Collingwood v Brisbane: Mick McGuane’s ultimate 2023 AFL Grand Final preview
Who will win the biggest game of the season? One of the best tactical minds in the AFL Mick McGuane weighs in on both sides and says why the Magpies will come out on top.
The AFL Grand Final is here as Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions vie to get their hands on the 2023 premiership cup.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane takes a deep dive into the two sides and what we can expect on Saturday.
COLLINGWOOD
What to expect
The Magpies will be out to win their own footy, because they can’t afford to lose territory against this Lions side.
However, when they don’t gain first possession you will see a swarm of Collingwood players surround whichever Brisbane player does have the ball.
When on-song, the Magpies are arguably the best pressure team in the competition.
With ball in hand, Collingwood plays with a go-forward mentality at speed in a bid to gain territory and head into an open forward line where their efficiency can be a point of difference.
The Magpies will again put a big focus on stoppages, having kicked 11 of their 15 goals from stoppages last time they met Brisbane in round 23.
The key
Pressure and team defence.
Collingwood’s pressure must be at an all-time high, because we know that the Lions are an elite ball movement who can score heavily when they are allowed to play their way.
The Magpies must work to take away Brisbane’s uncontested marks and ensure the game stays in motion by forcing the Lions into as many kicking errors as possible.
If the Lions are allowed to control the game through kick-mark — fuelling their territory game and providing opportunities for their dangerous forwards — Collingwood will be in for a long day.
The challenge
Kicking a winning score through being highly efficient going inside-50.
The Magpies only registered 9.6 (60) in their qualifying final win against Melbourne and managed just 8.10 (58) in their preliminary final triumph over Greater Western Sydney.
Against Brisbane, you would suspect that nine goals will not be enough to win the Grand Final.
The Magpies have generally been able to find a way to kick multiple goals this year in a short period of time, scoring bags of goals in burts.
They have been the most efficient team in the competition at scoring a goal once inside-50, going at a rate of 26 per cent.
When Craig McRae’s side last faced the Lions in round 23, they kicked six goals from 12 inside-50 entries during a third-quarter blitz.
That shows that the Magpies have the ability to kick a winning score this week.
However, they are going to need to take their chances and be accurate when having shots at goal.
The concern
Defending turnovers.
In round 4, Brisbane scored 75 points from turnovers against Collingwood.
It did even better when the sides met again in round 23, scoring 82 points from turnovers.
Overall this year, the Magpies have rated as the second-best team in the competition at defending turnovers.
However, they have failed twice against the Lions and therefore need to stop the rot.
The defensive group led by Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy, Jeremy Howe, Brayden Maynard and Isaac Quaynor must be at the top of their game this week and communicate well in a bid to cover Brisbane’s diverse forward line.
The Magpies must also get after the ground ball in defensive 50 — which is an area of expertise for the Lions.
The theme
Ball security and kicks to advantage.
Collingwood has to be effective with its ball use, because it can ill afford to fuel the Lions’ turnover game through poor execution or poor decisions.
The Lions have mastered their turnover game this season, ranking as the No. 1 team for both points from turnovers and points against from turnovers.
If Collingwood can limit blatant clangers — which is easier said than done in a high-pressure Grand Final — it can take away Brisbane’s major scoring source.
Maintaining possession must be front of mind with every Collingwood player when in control of the ball.
X-factor
Bobby Hill.
The small forward’s match-up with Conor McKenna will be intriguing.
Hill regularly gets himself in the right place at the right time, possesses electrifying speed both in offence and defence and goes hard at his opponent’s body when executing chase down tackles to impose himself on the game.
Such defensive acts generate an enormous amount of enthusiasm from his teammates and create perceived pressure which can force mistakes that Collingwood must capitalise on.
A three-goal return is a real possibility.
The star
Jordan De Goey.
After a huge preliminary final, can he set the scene in the season decider?
De Goey’s power and intensity was on display against GWS last week and a repeat of that performance would serve Collingwood well and could see the midfielder finish with a Norm Smith Medal around his neck on Saturday.
De Goey has a great balance in his game, with 17 of his 34 touches last week being contested.
He also racked up an astounding 13 clearances against the Giants — and don’t forget that McRae can play him forward to hit the scoreboard when required.
If I were the Magpies …
Scott Pendlebury has to start onball, where he cannot only bring his on field leadership but also work to limit Josh Dunkley’s in-close ball winning ability.
If Pendlebury can win first possession himself, he will not only help take away a strength of the Lions but also help kickstart his own side’s offence.
Dunkley will likely try to get to De Goey, but if Pendlebury goes to Dunkley then De Goey could get off the chain with a more favourable match-up.
I’d also start Tom Mitchell in the middle, who needs to concentrate his efforts on limiting the impact of Lachie Neale at stoppages, while also winning plenty of first possession himself.
Nick Daicos should start off halfback and be allowed to control his movements from there.
As the match opens up Daicos can move into the midfield or even be used as a creative forward, depending on the game trends.
I would put out a general red alert for all my forwards to be conscious of Keidean Coleman.
You can’t allow him to have time to assess the game in front of him, because his kicking and metres gained are critically important for the Lions’ offence.
Billy Frampton comes into the side and plays on Joe Daniher, freeing up Jeremy Howe to move forward in the absence of Dan McStay.
Frampton has played on Daniher twice this year and his inclusion helps free up Moore to read the game and become Collingwood’s most influential interceptor, which is something they desperately need.
Frampton and Howe are both swingmen who could switch roles in-game if required.
BRISBANE LIONS
What to expect
A confident Brisbane team which has built its game around contest and territory over recent years.
The Lions have a great capacity to win the ball inside the contest and then get it to the outside in a highly-efficient manner, fuelling their territory game.
The midfield group led by Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage understand each other’s strengths well and play to them.
The Lions have also mastered their turnover game this year, which could have a big say in this result.
Not only do they punish opposition sides for their turnovers, but they are also incredibly good at defending their own turnovers.
The key
Dominating the turnover game.
Against Collingwood in round 4, Brisbane scored 75 points from turnovers — its fifth-best result of the season.
When the teams met again in round 23, the Lions went one better as they scored 82 points from turnovers — their fourth-best result of the season.
Overall, Brisbane only scored 116 points in round 4 and 124 points in round 23, so that is a huge percentage of their score that has come from turnovers in both games.
The Lions have ranked No. 1 for both points from turnovers (54.6 points a game) and points against from turnovers (40.8 points per game) this season.
The last time Brisbane ranked No. 1 in both departments was its premiership year of 2002.
Will it be Take 2, 21 years on?
The challenge
Handling Collingwood’s pressure and the occasion.
Coach Chris Fagan would be well aware that the Magpies are going to bring red-hot pressure through hunting in numbers, chasing and tackling.
They are as good a team as there is at taking away the opposition’s time and space with the ball.
We’ll find out a lot about the composure of the Lions under this extreme heat.
Brisbane was put on the back foot in the first quarter of its preliminary final against Carlton last week after the Blues brought the heat in spades.
In a Grand Final at the MCG this week, the Lions can’t afford to crumble like that again in the early part of the game.
The concern
Collingwood’s ability to control the stoppages.
Brisbane has to minimise the Magpies’ clearance dominance, which was on display again in the preliminary final as Collingwood won clearances against GWS 44-26.
Jordan De Goey recorded 13 clearances alone in that game.
The Magpies have also capitalised on clearance wins in their two games against Brisbane this year.
They scored 50 points from stoppages against the Lions in round 4 and 68 points from stoppages when the sides met again in round 23.
It’s not all about the clearance differential, but rather what goes on the scoreboard.
How Brisbane defends clearance losses and how well it is able to score from clearances itself will have a huge bearing on the result of this Grand Final.
The theme
Get territory and generate forward-half intercepts.
The Lions are a team who like to play the game in their half of the ground.
They rank third in the competition for time in forward half this season.
After stoppage wins, their defence press up to squeeze the ground and cover any potential exits for the opposition if the ball is turned over when going forward.
This is something that must be mastered against Collingwood, given the Magpies’ ability to transition the ball from their defensive half and score from that area of the ground.
The Lions have ranked only seventh this season for generating forward half intercepts, but are the best team at scoring from those intercepts.
If they can win the ball back in their forward half, they will seriously challenge Collingwood.
X-factor
Zac Bailey.
While most of the attention will be on Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher, Bailey is an opportunistic forward who could bob up and kick a couple of important goals in what should be a tight Grand Final.
He has the versatility to play multiple roles, has an innate ability to find space and is a terrific front-and-centre player when it comes to crumbing marking contests.
Bailey has kicked 27 goals himself this year, but has also ranked as Brisbane’s third-highest assist player with 20 goal assists.
The star
Charlie Cameron.
Lachie Neale is a fire-starter in the midfield and Harris Andrews is a roadblock down back, but in a big game on a fast track at the MCG the game‘s separator could be Cameron.
The small forward is an incredibly tough match up with his lightning speed and goalkicking nous.
Cameron can also hurt you in multiple ways — whether it is around stoppage, winning ground ball or over the back running into an open goal.
Cameron kicked six goals from 11 score involvements against Collingwood in round 4 and four goals from just eight disposals against the Magpies in round 23.
If I were the Lions …
I’d send my best key defender — Harris Andrews — to Collingwood’s best key forward in Brody Mihocek.
Taking away a potential multiple goalkicker from the opposition in a Grand Final is imperative.
Josh Dunkley needs to impose his big body against the explosive and powerful De Goey, who was clearly the Magpies’ most influential midfielder in their preliminary final.
Dunkley must do his work early and engage De Goey with a combative, physical approach.
I’d give Charlie Cameron a brief to play multiple roles as a forward, to test Collingwood’s defensive system.
Allow Cameron to make judgement calls on where he positions himself in front of the ball, whether it is out of the goalsquare, across half-forward or even up on a wing.
It might enable Cameron to be freed up and also create confusion among the Magpies’ defenders about who is responsible for him at any given time.
Oscar McInerney needs to push forward, especially when he is up against Mason Cox in the ruck and look to hit the scoreboard.
However, he will also need to be aware of his defensive positioning and accountability if Cox or Darcy Cameron push forward, given both are capable of kicking goals themselves.
Mick’s tip
Collingwood by 7 points.
I’ve rated Collingwood as the best team in the competition for the majority of the year and the last time they faced the Lions in round 23 there was no Darcy Moore, Jordan De Goey, Bobby Hill or Nick Daicos. They are significant inclusions to a team that still managed to score 100 points that day.
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