this is still a list to be feared for many years.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Until West Coast calls out Harley Reid’s name the Demons might hope they can get a trade done for the No. 1 overall pick.
But the Demons can only really offer pick 6, 11 and a future first-rounder, having given away their future second-rounder (for Shane McAdam) and third-rounder (for Jack Billings).
The only remaining draft piece is Sydney’s second-rounder (for Brodie Grundy).
Handing over six, 11, a future second and third-rounder would decimate two entire drafts worth of picks for a single player.
The Demons will be very happy to take picks at 6 and 11 given players like 198cm defender Connor O’Sullivan and 193cm marking tall Nate Caddy and maybe even Daniel Curtin might be available by the time their pick 6 becomes 7, 8 or 9 on draft night.
Last year’s pick 15 Matthew Jefferson kicked 23 goals in his first year so they have some tall cover if Harry Petty leaves.
The Demons have high hopes for Blake Howes as a mid-sized defender but with May 31 years old and their midfield stacked they could do far worse than O’Sullivan as a succession plan.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Steven May. Another mighty season (fifth in the best-and-fairest) with two huge finals including a smacking of Charlie Curnow in the semi-final. But his strong words at the best-and-fairest about the loss to Collingwood will put a target on his back. If you talk the talk, you need to walk the walk. Every year.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
The off-season vibes have been diabolical.
Will Clayton Oliver be at Melbourne in 2025? Let’s call it 50-50 on available evidence.
It doesn’t change the fact this team is absolutely star-studded with an elite midfield and defence that likely would have been in a prelim if any of Melksham, Petty or Van Rooyen had been fit and bobbed up with three goals in the semi-final.
If the Demons can get their house in order they should believe they can win a second flag in the next 3-5 years.
2023 PLAYER RATINGS AND A 2024 BOLTER
Christian Petracca (4th), Max Gawn (34th), Jack Viney (81st), Angus Brayshaw (101st), Steven May (118th), Jake Lever (133rd).
Kysaiah Pickett was ranked 180th. He should believe he can be footy’s best small forward next year and a top-50 player.
CAP SPACE
The Demons have cap space for a big fish given they lost Luke Jackson, then Brodie Grundy and also cleared James Harmes’ 2024 salary when he moved to the Dogs.
They brought in Jack Billings but might only be paying $300,000 of his salary for the next two years.
So if Petty leaves next year they will have cap space and multiple early picks to replace him and few other list holes.
Gawn is 32 in December so a ruck succession plan is a must at some stage in the next 18 months.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2025
Ben King is staying. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan says he is staying.
Oscar Allen is staying put at the Eagles. Logan McDonald would head home if he left the Swans. Todd Marshall is out of contract but loyal to the Power.
So just snaring a 50-goal key forward is close to impossible.
But the uncertainty over Oliver and Petty means list boss Tim Lamb should be hitting every manager over summer urging them to keep their clients options open at the end of 2025.
TRADE BAIT
Clayton Oliver’s situation changes by the week but there is real uncertainty about his future.
Adelaide will move heaven and earth to secure Petty next year.
But they will need to pony up enough draft picks for the Demons to agree to a trade given they would budget for an end-of-first-round compensation pick if they kept him until 2025.
Call it a first and second-rounder from the Crows, similar to the Jake Lever trade the other way.
Lachie Hunter, Tom Sparrow and Jake Bowey are also out of contract but their futures are bright at the Demons.
Adam Tomlinson is out of contract at the end of 2025.
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