KFC SuperCoach AFL round 16 trade guide: Callum Mills, Darcy Cameron and best targets
With the byes behind us, it’s time to start thinking about how to finish your KFC SuperCoach team – and there are a host of top trade targets to make it happen this week.
We made it.
The month of byes is almost behind us and even if you struggled to field 18 scoring players in round 15, things should get a lot easier from this week.
If you’ve been frugal with your trades (or lucky) then you can attack the next few rounds with an eye to finishing your team for a push at league glory or a spot in the top 1011 in the overall rankings.
Even if you’re low on trades, it’s going to be hard to resist some of the bargains on offer this round – headlined by Callum Mills.
Mills was back in Sydney’s team on Saturday against West Coast and is expected to drop by about $40k after scoring 77 before being subbed out.
Round 15 was always going to be the toughest of the byes as so many top premiums were missing. But that only makes round 16 an even better time to get stuck into the end of financial year sales.
Yes, they even extend to KFC SuperCoach.
See our best buys for round 16 below.
CALLUM MILLS
Mills did pretty much everything KFC SuperCoaches wanted to see from him on Saturday. He was back at the coalface winning contested footy, racked up more than 30 points by quarter-time and then was subbed without a quarter to go on 77. As a result, he will be about $431k this week and ripe for the picking if you want to finish your midfield. The beauty is if you want to wait another week and ensure he isn’t going to be managed through every game, it shouldn’t result in you paying much more than this week’s bargain price anyway. We suspect he was taken out of the game as it was already well and truly over and there was no point risking his calf in his first game since round 9. A trade of Bailey Humphrey or Will Ashcroft to Mills will likely be popular in the next two weeks.
DARCY CAMERON
Unless Max Gawn gets FWD status at round 18 (when the last DPP additions take place), Cameron is your best option for a RUC-FWD to provide on-field scores as a forward and ruck insurance during the run home. In the past month, the ruck split between Cameron and Mason Cox has weighed heavily in Cameron’s favour in an encouraging sign for KFC SuperCoach teams considering bringing him in. He might not provide the consistent premium scoring of other options to finish your forward line, but that RUC cover could be so important later in the year if you’re running with a combination of Tim English, Rowan Marshall and Kieren Briggs – as so many coaches are. He’s got tough match-ups against Jarrod Witts and Tim English in the next two weeks, but this is still likely to be as cheap as you’ll get Cameron.
CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
If, like many KFC SuperCoaches, you have been waiting for Clayton Oliver to return – stop. There’s no guarantee Oliver will be back in round 16 as he continues to struggle with his recovery from a hamstring injury and infected blister which caused him to spend almost a week in hospital. Instead of punting on Oliver returning in top premium form, jump on Petracca this week instead. He scored only one point less than his 122 Break Even against Geelong, but it was a score which could have been much higher. Petracca kicked two points which were centimetres from being goals and tallied 10 turnovers against the Cats. If he’d been a bit cleaner, or if either shot sailed the right side of the posts, Petracca was looking at a score of 150-plus. He has 11 tons from 14 games this year and hasn’t scored less than 95 all season. If you can find the cash, Petracca might be the must-have premium midfielder for the run home.
ZAK BUTTERS $614,400 FWD-MID
The fact Butters was available for $479k after round 5 seems ridiculous now. The Brownlow Medal contender got as high as $658k but you can buy him coming off Port Adelaide’s bye for almost $50k less than that. Butters has averaged 121 KFC SuperCoach points in his last 10 matches and remains somewhat of a point-of-difference as he has eluded more than 80 per cent of coaches. He’s got a huge ceiling and scored 125 points against the Power’s next opponent Essendon in round 8. So although his Break Even is 136, you’re unlikely to get Butters much cheaper by waiting a week.
JACK ZIEBELL $467,800 DEF-FWD
If you’re one of almost 20,000 KFC SuperCoaches who traded out Jack Ziebell in the past month, it’s time to consider bringing him back. Ziebell’s role was much improved in the past two rounds before North Melbourne’s bye, featuring almost exclusively behind the ball and taking a total of 13 kick-ins across rounds 13 and 14 (nine were against GWS). His last score of 68 looks poor, but Ziebell’s time on ground was significantly down after copping a knock in the second half. He played 84 per cent against the Giants and only 64 per cent against Western Bulldogs. So, to still score almost 70 was encouraging. Unless Aaron Hall is recalled, trading Ziebell back in for DEF-FWD insurance has to be an option.
HARRY SHEEZEL $460,400 DEF-FWD
The push to jump off Sheezel hasn’t been quite as dramatic as Ziebell, but about 8 per cent of coaches dumped the first-year revelation between rounds 8 and 14. Sheezel was the biggest beneficiary of Brett Ratten axing Hall to the VFL, returning to defence against the Bulldogs and posting just his second ton of the past six weeks. Sheezel had a team-high 32 possessions in round 14, playing on from every one of his six kick-outs. Watch team news this week but as long as Hall isn’t back and he’s settled behind the ball, paying $460k to get Sheezel back shouldn’t be an issue. He’s no ordinary rookie after all.
PATRICK CRIPPS $457,000 MID
Much like his Blues, it’s hard to know whether Cripps’ 117-point game against Gold Coast was a return to form or a one-off. We won’t get the answer to that question until after this week’s match against Hawthorn. Last year’s Brownlow medallist was well down from rounds 8-13, plummeting in value from about $604k to $457k. Cripps averaged 75.6 during that six-round stretch, so waiting an extra week to get a better indication of whether his best form is back looms as the right option. His Break Even is almost 90, so even if Cripps does dominate against the Hawks his price is unlikely to rise by more than $10k.
SAM WALSH $514,400 MID
Those who paid up for Walsh in the hope he would get FWD status heading into round 12 were left disappointed when he failed to reach the 35 per cent threshold to become a DPP. That appeared to rule him out of the plans of most KFC SuperCoaches, with Walsh featuring only in 11 per cent of teams. What has been lost in the DPP debate has been that Walsh has dipped by almost $100k despite averaging 104.4 points a game, scoring less than 92 only once and posting seven tons in 10 matches. After averaging 117 and 111 in the past two years, there’s little question he presents incredible value at $514k and could be the perfect addition to finish your midfield.
JACK MACRAE $594,000 FWD-MID
One premium star who did pick up FWD status in round 12 was Macrae, who heading into his bye was the fourth-ranked forward for total points (average 108.2). Macrae’s centre bounce numbers have been way down, to the point he did not have one CBA for the first time in the past four seasons against North Melbourne in round 14. That has resulted in a slight scoring drop-off, but hasn’t had the dramatic effect most KFC SuperCoaches were expecting. Macrae scored 131 against the Bulldogs’ round 16 opponent Fremantle in round 6 and has tons in each of his past three games against round 17 foe Collingwood. Don’t skimp on a sub-$500k forward just to save cash, paying up for Macrae will pay off.
STEPHEN CONIGLIO $498,900 FWD-MID
It’s been a frustrating season for Coniglio owners. The GWS midfield star hasn’t gone close to hitting the same heights as he did in the back half of last year and, after five hundreds to round 7, has hit triple figures only three times since. His average of 99.1 ranks ninth in the forwards, but Sheezel and Ziebell are the only players who are cheaper in the top 10. Assuming you already have one of those two – or don’t want to trade in a player you moved on only a few weeks ago – Coniglio would be your best option under $500k. The top 5-6 forwards cost more than $560k and in a year where cash generation has been difficult, you might need to look for value options such as Coniglio to finish your side instead of filling your team with top premiums.
JOSH KELLY $612,700 MID
Kelly returned with a bang after three weeks out against Fremantle, scoring 164 KFC SuperCoach points, amassing 33 disposals and booting three goals. That was Kelly’s fourth successive ton and caused his price to climb above $600k for the first time this year. His durability is a concern, especially for coaches low on trades. Kelly has featured in 21 matches in the past two years but before that played only 43 matches in the three seasons prior. At his best there are few better KFC SuperCoach midfielders, evidenced by Kelly having scored 116 points or more in five of his 10 games this year. $612k is still a lot to pay for a player with a history of injury, though.
TARRYN THOMAS $343,800 FWD-MID
Thomas has jumped by almost $50k after scoring 89, 112 and 75 in his three matches this year. Despite that, he remains one of the best value picks this week for KFC SuperCoach teams running low on money. Say you had three trades left and needed to sideways trade a mid-pricer or rookie due to selection or injury issues. Thomas would provide a simple get-out option and has shown he’s capable of producing good enough scores to sit at M8 or F6 if required. He spent time behind the ball against Western Bulldogs in round 14 which has proven to be in lucrative role for North Melbourne players in recent years.
TOM LIBERATORE $615,600 MID
The unsung Bulldog was the sixth-ranked midfielder on average and seventh for total points heading into Western Bulldogs’ round 15 bye. Liberatore is averaging more than 110 points for the first time since 2014, scoring 11 tons in 13 matches this year including nine scores of 115 or more points. That makes him one of the most reliable premium midfielders of the year. But most KFC SuperCoaches have looked elsewhere, with Josh Kelly (1.7 per cent) the only player who also features in the top-10 midfielders for average score in under 10 per cent of teams. Liberatore was in 8.7 per cent of teams as of round 15 with Marcus Bontempelli, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca the only pure MID players boasting a better average.
DAN HOUSTON $539,600 DEF
The quiet achiever in defence this year, there should be more noise about just how well Houston is going. He has tempted KFC SuperCoaches before, including last year when he averaged 99 for the full season and 107 before the bye. Houston was ranked fourth for total points in defence heading into round 15 but still featured in only 1.5 per cent of teams. That was the lowest ownership of any player ranked in the top 20, which seems crazy for a player with six tons in his past eight matches. Had it not been for an aberration against the Bulldogs in round 13 when he scored 47, Houston would be heading toward $600k, not available for $539k. Port is flying and in the past five rounds Houston is averaging 109.4 (which includes that 47).
SAM DOCHERTY $539,800 DEF
Docherty is essentially the same price as Houston, coming in at $200 more expensive this week. And the similarities don’t end there. In the past five weeks he’s averaged 108.6, only 0.8 less than Houston. After a below-par start to the season (Docherty averaged 84.8 points to round 4) the Blues star has lifted his average to 99.4. He’s averaged 106.8 since round 5, only scoring less than 94 once. That’s more like the Docherty so many of us banked on as a defensive premium at the start of the year. Docherty was in 43 per cent of teams in round 2 but now only features in 7.2, making him a great point-of-difference in defence. But if you’re weighing up Docherty or Houston, go for the Power man instead.
RYAN MARIC
After three goals on debut, the reality of how tough life is going to be as a West Coast forward hit home against Sydney. Mid-season draftee Maric scored 16 points from three disposals and although he never stopped trying, opportunities were always going to be limited in a game which was over after about 15 minutes. Still, if you need a $102k player to facilitate your moves this week that is likely to play every round between now and then end of the season, Maric is the standout. Just sit him at F8 and hope you don’t need to call on him at any stage during the final rounds.
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