Mick McGuane: Rebuild talk puts Essendon in ‘dangerous waters’

The Bombers’ defence was hit for six against the Crows, is there improvement coming? Mick McGuane writes, based on Brad Scott’s history, Essendon fans shouldn’t hold their breath.

How the mighty have fallen.

The AFL is a far better competition with a powerful Essendon — a club which has won the equal-most VFL/AFL premierships alongside Carlton and Collingwood.

But for too long Essendon have been mediocre.

They have never fully recovered from the drugs saga and have made some baffling decisions ever since.

The 2024 season brought long-suffering fans a sliver of hope.

After round 15, Essendon sat third on the ladder with nine wins and a draw from 14 matches.

The cake was almost baked.

The Dons have won two games since June 2024. Picture: Michael Klein

Since then, this club have come crashing back to earth, winning two of its past 11 games.

So what’s happened and why this sudden change of direction?

Asked during the trade period last October if expectations on Essendon needed to be tempered for 2025, list boss Matt Rosa replied: “No, we’ll be still looking to improve our on-field results next year”.

Less than six months later, coach Brad Scott essentially conceded this week that his team is in a full-blown rebuild.

It’s a dangerous precedent to set, selling a new narrative which aims to buy you time and silence the outside noise.

And many in the media are buying it and letting the Bombers off the hook.

Carlton were smashed by media outlets after their round 1 loss to Richmond — and rightly so.

But the same criticism hasn’t been poured upon Essendon this week after its nightmare performance against Adelaide.

Many may have had higher expectations on the Blues entering this year, but Bombers great Matthew Lloyd said only three weeks ago that there was “no reason” why his former side couldn’t record “12 or 13 wins” this year.

You have to ask: What has gone wrong?

This is a club which at the end of 2023 went and added an experienced quartet of Todd Goldstein, Ben McKay, Jade Gresham and Xavier Duursma.

Less than 18 months later they want to tell us they are now in a rebuild?

Essendon didn’t look like it was in a rebuild when it went and recruited four senior players less than 18 months ago, including defender Ben McKay. Picture: Getty Images

The reason coaches don’t like to admit they are in a “rebuild” these days is because it can affect the psyche of your current players.

If players don’t think they are going to challenge, it gives them an escape route.

After round 2, Essendon is putting itself in dangerous waters and I don’t like it.

It’s like, ‘Let’s lower expectations, tell the world what we are doing, in the hope we avoid outside scrutiny’.

But St Kilda showed last week that you can still win games with less talent than your opposition, if you bring great effort and intensity.

The Bombers don’t do that often enough and right now I’m not sure what they stand for or what their identifiable brand is.

From the top down, it is still a mess at Tullamarine — and it shouldn’t be accepted.

THE HAWKS’ COMPARISON

Scott made a winning start at the Bombers.

His first game in charge came against Hawthorn in round 1, 2023 and his team soared to a resounding 59-point win.

In round 1, 2024, Essendon again triumphed over the Hawks by 24-points.

Then this year, Hawthorn beat the Bombers by 26 points to kick off the season.

The round 1 results sum up the fact that in the past 24 months Essendon has gone backwards at a rate of knots and Hawthorn has developed into one of the competition’s biggest premiership threats.

And there are some identifiable reasons as to why that has been the case.

Listen to Sam Mitchell speak or watch his side out on the field.

The Hawks are a ruthless team — something that you couldn’t possibly say about the Bombers these days.

Sam Mitchell has set standards at Hawthorn which I don’t see at Essendon. Picture: Getty Images

Under Mitchell, standards are set and must be adhered to for players to get a game each week.

Essendon was once similarly ruthless, back in Kevin Sheedy’s days in charge.

But where is the Bombers’ aggression now? The ‘Essendon Edge’, as Scott once put it.

Even if you’re not getting results on a consistent basis, you have to play with some fight — within the rules — to give your supporters something to hang their hats on.

Off-field, the Hawks are getting it right, too.

They identified list gaps and went out and secured players to fill them, including Josh Battle, Tom Barrass, Jack Ginnivan, Mabiol Chol and Massimo D’Ambrosio over the past two years.

The Bombers are too nice on and off the field and it is a key reason why they find themselves in the hole that they are currently in.

THE BIG PROBLEM

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see Essendon’s glaring problem.

Defensively they remain inept.

My question is: Is Scott capable of fixing the issues? He can identify them, but fixing them is another thing.

Including his stint at North Melbourne, Scott has served as a senior coach for 12 seasons before this year.

In every one of those seasons, the premier has ranked top-six for points against.

Scott’s team’s have finished top-six for points against just once – in 2014.

At the other end of the table, Scott’s teams have rated bottom-six for points against in separate six seasons — including his first two years at the Bombers which were both ranked 15th.

If you want to have a shootout mentality and neglect the defensive side of the game you are not going to win many matches, let alone challenge for premierships.

Brad Scott has never been a coach whose sides have ranked highly when it comes to defence. Picture: Getty Images

Watching Essendon closely across the first two rounds this year, they look disconnected as a defensive group — particularly when pressing up the ground behind their attack.

It looks to me, that players are being instructed to hold their position in “lanes” or “channels” up and down the ground.

It’s like the players are taking the coaches message literally and their footy intuition and instincts are being compromised.

They look indecisive as to what they should do when it comes to team defence.

‘Should I go there or do I stand here?’

If a turnover occurs when the Bombers enter their forward 50, too many players are not squeezing hard enough to cover outlets which the opposition intend to exit through.

The players behind the ball are then too often caught out ball watching as the opposition moves into attack mode and they have no comprehension that their opponents are getting into dangerous space.

A lack of defensive pressure at the ball doesn’t help, either, and a team’s backline will always be exposed when that is the case.

This is Scott’s third season at Essendon and the players are still not all on the same page defensively.

That is why they gave up 115 uncontested marks against Adelaide last week and conceded a staggering 62 points against from their defensive half.

That’s inexcusable, insipid and uncompetitive.

Scott received a contract extension until the end of 2027 earlier this month.

But he and those who appointed him surely won’t last that long if the defensive issues are not resolved sooner rather than later.

THE LIST

Essendon has drafted and recruited some quality players over the journey.

The problem is, they let a large number of them walk out the door.

Joe Daniher was an All-Australian and in his prime before he departed for the Brisbane Lions at the end of 2020 and was then the catalyst in that club’s 2024 premiership.

Adam Saad was plucked from the VFL by the Gold Coast then moved to the Bombers but is now a walk-up starter each week at Carlton, while Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Port Adelaide) and Massimo D’Ambrosio (Hawthorn) are also playing regular games for rival clubs.

Letting D’Ambrosio depart was a massive blunder, given he is exactly the player the Bombers could do with on the outside with his run and classy kicking skills.

Essendon let Jake Stringer go to GWS for nothing at the end of last year and he has since transformed his body at the Giants. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Then last October, Essendon gave up Jake Stringer to Greater Western Sydney during the trade period in exchange for not much more than a pie and sauce.

Let’s not forget that Stringer was the Bombers’ second-highest goalkicker with 42 majors last season.

Essendon couldn’t get Stringer fit, but he now looks committed to the cause and has transformed his body within his first few months at the Giants.

For me, that raises questions about Essendon’s training standards and culture.

Why does Stringer respect his new environment and not the one he left?

Bombers captain Zach Merrett is a star and his mental, physical and emotional investment is unparalleled.

He is a man on a mission, but who is going to step up and support him?

It’s hard to say who Essendon’s second-best player is behind Merrett or who looms as the club’s next All-Australian.

Mason Redman, Darcy Parish, Jordan Ridley and Kyle Langford have all been there, but will they get to that level again?

An external review at the end of 2022 identified the need to beef-up development at the club, but the number of young rising stars on the list are still few and far between outside of Nate Caddy and Isaac Kako.

WHAT THEY NEED

Did Essendon pull the wrong rein ahead of last year’s draft?

The Bombers played it safe in trading their first pick to Melbourne, fearing that a bid would come on NGA product Isaac Kako before that selection and it would be swallowed up.

Melbourne went on to use what was Essendon’s pick 9 (which became pick 11) to secure Xavier Lindsay, a classy Gippsland Power midfielder who uses the ball well and is a neat left-foot kick.

To my eye, Lindsay is exactly the type of player at Essendon is screaming out for — and they perhaps could have secured him and Kako.

A bid on Kako did not come until pick 13 in the end.

Xavier Lindsay could be the type of player Essendon truly needs. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The Bombers should have also had a serious crack at All-Australian Dan Houston during the trade period last year, but he instead landed at Collingwood.

Houston’s ball use and intercept ability would be handy based on what Essendon currently needs.

Even Isaac Cumming or Caleb Daniel would have been perfect fits to fill the void across halfback.

Instead, the Bombers have used veteran midfielder Dylan Shiel in that position across the first two rounds, a position that he is clearly uncomfortable in and is not well-suited to.

Shiel is best used as an inside midfielder, who can explode out the front of stoppages.

His kicking efficiency is clearly a concern but I’d much prefer him make a kicking error going inside 50 rather than creating a turnover coming out of defensive 50.

There is reportedly a $2.5 million war chest available at Tullamarine.

The Bombers must be aggressive in the trade and free agency period this year and use it.

I hope they don’t think they are in the box seat to secure Harley Reid if he requests a trade back to Victoria.

I can’t speak for Reid, but the best young players generally like to see a strong club that has a winning attitude, not one that is conditioning its fans to be patient.

Would Harley Reid really want to go to Essendon if he is to request a trade home to Victoria? Picture: Getty Images

If Reid picks Hawthorn as his club of choice — if he indeed decides to leave West Coast — then Gold Coast’s Matt Rowell should be on their radar as he will stiffen up the midfield and show them what a competitive mindset looks like.

Geelong’s Ollie Dempsey is out of contract and would complement Essendon’s front-half nicely.

For the backline, St Kilda’s Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Port Adelaide pair Miles Bergman and Kane Farrell should also be targets.

The Bombers missed out on Houston last year.

They can’t afford to miss the boat on another big trade or free agency target again and just believe that going to the draft will fix their issues.

There are no guarantees with that approach.

WHERE TO START

The spotlight is back on Essendon in a big way on Thursday night as it prepares to tackle Port Adelaide.

So how can the Bombers respond after a poor first two weeks?

The first thing that I would be doing is going to Sam Durham and telling him he’s got the job on Power skipper Connor Rozee, who was instrumental last week with 39 disposals and two goals against Richmond.

Rozee must be put in the gun and be mentally and physically challenged, within the rules.

Durham’s teammates should also look to give Rozee physical attention whenever he goes past.

Don’t let him have an easy night and cut you apart.

Essendon must put Port Adelaide captain Connor Rozee ‘in the gun’ on Thursday night. Picture: Getty Images

I’d also be winding up Sam Draper so he can be the aggressive ruckman his team needs.

He needs to set the scene at the first centre bounce and impose himself on the contest against Jordan Sweet, because he is clearly the No. 1 ruckman ahead of Nick Bryan.

Harrison Jones must play forward, not only to support youngster Nate Caddy but also be another avenue to goal.

Andy McGrath should be earmarked for the role on in-form Port Adelaide forward Willie Rioli, while a plan must be put in place to ensure Kane Farrell does not have time and space to rebound cleanly from the back half.

I’d also move Nic Martin back to play Jones’ wing role, where he has traditionally played some of his best footy.

Magnet moves are one thing, but at the end of the day it will largely come down to effort and pressure for Essendon.

If they bring manic pressure and a tackling intent they can slow down Port Adelaide’s ball movement and give themselves a chance of winning.

Effort should be non-negotiable every week.

However, the Bombers’ woeful pressure rating of 159 against Adelaide last week showed that standards have slipped at this once ruthless and powerful club.

A change of competitive attitude when “without the ball” must take place at Marvel Stadium tonight, where the microscope will be on every player who dons the sash.

Please, Essendon, just forget about the rebuild narrative.

It is a long-term security blanket to cover issues that exist in the present, but I don’t hear it coming out of clubs like Geelong.