AFL predicted ladder: Who misses out and who will play who in week one of the finals

How careful do the Bulldogs need to be from here? And can Sydney pull off the improbable? We unpack every game on the run to the finals and who will play who come September.

Fewer teams remain in the fight than what we’ve grown used to, but there are still crucial games spread across the last six rounds which will shape the finals equation.

There’s a four-way battle emerging to keep clear of ninth spot – which games does your team need to win to avoid a heart-in-mouth round 24? See our prediction below.

DO YOUR OWN PREDICTED LADDER, THEN SCROLL DOWN TO SEE OURS

1. COLLINGWOOD

Played: 17, Won: 14, Lost: 3, Percentage: 136

It’s quite extraordinary that the Pies almost came through their mid-season slump period undefeated.

That is assuming the illness sweeping through the group has eased off and they are ready to click into gear ahead of a four-match stretch on home turf at the MCG where they can secure the minor premiership.

At least two wins against Fremantle, Brisbane, Hawthorn and Adelaide will be needed to get it done.

Josh Daicos was a revelation through the middle in the final term against Gold Coast last week – is he the one to lead the Pies out of their mid-season rut? Picture: Getty Images

2. BRISBANE

Played: 17, Won: 12, Lost: 4, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 117

The Lions need to win every game at home and pinch one on the road to be sure of a top-four spot, but their sights will be set on a qualifying final at the Gabba after winning their last three on the trot.

Round 20 will present the most important Q Clash in competition history, while meeting Fremantle off the back of a gruelling four-game block will be a demanding interstate trip for the reigning premiers.

Eyes will be glued to the Saturday night clash against Collingwood in round 21, which could be a Grand Final preview.

Brisbane second-year forward Logan Morris has been in outstanding form to offset the impact of Joe Daniher’s retirement. Picture: Michael Willson / Getty Images

3. ADELAIDE

Played: 17, Won: 12, Lost: 5, Percentage: 136

The core of this Adelaide side has not played finals football, but if the Crows continue on their current trajectory they are about to earn more than just a taste of it.

A top-two finish is a genuine possibility now after a scintillating display against the Western Bulldogs, and the loss of key defender Jordon Butts (collapsed lung) can be covered against Gold Coast and Port Adelaide by Nick Murray, who has played the last four games in the SANFL after a knee injury at the end of April.

Beating two of the Suns, Hawks and Magpies could set up an Adelaide Oval qualifying final for a side which has not featured in September since the 2017 decider.

But they can’t take the Showdown for granted – the Power play on emotion, and there’ll be plenty of it around during Ken Hinkley’s final lap.

4. GEELONG

Played: 17, Won: 11, Lost: 6, Percentage: 128

Geelong spends its last six games on a tour of the bottom nine, but there are still obstacles to a top-four finish.

The Power shocked them at Kardinia Park last year, while Docklands, where they will meet North Melbourne in round 20, has not been a happy hunting ground in the last couple of years.

I received a few strongly-worded emails from Cats fans when the Roos were projected as winners for this clash a fortnight ago – with Tristan Xerri likely to miss, I am now prepared to formally backflip on my forecast.

Will Sydney have enough to play for in round 23 to be a threat at the SCG? If the Cats clinch that one and win all six games, they can finish top two.

5. GOLD COAST

Played: 16, Won: 11, Lost: 5, Percentage: 122

They made a strong start to “Big Boy Month”, but our Large Adult Suns have two tough assignments ahead where they will likely be without the brilliant Touk Miller due to a hamstring strain.

The tall forward trio of Ben King, Jed Walter and Ethan Read has been under intense scrutiny this winter, but their performance against the Magpies was a big tick.

There’s enough firepower there to win at least five of the last seven games – and home clashes against Richmond and Essendon will be a great chance to boost percentage in the push for a top-four spot.

That’s right – knock off another top-nine side in the next month and Gold Coast could make its finals debut with a double chance.

It’s back on for young and old in Tasmania this week – the Hawks badly need to snap their losing streak against the Power to stay in control of their finals fate. Picture: Michael Klein

6. HAWTHORN

Played: 17, Won: 11, Lost: 6, Percentage: 117

Top-four hopes are fading for the side that hasn’t found a rhythm like the “Hollywood Hawks” of last year.

There’s still plenty of upside given the room for improvement from All-Australian duo James Sicily and Dylan Moore, while Will Day’s return is meant to be just around the corner.

The Hawks are still tinkering with their best tall forward combination though, so will they be ready to hit their straps for the crucial games against Adelaide and Collingwood in rounds 21 and 22?

A trip to their Launceston fortress to face Port Adelaide this week needs to be where the Hawks find their mojo, because now they’re firmly in the nervous four-way fight to avoid ninth spot.

7. GWS GIANTS

Played: 17, Won: 11, Lost: 6, Percentage: 113

The win over Geelong on Saturday has done wonders for the Giants, who had not been overly convincing on their home deck.

They must beat Sydney at ENGIE in round 20 to keep their finals fate in their own hands, while a win on the road over the Bulldogs or Suns could get them a game clear of the peloton.

Sam Taylor could return as soon as this week which would be a huge boost, while speedster Brent Daniels can take the Giants up a notch as well if he gets back from his adductor tendon injury.

8. FREMANTLE

Played: 17, Won: 11, Lost: 6, Percentage: 109

The Dockers have a chance this week to travel east, give Collingwood a proper heave-ho at the MCG and let everyone know they are ready to be genuine flag contenders.

History says they will not do this, however.

It means Justin Longmuir’s team will need to be flawless at home and take care of their 2024 bogey side Port Adelaide on the road to put themselves in the box seat for finals qualification.

The round 24 clash at Marvel Stadium against the Western Bulldogs could be a straight elimination final – a situation the Dockers would prefer to avoid given they have lost their last two at the venue by more than 10 goals.

The Bulldogs were left frustrated and ‘embarassed’ as they went down to another contender – but their percentage and run home leaves plenty of promise. Picture: Getty Images

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Played: 17, Won: 10, Lost: 7, Percentage: 130

High percentage will help, but the Bulldogs still must find a way to knock off two top-nine sides to be sure of September action.

A win at the Gabba on Friday night would reverberate around the competition and set the Dogs up for a dream run home with their last five games in Melbourne.

But they don’t have much time to fix the defensive woes which continued to plague them against the Crows, and Luke Beveridge has to quickly decide who he is sticking with from arguably the weakest bottom six of the contenders.

The projection leaves them sixth with a round 24 win over the Dockers – but with finals heartbreak if they go down.

10. SYDNEY SWANS

Played: 17, Won: 8, Lost: 9, Percentage: 94

The in-form Swans could go 5-1 from here but still find themselves playing in a dead rubber over in Perth against West Coast.

They might be able to knock over Geelong at the SCG, but ultimately they look destined to regret games that went begging against Brisbane (round 1), Port Adelaide (round 6) and Essendon (round 9) which could have given them enough runs on the board to launch a finals tilt.

‘What mate?’: On our predicted ladder the Swans finish with a 12-11 record but three games out of the top eight. Picture: Mark Stewart

11. PORT ADELAIDE

Played: 17, Won: 8, Lost: 9, Percentage: 90

Port Adelaide has only had one win handed to them from here, but they’ve arguably been the most unpredictable side all season and loom as a danger to the four finals contenders they meet in the run home.

The Power will be intent on continuing their winning run against Hawthorn in Tassie this week, and after that have a chance to spoil Adelaide’s top-two chances with a win in Ken Hinkley’s final Showdown.

Fremantle and Gold Coast come to the Adelaide Oval in the final three weeks of the season as well – the Power will relish the chance to throw a few curveballs into the finals equation as they send off their coach.

12. CARLTON

Played: 17, Won: 6, Lost: 11, Percentage: 94

The Blues have already lost four on the trot – that could turn into nine with a tough run to come, and imagine the pressure that would pile onto Michael Voss and Carlton’s leaders.

Charlie Curnow and Patrick Cripps need to ignite their side against Melbourne at the MCG on Saturday night, or else the Blues might be in for a miserable slide down to 14th on the ladder.

13. MELBOURNE

Played: 17, Won: 6, Lost: 11, Percentage: 90

The furthest the Demons have to travel in the last six rounds is to Docklands, and if they get on a roll in the run home they will also wonder what could have been.

Melbourne has won its last three at the MCG against the Western Bulldogs, and that round 22 clash is the first of three chances to cause some damage to the contenders.

Carlton is in disarray and they should be able to cash in against the Blues on Saturday night – otherwise serious questions will again be prompted about Simon Goodwin’s tenure as they limp through to the end of the season and Paul Guerra’s September 8 start date as new club boss.

14. ESSENDON

Played: 16, Won: 6, Lost: 10, Percentage: 77

It’s a long six weeks ahead for Bombers fans. Picture: Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos/via Getty Images.

Tough reading for Bombers fans – the scale of their injury crisis is now so vast that it is difficult to see another win in the final six games.

That would mean a 12-match losing streak to wind up a nightmare season that started off with quite a lot of promise.

Expect some eyebrow-raising selection calls as Brad Scott examines who he wants to retain in 2026 or let go from a playing list that has had to swell to 47 due to long-term injuries.

15. ST KILDA

Played: 17, Won: 5, Lost: 12, Percentage: 86

The Saints’ run starts to open up from here with three very winnable games at Docklands and an MCG clash against the Tigers.

They have had their chances during this five-game losing streak, and are likely to be feeling pretty flat when they travel down the highway to Geelong this week.

But with careers under Ross Lyon on the line, expect them to finish fiercely in a similar manner to what they did last season.

16. NORTH MELBOURNE

Played: 17, Won: 4, Lost: 12, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 77

It could get ugly for the Kangaroos in the run home, who traded away their first-round pick in the coming draft probably without expecting to still be stuck in the bottom four.

There are three games at Marvel against Geelong, St Kilda and Adelaide where they will go their hardest – but Tristan Xerri might be suspended for the first two of those clashes, and in their current state can they win without his brute force in the middle?

Taj Hotton’s debut (right) and a tough win over Essendon put smiles on the faces of Richmond supporters. Can they claim any other little victories in the run home? Picture: Getty Images

17. RICHMOND

Played: 17, Won: 4, Lost: 13, Percentage: 64

The Tigers have exceeded expectations at most turns in the first year of their scorched-earth rebuild, but it’s difficult to see them mustering enough force to claim another win from here.

Noah Balta’s court-enforced curfew ends after this week’s clash against the Eagles – after that, Adem Yze might have the luxury of some backline continuity, which he hasn’t had all season.

It would be as good as a win to the Richmond faithful if Josh Gibcus kept stringing together games in the VFL – perhaps even with a view to playing two or three senior games to finish the season.

18. WEST COAST

Played: 17, Won: 1, Lost: 16, Percentage: 64

Four more home games remain for the inexperienced, injury-ravaged Eagles side to give their supporters something to look forward to next season.

They will be desperate to get stuck into Richmond on Saturday night for a second win this season, but it would take a monumental upset for them to claim another.