It’s time for Melbourne to move on from the ‘Big Five’ — but where is their next premiership coming from?

If there is one thing that Melbourne people know, it’s that they can’t hang on to the ‘Big Five’ for another year. So where is their next premiership coming from? And what will 2026 look like?

There are so many questions about Melbourne right now that it’s easy to get away from the one which must dictate the club’s direction over the next three months.

How far away are the Demons from their next premiership?

Their opponent at Marvel Stadium on Sunday has already asked themselves the same question and St Kilda coach Ross Lyon has made changes which he believes puts them on the right journey.

Melbourne isn’t.

Their list and salary cap is all over the shop. They have 15 players over the age of 28 and several on fat contracts which are going to need some magic dust come October when the Demons need to be a large presence in the trading period.

The Dees ‘Big Five’ may split in 2026.

Everyone at Melbourne knows they can’t go into 2026 with the Big Five again - Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney and Steven May.

The premiership heroes from 2021 are much-loved but while last year’s 14th placed finish was treated as the mulligan, backing it up with another ordinary season doesn’t cut the mustard.

A general consensus from those in the know, and some from other clubs, has the Demons in the four to five year bracket from being a contender again if they do everything right.

That begs the question about whether the best football for the stars who are getting paid the big bucks is behind them?

THE TOUGH CONVERSATIONS

Can Christian Petracca at 29 after a horrible 12 months regain his spark? Is Clayton Oliver at 28 still capable of being the 25-year-old version of Clayton Oliver?

Jack Viney won the best and fairest last year and got a four-year contract to supposedly keep him from going to North Melbourne yet at 31 he’s served up a year where his place in the midfield is being questioned.

Steven May is 33 and trouble continues to follow him. Off field there is a yearly issue and on field he keeps finding them as well. Would a club like the Western Bulldogs, who are in the premiership window, look at him for a year?

These are the conversations Melbourne needs to be having - and we’re sure they have whiteboards filled with these scenarios on it - behind-the-scenes over the coming weeks.

Christian Petracca would need to overcome his horror 12 months with the club. Picture: Graham Denholm/Getty Images

Clayton Oliver has a mega contract hanging over his head. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Moving Oliver because of his mega contract, which is believed to be somewhere between $1.2 million and $1.5 million per season, is almost impossible so if he wants out again, like he did last year, then it would be up to him to re-do his deal for less which would enable the Demons to get him somewhere else.

Petracca and Collingwood is a rumour that just won’t go away but the big issue is how the Magpies make it happen. Future draft picks is probably the answer, although it’s very complicated, but despite the denials the issues from last year are fixed, they still linger for both parties.

While that is all hypothetical, the facts are you can mount an argument that only four players improved on Melbourne’s list this year and that is a serious problem which needs urgent attention.

Jake Bowey, Daniel Turner and Jake Melksham, impressively at 33, lifted their output above previous levels this season. Kysaiah Pickett deserves to be included here because his role changed and he showed how damaging he can be as a midfielder.

But that’s it.

Who is answerable for this? Is it coach Simon Goodwin? Football boss Alan Richardson? Head of development Mark Williams? List manager Tim Lamb?

Goodwin is an intriguing discussion. Those in his camp feel like he hasn’t had a fair run at it in recent times with all the mixed messaging last year involving Petracca and Oliver, no CEO this season and instability of leadership,

He is contracted for next season so it’s highly unlikely the Demons would pay him out so it’s very much a Luke Beveridge scenario in 2026.

Kysaiah Pickett has been one to improve in 2025. Picture: Michael Klein

That worked for Beveridge and the Bulldogs, he coached the best he had in years and rightfully got an extension. But that doesn’t mean the method is gospel. If your next premiership is four to five years away, does incoming CEO Paul Guerra and president Steven Smith see Goodwin as the man on the dais then?

We’ll know soon enough as the pair finally take their positions in office.

To be fair to current president Brad Green he has done an outstanding job in listening to the fans and putting out a positive vibe about his football club.

He will still have a major hand in what happens next but the scenario is perfectly set up for Guerra and Smith to come in and make big statements from the start. Their football club needs that.

Smith, who played more than 200 games for the Demons and is a former MCC president, is well-liked and described as a “non bull-sh**ter” who is very good commercially and won’t be rattled by the task ahead.

Guerra is a man about town having been the CEO of the Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. He knows people and would understand he needs to hit the ground running.

Finding a home base for the club is a major issue and the Caulfield racecourse is currently the preferred option but the immediate priority for Guerra and Smith has to be football.

They do have an underbelly of talented youngsters to play with. Harvey Langford is a star, Xavier Lindsay has talent while Kade Chandler, Bailey Laurie, Judd McVee, Trent Rivers, Jacob van Rooyen, Caleb Windsor and Bowey provide a good base.

There is one template they would do well to follow.

When Hawthorn traded Brownlow Medallist Tom Mitchell and high-priced midfield star Jaeger O’Meara at the end of 2022 the outrage was in overdrive. It was at the end of Sam Mitchell’s first year as coach and the critics were calling the move madness and signalling a rebuild that would take years to show any green shoots.

Two years later Hawthorn finished sixth and this year they are again considered a premiership contender.

“Hawthorn made the bold move and people didn’t like it but Mitchell was saying we finished 13th (in 2022) with these guys,” one rival list manager said. “Melbourne must be saying we finished 14th with these guys last year and it’s going to be the same this year.”

Change is coming. How much is the million dollar question?