Eight more wins to play AFL finals

Teams who scored Round 1 wins may need only eight more victories to feature in finals in the AFL’s new 17-round season.

Geelong players get their jumpers off the rack during a training session at GMHBA Stadium on Tuesday

Teams who scored Round 1 wins may need only eight more victories to feature in finals in the AFL’s new 17-round season.

An study by Champion Data of what a 17-game season would have looked like in 2019 shows Geelong would have finished a game clear atop of the ladder.

Richmond were the big losers, finishing sixth, while the Western Bulldogs scraped into the top-eight with a 9-8 record.

Only one game and percentage separated 13th placed Essendon from seven-placed Port Adelaide on the 17-game ladder, indicating how hotly contested this season could be. The analysis was based on the results of each team playing the 17 other sides once last season, with only the first result included where double-up matches occurred.

AFL coaching great Leigh Matthews said it would be as important as ever for teams to bank early wins this season.

“Whether it’s 22 games or 17 games, to play finals you’re probably going to have to win more than you lose,” Matthews said.

“So the sooner you get a brick on the wall by winning, the better. That’s no different to any other year, but we know this season is a bit all over the place for the obvious reasons of it all.”

Geelong beat all but four teams the first time they played them last season, those sides being Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Brisbane. In the next four weeks, they play the Hawks, Carlton and Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium, along with a short trip to the MCG to tackle Melbourne.

Defender Tom Stewart says the Cats know all of the nuances associated with their home track, which is 167m long but only 112m wide from wing to wing, making it 10m narrower than any other venue in the AFL.

“I don’t think the (lack of) crowd is going to come too much into it, it’s more the surface area,” Stewart said.

“Teams feel they can get crammed in a bit here and we can really defend well, which is what we like to do here. We just love to defend this ground really well and make it as small as possible.”

Richmond went 11-6 from their first encounter with each opposition last year, but went on to win all five of their double-up matches. The Cats suffered a 32-point loss to GWS in Round 1 in March but have traditionally been strong season starters.

Chris Scott’s team won 11 of its first 12 matches in 2019 and eight of its first 12 matches the previous two seasons.

Richmond remains the 2020 premiership favourite with bookmaker TAB at $4.50, ahead of Collingwood ($6). Geelong is rated a $15 longshot.

Meanwhile, Majak Daw has every chance to complete a remarkable AFL return in Round 2 but North Melbourne have some fresh injury concerns ahead of the season restart.

Ed Vickers-Willis (dislocated toe) and Taylor Garner (hamstring tightness) left Tuesday’s training session early, while Nick Larkey (sore foot) trained away from the main group.

It was the Kangaroos’ first full-contact session since the AFL came out of shutdown. Vickers-Willis has not played a senior match since suffering a serious knee injury in Round 1 last year and is unlikely to return against GWS on June 14.

Captain Jack Ziebell (knee) and Paul Ahern (hamstring) are set to be given the green light to take on the Giants and young bull Kyron Hayden (Achilles) completed Tues­day’s session.

Daw is in contention for selection despite having not played at AFL level since suffering serious hip and pelvic injuries in a fall from Melbourne’s Bolte Bridge in December 2018. Daw, 29, was due to return against St Kilda in Round 1 but was a late withdrawal through illness.

Robbie Tarrant is a mainstay at fullback, with Josh Walker, Sam Durdin and Ben McKay all in the selection mix.

“We’ve got a real line-up of players in our backline and that’s not set yet,” Kangaroos coach Rhyce Shaw said.

HERALD SUN, AAP