Mick McGuane on the big moves every non-finalist must make to improve in 2025
It’s the time of year where 10 clubs watch on with envy during September. MICK MCGUANE pinpoints the off-season moves every non-finalist needs to make to improve in 2025.
Having fallen short of playing finals in 2024, this year’s bottom 10 sides need to make some moves to climb the ladder in 2025.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has identified the big decisions he would make.
COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies must find a replacement for Nathan Murphy.
Don’t underestimate the influence that the premiership defender had in 2023 as a rock-solid, lockdown key defender alongside Darcy Moore.
Without Murphy this year, Collingwood was exposed down back especially when the opposition was in transition.
Billy Frampton (18 games) and Charlie Dean (eight games) were used in key defensive posts instead and were regularly opened up.
It’s why the Magpies are being linked to Adelaide’s Mark Keane, a 194cm backman who was on Collingwood’s list before deciding to return home to Ireland in January 2022.
While Keane has one year to run on a contract with the Crows, he would be a perfect fit for the Magpies as a player who stood up under plenty of heat down back this year.
If Keane is any chance of being lured back in the trade period, Collingwood should pursue it strongly.
The other priority for coach Craig McRae going forward is developing his next crop of young midfielders.
Scott Pendlebury (36) and Steele Sidebottom (33) won’t be around much longer and that area off the ground needs to be regenerated with some vitality and speed outside of Nick Daicos.
I’m not convinced Finlay Macrae, Reef McInness, Ned Long or Lachlan Sullivan are the answers long-term.
FREMANTLE
It’s time to make some tough calls on a couple of long-admired veterans.
Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters are both contracted for 2025, but the Dockers have to move past them next season.
Fyfe played 22 games this year, sometimes in an opponent control role.
It was about trying to take away the first possession gains from the opposition’s best inside midfielder.
However, when the game is in transition he is a liability who gets caught ball-watching and lacks speed and defensive endeavour.
Walters kicked 17 goals from 17 games this season but turns 34 years old next year and is unlikely to get a game if the Dockers land Richmond’s Shai Bolton during the trade period.
Bolton and Tigers teammate Liam Baker have both been linked to Fremantle and would help the club’s centre-forward profile immensely.
But Baker might be better used in the backline as a ruthless small defender who can provide some rebound alongside Luke Ryan.
Hayden Young’s move into the midfield this year was a big tick, but it came at a cost as the Dockers lost his ability to intercept and his aggressive ball use through the corridor from halfback.
It was a missed opportunity for Fremantle this year, which lost four-straight matches to finish the season after sitting third on the ladder.
That said, a 3-8 record against top-eight sides this year suggests that this team didn’t deserve to feature in September.
ESSENDON
Nic Martin’s move to half-back this year was widely applauded.
But if I were Bombers coach Brad Scott, I’d declare the experiment over.
Yes, Martin provided some great run and rebound off half-back, but he didn’t always get back to defend strongly if the ball was turned over.
Martin’s talents would be better used as a high half-forward or wing role next season, where he can be a part of the midfield and forward groups which haven’t been on the same page.
Essendon ranked fifth for inside-50 differential but a lowly 16th for scores per inside-50 this year, too often lacking creativity with their entries and kicking the ball to the skinny side of the ground.
Defensively, Scott still has a lot of work to do over summer after his side conceded the fourth-most points of any team this season.
Jordan Ridley and Zach Reid — who both had injury-interrupted campaigns — will feature prominently in the plans to improve in that area.
But will we ever see the best of Reid?
There is still a missing piece in the back half, though.
Andrew McGrath is the main small defender at the moment and he finds a lot of footy and defends with great intent — but he needs some help.
I would make a play for Gold Coast’s Connor Budarick, who has one year to run on a contract at the Suns but found himself playing a lot of VFL games this year.
Budarick is a high-quality small defender who could play a key role for Essendon next season.
ST KILDA
The Saints would be silly not to consider offering up Max King as trade bait in October.
Here’s the situation.
King has featured in 23 matches in the past two years combined due to shoulder and knee injuries.
This year he booted only 19 goals from 12 games — less than you’d expect from a player of his caliber on big money.
The other side of it is that you can mount an argument that St Kilda functions better without King drawing most of the ball.
With King in the side, St Kilda had a 5-7 record this season.
Without him, they went 6-5 — including taking the scalps of Sydney, Geelong and Carlton late in the year.
It would be a seller’s market for King, with clubs like Collingwood and Melbourne being desperate to secure a quality key forward.
So St Kilda at least has to give such a move some serious thought, especially on the back of the emergence of young key forwards Cooper Sharman and Anthony Caminiti this year.
Previously labelled a ‘boring’ team to watch by many, the Saints are now ‘sexy’ and play an attacking brand on the back of a rock-solid defensive system.
Midfielder-forward Darcy Wilson is a player of the future after featuring in every game in his debut season, while recruit Liam Henry changed the midfield dynamic with his speed before his injury.
But St Kilda still needs to add some midfield class and depth, while another running defender would also be handy.
Is Dan Houston the answer? I’d definitely look to get it done.
GOLD COAST
Coach Damien Hardwick added an expletive, but it is pretty clear that the Suns need to grow up.
Only two of their 11 wins this season came away from the comforts of their home turf on the Gold Coast and in Darwin.
That comes down to attitude and a lack of belief.
This club cannot expect to make its finals debut anytime soon if it cannot turn that record around and master playing on the road.
Outside of the interstate struggles, the Suns did a lot right this year.
Hardwick implemented a strong front-half game, with his side creating the second-most forward half intercepts in the competition and ranking fifth for time in forward half.
The spine is looking better, with Sam Collins down back, Mac Andrew able to play in a key post at either end, Ben King improving his contest work as a forward and Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson and Sam Flanders elevating themselves in the midfield.
Then there’s Touk Miller, who is so important to the playing group with his leadership and the two-way running he provides.
The club looks poised to secure Richmond’s Daniel Rioli and Collingwood’s John Noble during the trade period, who would both provide some run and carry out of the back half to kick start Gold Coast’s ball movement.
However, the bigger issue is not how the Suns’ exit defensive 50 but instead how they enter forward 50, with too many forward thrusts failing to find a target through poor decision making and ball use.
Contracted swingman Jack Lukosius could be out the door and would be a valuable asset for a lot of rival clubs, so Gold Coast must maximise what they can get for the 24-year-old if they part ways with him.
MELBOURNE
The Demons’ 2025 season is going to be shaped by the decisions they make around Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver during the trade period.
You have to ask yourself: Is the Petracca situation becoming untenable?
As much as Melbourne wants him to stay and honour his contract, can Petracca return to the club and be accepted by those around him?
The Oliver situation is equally intriguing.
If there is a buyer like Geelong, I would offload Oliver to send a message to the group that there is a level of standards required.
Oliver’s preparation going into the season was poor and he never got himself fully fit even though he was playing under duress for a huge part of the season with a suspected broken hand.
Melbourne’s football department will most likely back him in, but there’s a big question mark in my mind around whether he can ever get back to his powerful and dynamic clearance-winning best.
Now there’s even whispers that star small forward Kysaiah Pickett might want out to West Coast in what would be another huge blow.
The first move I’d make at pre-season training would be returning Harrison Petty to the defensive group.
His move forward this year did not work, with Petty kicking just nine goals across 20 games.
In defence, his running power complements Steven May and Jake Lever, allowing Lever to take a less dangerous opponent and roll-off to provide assistance in the air.
With Petty going back, the Demons should give 2022 draftee Matthew Jefferson a chance to prove himself at senior level next season, with the 195cm key forward being a player who would complement the more robust Jacob Van Rooyen nicely.
If Melbourne does lose Petracca or Oliver, it will need to look to this year’s draft and add some midfield class.
Any of Jagga Smith, Finn O’Sullivan, Sam Lalor, Sid Draper, Josh Smillie or Harvey Langford would fit the bill at pick 5.
ADELAIDE
There’s no more excuses for the Crows next year and there will be change at the top if coach Matthew Nicks can’t guide his side to September.
It will be Nicks’ sixth season in charge in 2025 and Adelaide took a step backwards this year as it recorded just eight wins and a draw.
There were issues across the ground, but the biggest problem area was in the midfield.
Adelaide ranked 14th for clearance differential and 13th for inside-50 differential.
Matt Crouch and Rory Laird have long been relied on in that area of the ground, but it’s time for change.
As good an extractor as Crouch has been at stoppages, he doesn’t penetrate the game enough.
As for Laird, he is not defending as well in transition as he should.
The class and youthful vitality of Izak Rankine, Jake Soligo and Sam Berry need to take the reins onball, perhaps with some cameos from Josh Rachele and likely recruit Alex Neal-Bullen rolling up from half-forward at times.
I’d also look to groom defender Max Michalanney for an onball roll, because he has the capacity to elevate his game as a taller 190cm midfielder.
There are an enormous amount of decisions to be made around the list, with Gold Coast’s Jack Lukosius and Greater Western Sydney pair Isaac Cumming and Harry Perryman all linked to the Crows.
Veteran key forward Taylor Walker is staying and his on-field coaching and education during the week is invaluable as Adelaide looks to develop emerging key forwards Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty.
However, Walker shouldn’t be required every week next year.
WEST COAST
What are the Eagles waiting for?
The trade and free agency period is a little over a month away and no player in their right mind would be entertaining a move to West Coast without knowing who the next coach will be.
It’s a crucial decision for the Eagles — and one that must be made sooner rather than later.
There are any number of list management decisions that need to be made, while the new coach also needs to get in there and drill down a game style which will suit the current group.
Whoever they are, the new coach must have significant experience and also bring a ruthless edge for a playing group which has become a little too passive in the way that it plays.
Harley Reid is going to be a star of the future, but he is one such player who needs some strong coaching.
He has bitten off a little too much at times and isn’t always playing with a team-first approach.
Increasing the Eagles’ scoring profile will be another focus for the new coach next year.
West Coast ranked as the second-lowest scoring team this season, averaging just 69 points a game.
That was despite a surprisingly good season from Jake Waterman, who finished with 53 goals.
Oscar Allen needs a big pre-season to get himself fit and firing for 2025 after managing only 10 games and 20 goals this season.
Tom Barrass will be a huge loss from the backline if his trade request to join Hawthorn is fulfilled.
NORTH MELBOURNE
If I’m the Kangaroos, there are three clear priorities at the top of my to-do list.
They are locking away young stars Luke Davies-Uniacke, George Wardlaw and Colby McKercher with contract extensions.
Davies-Uniacke will be a sought-after free agent as he comes out of contract next year.
Wardlaw and McKercher are both signed on until the end of 2026, but are certain to become targets for the new Tasmanian team.
Kangaroos’ fans have already been patient, with their side having won just 15 games in the past five years combined — including only six in the past two years.
But this young group still needs more time to develop and there is a clear void of leadership which will be difficult to address this off-season.
Coach Alastair Clarkson has to continue to drill his defensive structure into this group because the Kangaroos continue to be easy to play against.
This year they ranked 18th for points against from turnover, 17th for points against from stoppage and 18th for defending opposition ball movement.
When they do eventually improve their team defence, I worry that there are still not enough weapons forward.
Is Brayden George going to be the player the player North Melbourne hoped it was getting, after suffering another ACL injury in June?
Too much is left to too few at the moment in attack — namely Nick Larkey (46 goals this year), Paul Curtis (30 goals) and Cam Zurhaar (29 goals).
The Kangaroos are desperate for another key forward to support those three into the future.
RICHMOND
The golden era is over and the exodus is now on.
I say: Let them all go.
Premiership players Shai Bolton, Dan Rioli and Liam Baker have already made trade requests, while Jack Graham is a free agent.
Bolton and Rioli are still under contract at Punt Rd, but you are not going to get the best out of them if they don’t want to be there.
There is also talk that Tom Lynch could finish his career elsewhere.
He is turning 32 and has played just eight games in two years due to injury.
If Lynch has some currency on the market then you would have to look at that, too.
By letting go of so many stars, Richmond could end up with one of the best draft hands we’ve seen in a long time — for what shapes as a diverse and deep national draft pool this year.
If you are going to rebuild, now is the time to do it – especially given the new Tasmanian team is potentially on the way and will be handed a swag of priority selections in coming years.
If Richmond can gain eight of the top-30 draft picks this year, it could set itself up for another successful era down the track.
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