Big clashes unpacked: How Round 18 will mould the shape of AFL finals
The Western Bulldogs have been ‘bullies’ this year, and thumping struggling sides is covering a fatal flaw. Mick McGuane unpacks what needs to change ahead of a week which will shape finals.
Four games in round 18 this weekend will have huge implications on September as top-nine teams face off.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane gives his take on the big games and tells us who he thinks will win — and why.
GOLD COAST V COLLINGWOOD
There’s a cloud hanging over the availability of a number of Collingwood players after illness swept through the club.
But there’s also a bigger cloud over Gold Coast and whether or not these Suns are the real deal.
Over the past six weeks, Damien Hardwick’s side has fallen short in matches against fellow finals contenders Greater Western Sydney, Geelong and Fremantle.
The Magpies, meanwhile, have taken some scalps during an eight-match winning streak which they will back themselves to extend.
The Suns will want this to be a stoppage game, given their strength around contest.
If ruckman Jarrod Witts can get the better of Darcy Cameron and give first use to the likes of Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and Touk Miller, the Suns can score.
Gold Coast ranks No. 1 for scores from stoppages over the past six weeks, which is a clear strength.
That said, Collingwood is the second-best side at restricting opposition scores from stoppages this season.
Ned Long and Scott Pendlebury are both capable of going to powerful Gold Coast midfielder Matt Rowell and limiting his influence around contest and clearance.
They will just have to make sure that any attention placed on Rowell does not allow Anderson to get free, because of his decision making and he uses the ball so well.
On the flip side, can the Suns keep Nick Daicos under control?
Touk Miller is a diligent defensively-minded midfielder, but doesn’t have the burst speed of Daicos.
If Collingwood can control the stoppages, it will deliver territory which will allow the Magpies’ defenders to roll up and make the ground small.
The Collingwood forwards can then bring the heat — especially around Suns halfback rebounders Daniel Rioli and John Noble — to help give them the turnover game they desire.
Collingwood ranks No. 2 for scores from turnovers differential in the past six weeks, courtesy of slick, efficient ball movement and a diverse and dangerous forward line led by Jamie Elliott.
Elliott (41 goals) ranks fourth on the Coleman Medal leaderboard, just behind Gold Coast’s Ben King (42 goals) who is equal-second on that table.
However, King will have his work cut out this week against Darcy Moore and co.
The Magpies are the No. 1 defensive team in the competition, conceding an average of just 67.8 points per game.
Collingwood is also No. 1 for opposition scores per inside-50 against over the past six weeks, is a highly desirable defensive profile.
Mick’s Tip: Collingwood 18 points
WESTERN BULLDOGS V ADELAIDE
The Western Bulldogs are bullies.
They have beaten up on struggling sides this season, but are yet to prove themselves against finals contenders.
Against the top-nine sides, the Bulldogs have gone 1-6, with that sole win coming by 32 points against GWS in round 7.
That’s a problem – and it stems back to their defence.
Overall, the Bulldogs are conceding an average of 80.5 points per game this season – ranked ninth.
But in those seven games against the top-nine, they have coughed up an average of 98 points per game.
You have to question some of Luke Beveridge’s defensive decisions, including overlooking Liam Jones for senior selection since round 6.
Rory Lobb and James O’Donnell have been left to shoulder the load in an undersized defence, which will be up against it this week against the likes of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty, Taylor Walker.
Josh Rachele (knee) is a massive loss, but the in-form Izak Rankine is still there to provide a bit of magic.
Expect Ben Keays to get a defensive forward job on Bailey Dale, who is so important for the Bulldogs with his run and carry and ball use from the back half.
Pressure – not just inside-50 but around the ground – will be key for the Crows, because if they bring sub-par pressure the Bulldogs will gain much needed territory. This will not only will help the Bulldogs defence, but will offer up serious challenges to the Crows defenders due to their strong midfield-forward connection.
If I was Beveridge, I’d be strongly encouraging Tim English to use his athleticism and challenge Riley O’Brien by pushing forward.
If English can snag a couple of goals, it could make all the difference.
Mark Keane has a big job ahead on Sam Darcy, while Jordon Butts will be earmarked for Aaron Naughton.
The Bulldogs have been the No. 1 scoring team in the competition this season, averaging 107.3 points.
However, the Crows have found a much better balance in their game and have won me over with their defensive profile.
Matthew Nicks’ side ranks No. 2 defensively behind Collingwood, conceding just 70.9 points per game.
The midfield battle will also be a big watch.
Sam Berry could be used in a run-with role on Marcus Bontempelli or Tom Liberatore, or Nicks might just leave Jordan Dawson to match up on Bontempelli and the two can go their separate ways post-stoppage.
Adelaide can’t afford to lose stoppages heavily and purely rely on back-to-front ball movement to win this game.
If the Crows can match the Dogs in the middle of the ground and get effective entries going inside forward 50 they can cause an upset and go one step further and validate they are a legitimate top-eight team.
Tip: Adelaide by 6 points
GWS V GEELONG
The Cats lost last time these sides met at GMHBA Stadium in round 9, but they would have learnt plenty from that contest.
Conversion cost Chris Scott’s side as they booted 14.17 (101) to GWS’ 16.9 (105), but there were also some other mistakes made.
Chris Scott got a touch too tricky by half in that clash, starting Jeremy Cameron in the centre square and Bailey Smith on the wing.
The Cats also didn’t squeeze the ground aggressively enough from a defensive standpoint and consequently got burnt by Jesse Hogan’s brilliance forward as he kicked seven goals for the Giants.
When Geelong wins clearance this time, its defenders must push up and make the ground small as soon as the ball goes inside 50.
You have to stop the bounce of Lachie Ash and Lachie Whitfield off the GWS halfback line, followed by the run and carry of Finn Callaghan through the midfield.
The Giants forwards will look to sprint back towards their own goal at speed to create pockets of space between the arcs for these elite ball carriers to run into.
The forward pressure applied by the Cats small forwards – including Brad Close, Tyson Stengle, Gryan Miers and Shaun Mannagh – will also be important in restricting that impressive counter-attack.
The Cats team defence was dismantled last time they played, and it all started with the time and space they allowed the Giants run and carry ball users. In fact the Giants scored an astonishing 9 goals and 2 behinds from chains out of the defensive half of the ground. That just doesn’t happen to Geelong at GMHBA.
Over the past six weeks, the Giants rank No. 2 for points from defensive half chains.
Through the midfield, expect Geelong to go back to what works and start Bailey Smith and Max Holmes onball, along with Tom Atkins who should get an accountable role on Tom Green.
Oisin Mullin could also be used as a tagger on Callaghan at times if he is doing too much damage.
The Giants will regain Whitfield from concussion for his 250th game, while Hogan (foot) is also expected to return this week in a big boost for the attack.
But key defender Jack Buckley (foot) still has to prove his fitness after being subbed out of last week’s win over West Coast with a ligament sprain.
Buckley would be earmarked for Patrick Dangerfield if he does play, but the Giants will be left thin down back if he misses.
Connor Idun has to play on Jeremy Cameron, who not only leads the Coleman Medal race with 52 goals but also ranks fourth in the AFL for score involvements.
He’ll get up and out of the forward 50 and could prove a matchwinner given who is missing for the Giants.
Tip: Geelong by 21 points
FREMANTLE V HAWTHORN
The heat has been back on the Dockers since their loss to Sydney last Sunday.
But Justin Longmuir’s side had won six games in a row before that and are more than capable of immediately bouncing back as they return to Perth Stadium where they have gone 7-2 this season.
The Dockers got beat up around stoppages by the Swans, so their midfield group must roll up their sleeves and get to work this week.
On-ballers Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw and rucks Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson need to approach this game as a team within a team and bring real hardness and effort from the first bounce after the disappointment of last week.
Fremantle can’t allow Hawthorn to dominate clearances, because Jai Newcombe, James Worpel and Conor Nash can hurt you.
Over the past six weeks, the Hawks rank No. 3 in the competition from points from clearances differential.
It wasn’t just last week where the Dockers struggled to win the clearance battle.
It has been a recent trend and there could be a temptation to saturate stoppage by rolling up a half-forward up.
But Longmuir must keep six forwards at home if the Dockers are to win.
Rolling up an extra number to stoppage only to dump kick straight to one of the Hawthorn interceptors in James Sicily, Tom Barrass and Josh Battle won’t get you very far.
As much as that trio can win the ball back given the opportunity, the Hawks defence haven’t been at their best lately.
Over the past six weeks, Sam Mitchell’s side has ranked No. 13 for opposition scores per inside 50 against and No. 18 for stopping opposition defensive midfield to inside-50 ball movement.
Because of that, it’s critical that the Dockers play at speed to try and catch their opponent’s off-guard.
Sicily has been struggling to cover the ground, Barrass is not a great runner and some of the Hawthorn rebounding defenders don’t run as hard back as they do with the ball.
So if Fremantle can play at speed, especially after they generate a turnover, there should be plenty of opportunities for them to find space in an open forward line and hit the scoreboard.
The forward trio of Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss – plus a little bit of resting ruckman Jackson – must stand up and provide a contest.
But the Dockers’ smalls loom as most dangerous.
I’m expecting a huge game from Shai Bolton, who doesn’t have an obvious match up.
It wouldn’t surprise me if he finished with three or four goals and justify his recruitment into Dockers colours at the start of this season.
Tip: Fremantle by 11 points
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