Every AFL club’s best and worst future pick trades after a decade of bets
There have now been 10 trade periods in which future picks could be moved by AFL clubs. Check out each sides’ best and worst move, including a big Magpie bungle.
Three-club swingman Lachie Henderson was football’s first man of a new era and kicked off a decade of gambles when Carlton traded him to Geelong in 2015.
Henderson joining the Cats was hardly a Lance Armstrong-type giant leap for club kind.
And neither was it one of the chips-in deals that would come but the Cats took one small step when they sent a future first-round pick to the Blues to get Henderson.
It was the first time a club had traded a future draft pick, with the new wave of AFL trading introduced that off-season.
Since then, future round one picks have been traded 40 times, sometimes as part of double-first deals, other times as part of complex multi-club swaps.
Any time a team sends away a future pick – especially a first rounder – they put some chips on the table in a gamble.
Some pay off big time – the Cats took a flyer on draft night in 2020 by swapping a future pick with Richmond to grab virtually unseen speedy teen Max Holmes.
Others can be disasters, like Collingwood handing over a future first in 2020 in what looked to be an innocuous trade of picks, only for that to become the No.3 choice 12 months later.
One of the most interesting gambles yet was the last deal done around future picks at the end of this year’s trade period.
West Coast chose to take Hawthorn’s 2025 round one pick instead of Carlton’s, a decision that will be closely watched all of next year.
Trades for future picks can still be made in the lead up to November’s draft and then a window will close.
A decade after Henderson opened the door, the game will change again next year when clubs can trade picks two years in advance.
To mark the end of this decade of wagers, here is every club’s best and worst trade surrounding a future pick.
ADELAIDE
Worst trade: 2016 – Adelaide gets: Curtly Hampton, GWS gets: 2016 R2 pick (tied to Adelaide)
The Crows targeted big-bodied Curtly Hampton from the Giants and it didn’t work out, as he played just 12 games for the club.
The round two pick Adelaide gave away became important in a couple of respects.
The Giants used it as part of a package to get up to pick three in 2016, then flipped that to move to No.2 and draft Tim Taranto, while the Lions got that No.3 choice and used it on Hugh McCluggage.
The Adelaide pick floated around the league and ended up back with Fremantle, who drafted important ruck Sean Darcy at pick 38.
Best trade: 2021 – Adelaide gets: Jordan Dawson, Sydney gets: 2022 R1 (tied to Melbourne)
Any time you get a future club captain in the door it has to be a win.
The Crows moved on Melbourne’s future first in that trade – secured earlier in the trade period in a three-team swap – and landed Dawson.
The draft pick would end up at No.18 and with Hawthorn, who picked bussing star Josh Weddle, but the Crows would do this deal again in a heartbeat.
BRISBANE LIONS
Worst trade: 2019 – Brisbane gets: pick 29, 71, 2020 R1 (Port Adelaide), Port Adelaide gets: Pick 16, 52, 55, 72
Clearly the best player taken with any of these draft picks was Mitch Georgiades to the Power with pick 16.
The future first got stuck at No.22 thanks to Port making a preliminary final in 2020 and was used by Melbourne on Bailey Laurie.
The Lions did get some value back by including that pick in a trade with Melbourne which helped net Kai Lohmann, so this deal could eventually end up as a positive for the Lions.
Best trade: 2022 – Brisbane gets: Josh Dunkley, 2023 R3 (Western Bulldogs), Western Bulldogs get: Pick 21, 2023 R1 (Brisbane), 2023 R2 (Brisbane), 2023 R4 (Geelong)
That’s a lot of picks out the door for Josh Dunkley but a clear win for the Lions.
Pick 21 eventually became 24 and the Bulldogs took Charlie Clarke, who was delisted after one game.
The future first bounced around the league, with the Dogs using it as a chip to move up to No.4 in the 2023 draft, and the selection eventually landed at No.23, which North Melbourne used on Riley Hardeman.
The gamble here was that the future first would haunt the Lions and it clearly didn’t, landing outside the top 20 as Dunkley became a key piece in a premiership team.
CARLTON
Worst trade: 2016 – Carlton gets: Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Pickett, 2017 R2 (GWS), GWS gets: Pick 45, 58, 2017 R1 (Geelong)
This is one of a series of swings made by the Blues in this era, sending out picks for unproven players.
Marchbank was injury riddled and delisted this year, while Pickett didn’t make the grade.
That future first that was sent out, bounced to Brisbane who picked up Zac Bailey.
Clearly, Bailey is the best part of this deal.
Best trade: 2018 – Carlton gets: Nic Newman, Sydney gets: 2019 R4 (Carlton)
Nothing better than trading in a very good player and handing off a late pick that doesn’t get used.
The Swans didn’t bother with the future fourth they got for Newman, who is now one of the better half-backs in the league.
COLLINGWOOD
Worst trade: 2020 – Collingwood gets: Pick 24, 30, 2021 R4 (Geelong), GWS gets: 2021 R1 (Collingwood)
You can sort of see where the Pies were coming from with this one.
Under Nathan Buckley, Collingwood had won finals in each of the previous three season and appeared right in the premiership window, so the expectation was that 2021 first would be deep in the teens.
In the end, GWS started the 2021 draft with that choice as pick two.
A father-son bid on Sam Darcy bumped it down to No.3 and the Giants took Finn Callaghan, who would be a massive part of Collingwood’s midfield right now.
A year earlier, the Pies spent their beefed up 2020 draft hand with these four picks: Ollie Henry, Fin Macrae, Reef McInnes, Caleb Poulter and Liam McMahon.
A few swings there and a lot of misses.
Best trade: 2022 – Collingwood gets: Bobby Hill, GWS gets: Pick 43, 2023 R2 (Collingwood)
How about this for instant impact.
Within 12 months of this trade Bobby Hill was a Norm Smith medallist and the two picks sent out became project rucks Max Knobel and Liam Fawcett, neither of which have played.
ESSENDON
Worst trade: 2018 – Essendon gets: Dylan Shiel, 2019 R2 (GWS), GWS gets: Pick 9, 2019 R1 (Essendon)
This one didn’t actually turn out to be a disaster.
Shiel hasn’t been worth two first-round picks but the Giants used No.9 on Jye Caldwell, who is now a Don.
The future pick ended with Port Adelaide, who picked up Miles Bergman at No.14, an important part of the future of the Power.
Not quite a fleecing.
Best trade: 2021 – Essendon gets: Peter Wright, Gold Coast gets: 2021 R4 (Essendon)
Peter Wright may have fallen out of favour in 2024 but to secure a club best-and-fairest winner for a future pick that wasn’t used is a huge tick.
That’s perfect buy-low trading.
FREMANTLE
Worst trade: 2022 – Fremantle gets: 2023 R3 (Carlton), Carlton gets: Blake Acres
A near-perfect trade for Carlton was a sell-low for Fremantle.
Acres was on the way out at Fremantle but this return was minimal.
The Dockers eventually sent off that pick and it would become Brisbane youngster Zane Zakostelsky.
Best trade: 2023 – Fremantle gets: Pick 34, 2024 R1 (Collingwood), Collingwood gets: Lachie Schultz
The Magpies may still argue they could get the best of this deal, with Lachie Schultz just stepping into his prime.
But to get a second-round pick and a future first was a purple win.
The pick 34 was used in a later trade that led to the Dockers drafting Cooper Simpson.
And the future first now sits at No.11, which was instrumental in getting Shai Bolton to Fremantle.
Like John West fishing for the best, a great net win for the Dockers.
GEELONG
Worst trade: 2015 – Geelong gets: Lachie Henderson, Carlton gets: 2016 R1 (Geelong)
We’re going all the way back to the start for this one but it is harsh on the Cats to call this a bad trade.
Henderson was a very handy defender for much of his 89 games in the hoops.
The future first eventually landed with Brisbane, who grabbed future flag winning wingman Jarrod Berry.
Best trade: 2020 – Geelong gets: Pick 20, Richmond gets 2021 R1 (Geelong)
A brilliant manoeuvre on draft night.
The Cats saw something they liked and flipped a future first for Richmond’s pick 20, and promptly selected athlete turned best-and-fairest winner Max Holmes.
Holmes has grown so much that Patrick Dangerfield’s bold comparison to Chris Judd is getting less and less ridiculous.
The Tigers held on to the future pick and selected Tom Brown at No.17, a promising player but several rungs below Holmes’ potential.
A close runner-up for the Cats was getting Jack Bowes and pick seven for a future third in a Gold Coast salary dump in 2022.
GOLD COAST
Worst trade: 2015 – Gold Coast gets: Picks 6, 29, 2016 R1 (Melbourne), Melbourne gets: Pick 3, 10, 43
A clear bet on the next year, the Suns moved back in the order and banked a future pick.
The problem was the Demons drafted a genuine ace in Clayton Oliver with pick 3, while the Suns took Callum Ah Chee with pick six and spent the future choice on Will Brodie.
Gold Coast got very little value out of that, while the Demons landed a four-time best-and-fairest winner.
The Dees used pick 10 in a later deal for Thomas Bugg and the draft pick that secured Sam Weideman.
Best trade: 2016 – Gold Coast gets: Pick 10, 2017 R2 (Hawthorn), Hawthorn gets: Jaeger O’Meara
We will cover off why this was a mistake for the Hawks.
It was a good move for the Suns in the end, they took Jack Bowes with pick 10, who gave good service before being forced out due to salary cap issues.
And the future second rounder helped the Suns land a future first in a trade the year after.
GWS GIANTS
Worst trade: 2016 – GWS gets: Brett Deledio, Richmond gets: 2017 R3 (GWS) and 2017 R1 (Geelong)
It didn’t happen for Brett Deledio in orange, and in hindsight trading so much for him after soft tissue injuries crept into his game in the late Richmond years was a mistake.
Both of the draft picks became Brisbane premiership players.
The round three choice was used on defender Jack Payne.
And hopefully you have been paying attention, because that future first has popped up before – it was used on Zac Bailey.
Best trade: 2020 – GWS gets: 2021 R1 (Collingwood), Collingwood gets: Picks 24, 30, 2021 R4 (Geelong)
This trade has been covered off as a loss for the Pies as 50-gamer Finn Callaghan blossoms.
He gathered 550 disposals and six Brownlow votes in 2024.
HAWTHORN
Worst trade: 2016 – Hawthorn gets: Jaeger O’Meara, Gold Coast gets: Pick 10 and 2017 R2 (Hawthorn)
One of a few swings in the later years of Alastair Clarkson, the trade for Jaeger O’Meara didn’t work.
He played 99 games for the Hawks and wasn’t a star.
The pick 10 that was sent out was used on Jack Bowes, while the future choice became Liam Ryan.
The Hawks ironically tried to lure Ryan to Waverley last season.
Best trade: 2023 – Hawthorn gets: Jack Ginnivan, pick 39, 2024 R2 (Collingwood), 2024 R4 (Collingwood), Collingwood gets: Pick 33, 2024 R2 (Hawthorn), 2024 R3 (Hawthorn)
Now we are a year on, we can add this one up properly.
The Hawks got Ginnivan in this deal, plus 39 in last year’s draft and 33 and 70 in the 2024 selection.
The Pies got 33 last year, plus 36 and 55 in 2024.
In the draft value index, Collingwood’s picks equal 1272 points and Hawthorn’s add up to 1048.
When you put Ginnivan on top of the Hawthorn haul that is a big win.
The Pies and Hawks made the bet on the swap of future seconds that the Hawks would stay in the bottom four and the Pies in the top four this year, but we now know that is not how it landed.
Of the future choices, Hawthorn somehow got the better pick while getting Ginnivan in the door.
That’s great future trading.
MELBOURNE
Worst trade: 2023 – Melbourne gets: Shane McAdam, Adelaide gets: 2024 R2 (Melbourne)
There is still time for Shane McAdam to prove us wrong here but giving up a future second for him appears overs right now.
And 12 months on, the pick the Crows got was sent back to the Demons for Alex Neal-Bullen.
Essentially, the Demons traded McAdam, who played three games for one goal this year, for Neal-Bullen, who finished third in the club best-and-fairest.
Best trade: 2017 – Melbourne gets: Jake Lever, pick 35, 2018 R3 (Adelaide), Adelaide gets: Pick 10, 2018 R1 (Melbourne), 2018 R4 (Melbourne)
When you are trading away futures for a player, you want that future to be as low as possible come draft night.
The Dees targeted and landed Jake Lever in 2017 and the next year made a preliminary final for the first time in 18 years.
As a result, that future first handed over ended up at No.19, used by Carlton on Liam Stocker.
The No.10 pick also went to Carlton and used on Lochie O’Brien.
Meanwhile, the Dees added a key piece to the backline and used pick 35 on Harrison Petty.
Get out the champagne for a deal like that.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Worst: 2023 – North Melbourne gets: Dylan Stephens, pick 25, Sydney gets: Pick 44, 2024 R1 (North Melbourne concession)
Former Swan Dylan Stephens could yet have a good career with the Roos, and the club was forced into trading this concession pick by the AFL, but the value of that choice outshines everything else in this trade.
North would use pick 25 in the deal to get Zac Fisher, who similar to Stephens, was only OK in his first year at Arden St.
It’s not a disaster, but far from a success.
Best: 2015 – North Melbourne gets: Pick 17, 26, Brisbane gets: Ryan Bastinac, pick 38, 40, 2016 R3 (North Melbourne)
This is cheating a little.
The Roos just don’t have too many wins from future trading, rarely coming out genuine winners.
This deal clearly wasn’t centred around the future third that the Roos gave out but it did help get in two picks that at least became useful players.
Pick 17 was used on Ben McKay and No.26 on Ryan Clarke.
At least that is some kind of win.
PORT ADELAIDE
Worst: 2023 – Port Adelaide gets: Ivan Soldo, pick 50, Richmond gets: Pick 41, 49, 2024 R2 (Fremantle), 2024 R4 (Port Adelaide)
We will know more about this one when the prized pick is used in November.
St Kilda currently holds that future second, which sits at pick 32 before the draft.
Right now that appears more valuable than Ivan Soldo, who wanted to leave the Power leading into the most recent trade period.
Soldo could yet claim that No.1 ruck role but at one point during the trade period, Port was seeing this trade as an error.
Best: 2020 – Port Adelaide gets: Aliir Aliir, Sydney gets: 2021 R2 (Port Adelaide)
A perfect example of finding a player and sending out a future pick that was stuck late down the order.
The Power picked right in wrenching Aliir Aliir out of the Swans, who has become a vital cog in Ken Hinkley’s defence.
And the future pick ended up all the way down at No.37, with West Coast using it on Rhett Bazzo.
ST KILDA
Worst: 2015 – St Kilda gets: Nathan Freeman, Collingwood gets: Pick 63, 2016 R2 (St Kilda)
Many fans of both the Saints and Pies will forever see Nathan Freeman as a ‘what if’ after knee injuries ruined his career.
St Kilda took a punt on the former No.10 pick in 2015 and he played just two games for the club.
The future pick that was sent away eventually landed with Port Adelaide, who used it on Willem Drew, an important puzzle piece for the Power.
Best: 2016 – St Kilda gets: Jack Steele, GWS gets: 2017 R2 (St Kilda)
The Giants did use this pick on Brent Daniels, so it’s not all bad for the western Sydney team.
But the Saints got in a club captain and dual All-Australian for a future second rounder.
Sorry for this, but that was a genuine steal.
SYDNEY
Worst: 2021 – Sydney gets: 2022 R1 (tied to Melbourne), Adelaide gets: Jordan Dawson
This trade was covered off as a win for the Crows earlier but it’s worth revisiting for the disappointment it ended up being for the Swans.
Sydney lost Jordan Dawson, then used the future pick in a trade in 2022 for pick 27 – Cooper Vickery, who was delisted without playing a game – and future second and third rounders from Hawthorn.
The Swans offloaded those two futures in minor deals, while the Hawks used the pick gained to grab Josh Weddle.
The Swans got little return, while two other players are forging strong careers elsewhere.
Best: 2018 – Sydney gets: Pick 24, West Coast gets: 2019 R2 (Sydney)
This one was draft night quick thinking.
The Swans jettisoned a few picks to match a bid on Nick Blakey at No.10 and quickly got on the phone to West Coast, offering a future second-rounder for No.24.
That would slide to No.25 and the Swans nabbed tough onballer James Rowbottom.
A year later, that future pick would be used on Jeremy Sharp at No.27.
WEST COAST
Worst: 2019 – West Coast gets: Tim Kelly, pick 57, 2020 R3 (Geelong), West Coast gives: Pick 14, 24, 33, 2020 R1 (West Coast)
This isn’t a fully-fledged disaster given the picks handed out by the Eagles didn’t become stars.
Geelong used pick 14 on Cooper Stephens, and the future first became Ryan Angwin.
But the Cats used the future first in a trade to get Jeremy Cameron, so that is a huge tick for the Cats.
West Coast gave up too much here in a bid to stay in the flag window.
Best: 2017 – West Coast gets: Pick 21, 26, 37, 2018 R2 (Gold Coast), Gold Coast gets: Pick 50, 2018 R1 (West Coast)
As this list has proven, often selling a future first for a number of picks in the 20s and 30s backfires.
But not when you go on and win the flag the year you’ve given up the future pick and when you hit in the draft.
The Eagles picked Oscar Allen at 21, Liam Ryan at 26, Jack Petrucelle at 37.
And the future first would eventually land down at No.22, used by GWS on Xavier O’Halloran.
A great gamble from the West.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Worst: 2022 – Western Bulldogs get: Pick 21, 2023 R1 (Brisbane), 2023 R2 (Brisbane), 2023 R4 (Geelong), Brisbane gets: Josh Dunkley, 2023 R3 (Western Bulldogs), 2023 R3 (Melbourne)
This didn’t work out for the Bulldogs.
Charlie Clarke was taken with pick 21 and delisted after one game.
The future first was used to get up the order and draft Ryley Sanders, who promises to have a big career but didn’t get a chance to show much in his first season.
The return so far is a long way short of Josh Dunkley’s achievements for the Lions.
Best: 2020 – Western Bulldogs get: Adam Treloar, pick 26, 33, 42, Collingwood gets: Pick 14, 2021 R2 (Western Bulldogs)
Perhaps a bit cheeky to label this as such a big win given the Pies were selling low on Treloar.
But the Dogs got in at the right time and made the most of it.
Treloar is possibly the club’s best recruit of this century and the outlay of pick 14 ended up being Ollie Henry, who has since left Collingwood, and North Melbourne youngster Miller Bergman.
The Bulldogs ended up trading 26 back to the Pies, who used it on Liam McMahon.
And picks 33 and 42 were handy in matching a bid for Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
Strong business all-round there by the Dogs.
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