AFL Grand Final 2023 Collingwood v Brisbane: The history, friendships and big concerns
Collingwood will have to do what no other team has done in history to win the flag on Saturday – and that’s not the only worry. Sam Landsberger looks ahead to the big dance.
Rewind 15 months and Lachie Neale predicted a kid called Keidean Coleman would win multiple All-Australian blazers.
Coleman was 22 and had just played his 33rd AFL game.
Forget All-Australian honours … right now Collingwood would be hoping he is not about to give the Norm Smith Medal a shake.
They call him “Kiddy” Coleman.
Perhaps they should call him ‘Corridor’ Coleman, because this kid hits the middle more than Brian Lara.
The scorching kick to Callum Ah Chee to set up a second-quarter goal would have given Collingwood cold chills.
Coleman recorded career-highs for intercepts (11) and intercept marks (six) against Carlton.
But his impact is not encapsulated by the stats sheet.
Coleman’s lethal left foot sets up Brisbane’s ball movement and the decision to move on from veterans Daniel Rich and Jack Gunston mid-season has coincided with the Lions’ charge to the grand final.
They have won 10 of their past 12 games and one of those losses was by a single point.
This week’s throwbacks to 2002-03, when the Lions beat the Magpies in back-to-back grand finals to secure their premiership three-peat, are obvious.
It is triple-premiership Lions Craig McRae and Justin Leppitsch versus Brisbane.
McRae is coach of Collingwood and Leppitsch is his right-hand man.
But there are also many modern links between these clubs.
Leppitsch is close mates with Brisbane football boss Danny Daly.
They speak regularly, but that friendship might be tested this week.
Brisbane halfback Darcy Wilmot wears No. 44 because his late father, Grant Wilmot, wore No. 44 in five games for Collingwood in 1980.
Jack Crisp – the ‘streak knives’ in the trade that delivered Dayne Beams to Brisbane and Jordan De Goey to Collingwood – played 18 games for the Lions from 2012-14.
Dan McStay left the Lions for the Pies last year, only to bust his medial ligament on Friday night.
Medicos suspected a grade 1 or 2 tear would have allowed McStay to line up in the game of his lifetime.
But scans showed a grade 3 tear and that ended his premiership hopes.
Remarkably, the Magpies have won through to the grand final despite scoring just 118 points in September.
McStay has kicked four out of Collingwood’s 17 goals in those finals wins.
Does he deserve a premiership medallion if Collingwood wins the flag?
He won’t get one, but you can bank on it being debated.
The McStay blow will force a structural change for the Pies and their most suitable replacement, Ash Johnson, has not played since breaking his arm in the VFL finals.
The grand final fitness stories are already in full swing.
McStay is McGone while Jack Payne (ankle) and Taylor Adams (hamstring) are, as they say, racing the clock.
Fagan should sleep easier even if Payne – who is healing in a hyperbaric chamber – does not play.
Darcy Gardiner had played two games for the year and Charlie Curnow had won two-straight Coleman Medals.
But Gardiner kept Curnow to one goal, one mark inside 50 and the lanky Lion had 11 spoils on Saturday.
The Magpies have another slice of history against them after Friday night’s one-point heart-stopping win.
No club in VFL-AFL history has won a preliminary final by one point and gone on to win the premiership.
Those preliminary final parties have always ended with heavy defeats.
The previous examples were Sydney in 2022 (lost the grand final by 81 points), Carlton in 1999 (lost the grand final by 35), Sydney in 1996 (lost the grand final by 43) and North Melbourne in 1976 (lost by 30).
The Lions will fly to Melbourne on Thursday and have their captain’s run at the MCG on Friday.
It is understood the AFL offered the ’G to both clubs, but the Pies would prefer to train for the final time at their home base.
The Lions completed their perfect home record in 2023 and they have now won 32 of their past 35 games at the Gabba.
Some will spruik their supposed MCG hoodoo this week (they are 1-14 from their past 15 games at the ‘G).
But it is a false narrative.
The Lions led Melbourne by 26 points in the final quarter this year on the back of some blitzing ball movement.
Make no mistake, they can play at this ground. They also kicked the first six goals against Richmond last year and then eliminated the Demons in a semi-final.
The more genuine concern, particularly on the back of Saturday, is the Collingwood ambush.
The Magpies led the Giants by 13 points after 19 minutes on Friday night and led the Dees by 27 points six minutes into the second quarter of the qualifying final.
After last week’s bye the Lions hit the snooze button for 30 minutes against Carlton.
They were ambushed on their home deck.
Lachie Neale described it as a “punch in the face” and the Blues’ five-goal burst would’ve broken Brisbane in previous years.
They wobbled.
But after four consecutive seasons of September learnings the Lions stayed on their feet and then landed blow after blow.
They won 16 of the final 22 clearances in the first half – but would not want to find themselves in another hole next week.
There would be no coming back against Collingwood’s suffocating defence.
Coach Chris Fagan, 62, will become the oldest grand final coach in history and join John Worrall (Carlton 1902-09, Essendon 1911-20) as the only grand final coach who never played at VFL-AFL level.
Fagan walks a lot of kilometres on gameday and he chalked up 15 or 16 before Saturday’s 5.15pm bounce.
It’s also been a joyous week for AFL birthdays.
Adem Yze turned 46 on Thursday and won the Richmond coaching job, Craig McRae turned 50 on Friday and won a preliminary final and Zac Bailey turned 24 on Saturday and unwrapped the same present as McRae.
But the main prize awaits. Dayne Zorko will be hoping to celebrate a milestone rather than a birthday with a win when he plays game No. 250 next week.
And for neutral supporters, what has been a gripping finals series could become one of the greatest of all time with a grand final to remember.
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