Simon Goodwin must fix Melbourne’s forward 50 issues or risks a second straight sets finals exit in two years
How can a team lose a game by seven points when they’ve had 32 more forward 50m entries? Jay Clark looks at the biggest issues facing Melbourne and the possible solutions.
It might be one of the biggest calls of Simon Goodwin’s coaching career.
Staring at the possibility of a second-straight straight sets finals exit, the Melbourne coach will on Friday morning try to solve the most jumbled-up Rubik’s cube in footy when he considers how the Demons can lose a game by seven points to Collingwood with 32 more forward 50m entries.
And then, somewhat extraordinarily, consider whether playing Brodie Grundy forward is the answer to his problems.
It has felt like Melbourne in recent weeks has put a line through Grundy, who gave his teammates one-by-one a pat on the shoulder as they sat shattered in the rooms after the qualifying final loss on Thursday night.
But if Jacob van Rooyen receives a one-match suspension for his forearm or elbow to Dan McStay’s head in the opening quarter on Thursday night, Melbourne may need another key forward.
It seems inexplicable that Melbourne could lose a qualifying final by seven points despite winning the inside 50s 69 to 37. It’s a number which will cause sharp pains in Goodwin’s stomach all weekend.
That sort of wastefulness is as rare as the white rhino and it is a throwback to Melbourne’s biggest headache going back to even before the pandemic.
There were shallow entries, wrong options, and sloppy set shots. Rushed decisions and lots of Collingwood numbers in defence.
After the game Alex Neal-Bullen said a lack of composure in front of the sticks cost them.
“I reckon it was actually our shots on goal, like the calmness piece to it. I felt like in the last quarter we had a lot of opportunities to kick through and we probably rushed it by a step or two and that is finals footy,” Neal-Bullen said.
But Richmond won the flag in a Covid-19 year in 2020 when the Tigers went down in the first final to Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, only to beat St Kilda, Port Adelaide and Geelong to win their third premiership in four years.
So Goodwin will roll out their journey this week to show it is possible. They can do the Harry Houdini.
But the specifics of the loss to Collingwood will hurt, because we have watched this movie before at Melbourne.
The reality is Melbourne struggled to get the ball in dangerous spots at times and when Angus Brayshaw went down in a volatile opening, it meant Christian Petracca needed to shuffle up from the forward line into the engine room.
Bayley Fritsch will rue the set shot which slipped off the side of his boot late and Trent Rivers blazed away in the last term when the Pies were on their knees.
The Dees could still have won this coming from 30 points down if they took their chances late.
But if van Rooyen gets rubbed out, the headache becomes a migraine, and Goodwin will have to break glass in case of emergency in search of another marking target.
But would he pick Grundy, Josh Schache or Charlie Spargo?
The three-card trick is a huge call - one of the biggest in Goodwin’s reign as coach considering the high stakes - as the Demons prepare for either Carlton or Sydney Swans at the MCG next week.
But Grundy is the most fascinating proposition.
The Demons dumped Grundy from the team because he and Max Gawn weren’t marking the Sherrin in attack, and when it came to ground the ball was bouncing back out of their forward 50m too easily when they were there.
Since Round 18, the Demons are third in the competition for scoring, largely without Grundy. They are more mobile, more dynamic without the second ruckman.
But Jake Melksham is a loss, they need to cover Brayshaw, and Tom McDonald had no impact in his return from four months out from ankle surgery.
So Goodwin will head along to the VFL match simulation against Carlton on Friday considering who to bring in for Brayshaw in the middle and potentially which key forward could replace van Rooyen, and straighten up and lengthen their forward connection.
If it’s not Grundy, consider his cards marked come trade time, if they aren’t already.
Port Adelaide have the locker already waiting.
McDonald got the call up to replace Melksham and didn’t fire, although it could be argued he tried to take Darcy Moore away from the ball at times.
He’ll be better for the run, McDonald, but this is it for Melbourne, potentially against a red-hot Carlton or the Swans next weekend.
The Demons are angry about the Brayden Maynard hit on Brayshaw, which ended Brayshaw’s night with concussion and maybe his September.
Goodwin said after the match: “We’ve got a pretty shattered player in there. You can only go by the facts – he jumped off the ground and knocked a guy out. I guess time will tell.”
Maynard will either get three matches or zero, and in any case will hope the incident was seen as a genuine attempt to smother the ball, and an unfortunate collision with Brayshaw after the Demon kicked it.
But this will be a restless weekend for Goodwin as he attempts to somehow sharpen the forward connection back to a level which sees the club get some reward for hard work on the scoreboard.
He is content, though, that the brand will stack up. It’s the execution, depth of entry, and skewed set shots which cost them.
And a second-straight straight-sets exit would be a poor result for a team as talented as the red and blue.
They started the clash against Collingwood as favourite with the bookies, but were pummelled in the middle in a frenetic opening term.
“We didn’t execute in front of goal and we didn’t get enough reward for our entries, but it’s the right way to play,” Goodwin said.
“We’ve had some games where we get a lot of repeat inside 50s, it’s a little bit from a method perspective – we just didn’t execute as well as we would have liked from our inside 50s, and that shows up on the scoreboard.
“We didn’t kick a big enough score to win. We’ve still got a bit to work on in that space.”
The Demons have to pick up their bundle and re-ignite the fire in a week’s time, something Neal-Bullen said they were confident they could do.
After a poor start, where Collingwood smashed Melbourne around the contest early, the Demons got the game largely back on their terms.
They just couldn’t convert.
Neal-Bullen said the Demons were capable of tidying things up in the forward half next week.
“This is why you work for a double chance. Collingwood are a great side. It’s just one of those games,” Neal-Bullen said.
“We felt like we didn’t connect as well as we would have liked (and have) over the past two months.
“But it is finals footy and we have got to find a way. We were down by 30 points and got within a kick so there is still a lot to like.
“We have got to acknowledge that but the connection piece probably let us down a little bit.
“But teams have done it before. They have lost the first final and come back and regroup and it galvanises a group.
“Not that we need to be galvanised, but we need to address what we need to work on and continue to push each other.”
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