Brisbane to select Levi Ashcroft in draft with ease as academy and father-son crackdown put on hold
As clubs attempted to protect their own turf with academy and father-son selections, Brisbane have been handed a discounted No. 1 pick. JON RALPH says this this could be the start of a dynasty.
Rival clubs protecting their own turf with academy and father-son selections might have just handed Brisbane the keys to a dynasty.
Now the big question ahead of the November national draft is whether they at least will force Brisbane to pay a remotely fair price for the brother of the Norm Smith Medallist and his first-round midfield mate.
As the Lions rampaged to the 2024 premiership it was apparent that unlike the brilliant 2001-2003 version there would be no list cliff this team was about to plummet over.
Will Ashcroft only turned 20 in May, Jaspa Fletcher and Darcy Wilmot are also yet to turn 21, Logan Morris is 19, ‘Kobra’ Kai Lohmann is 21.
Keidean Coleman will return from an ACL tear next year as a 25-year old, with Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Brandon Starcevich and Jack Payne also playing at 25 next year.
It is downright terrifying for rivals to think that Levi Aschroft will be added to this midfield, with academy teammate Sam Marshall fresh off a dominant best-afield display in the Coates League grand final.
If Ashcroft went at No.1 in the draft Brisbane would be the first team in the modern era to win the flag then actually draft the best overall kid in the land with their own pick.
Hawthorn won in 1988 then traded for the rights to No.1 pick Alex McDonald (St Kilda got Paul Harding, Peter Russo and Robert Handley), while West Coast won in 1992 and traded for the No.1 pick Drew Banfield (Sydney got Tony Begovich and Scott Watters)
It is absolutely fair that Brisbane secures the same father-son rights as rival clubs – after all Collingwood will get Mick McGuane’s son Tom in the 2025 draft.
And the Lions deserve to take academy prospects like Marshall as they grow the game in the north.
It is about paying a fairer price.
But clubs that nearly rioted when the Suns picked up Jed Walter (pick 3), Ethan Read (pick 9), Jake Rogers (pick 12) and Will Graham (pick 26) last year laid down their weapons instead of lobbying for instant change to the 2024 bidding system.
Why?
They backed self interest to secure cheaper rates for their own father-sons like Lucas and Ben Camporeale and to preserve draft picks accumulated in 2023 trades.
Carlton and Richmond both wanted to preserve the points value of late picks that the AFL was threatening to scrap.
The Blues accumulated multiple late 2024 picks after trading Paddy Dow last off-season.
So in the end after strong club lobbying the AFL not only allowed non-northern states clubs access to talent like Essendon’s NGA player Isaac Kako, they delayed changes to the bidding system to 2025.
It means instead of the Lions having to actually find a ridiculous amount of points for Ashcroft and Marshall, they get 20 per cent discounts on bids and can take them with a collection of back-end picks.
Brisbane has the AFL’s second-worst draft hand behind Collingwod – 18, 56 and 69 – but will find a way to get both players.
Those three picks are only worth 1228 draft points.
If the new changes had come in this year and Ashcroft went at pick 1 and Marshall pick 15, Brisbane might have had to trade out a pair of elite players to match those bids.
Now having allowed the Lions a free ride, clubs might go easy on them again.
In an even draft there is every likelihood Levi Ashcroft might slip down in the top 10 because clubs won’t feel compelled to match a bid when there is a player of similar quality available.
But Richmond should bid on Ashcroft at pick one (forcing their rivals to find 2400 draft points) to ensure it dilutes Brisbane’s draft hand in a national draft where Richmond could have seven or eight picks.
If so the Lions might even have to force Dev Robertson out or trade in their future first-round pick.
The Tigers love bidding on Brisbane academy players.
They bid on Eric Hipwood in 2024 (the Lions matched), Connor McFadyen in 2018 (the Lions matched), Noah Cumberland and Will Martyn in 2019 (the Lions didn’t match), and recruited Mabior Chol and Samson Ryan after they were Brisbane academy players.
Brisbane will likely get Marshall for a gift.
Some clubs love Marshall but others believe he could drift outside the top 30 given he’s a hardworking ball magnet of which there are plenty in this draft.
If you don’t dilute a club’s draft hand when you have the chance it can come back to bite you on the butt.
Gold Coast was able to turn its No.4 draft pick last year into at least five first-round selections – the Dogs gave up 10, 17 and a future first-rounder and the Suns kept on-trading those picks to maximise its draft hand.
But this year having taken those four academy kids and still kept an incredible 2024 draft hand (6, 12, 20, 26, 38, 46) the Suns have enough draft capital to pillage Richmond (Daniel Rioli) and Collingwood (John Noble).
Well played Gold Coast, after it lost its co-captains Tom Lynch and Steven May as well as a million quality kids like Charlie Dixon, Jack Martin, Dion Prestia, Josh Caddy and Jack Scrimshaw.
But the choices made by rival clubs not to make them pay the absolute top price for those academy picks has left them as sitting ducks 12 months on.
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