AFL Finals Melbourne v Brisbane: Deep dive into how the Lions stunned the Dees to bust a few longstanding myths
The Demons’ straight-sets exit was foreshadowed by months of malaise. And there was a glaring issue that proved costly.
The last time Brisbane played Melbourne in a big game — last year’s qualifying final — the Lions lacked mental strength.
Key man Daniel McStay was substituted out with concussion in the opening minutes and the Brisbane boys were rocked.
So coach Chris Fagan spent the summer focussed on instilling a harder edge to deal with such adversity. Semi-final star Jarrod Berry revealed mid-season this year‘s mentality was to “pound the rock”.
This finals series the Lions lost ruckman Oscar McInerney moments into an elimination final and Joe Daniher moments before a semi-final.
Did they roll over? No way. Instead they upset Richmond at the Gabba and ambushed Melbourne at the MCG, eliminating the last two AFL premiers against the odds.
They graduated from their September schooling in flying colours.
Lachie Neale earned a high distinction against the Tigers and Berry‘s second half against Clayton Oliver on Friday night was graded similarly.
Last year there was no second half for Berry in the semi-final. He was concussed.
“We talk about having a growth mindset and that everything that happens to us there's a reason for it, and as long as you learn from it and make progress then all those mistakes are OK,” Fagan said on Friday night.
Throw in Fagan‘s finals monkey, the seven-year MCG hoodoo and the belief that Brisbane was Melbourne’s bunnies and it has been a myth-busting fortnight.
It‘s also been the best eight quarters for the Lions since the Leigh Matthews golden era early this century.
Richmond, too, has morphed finals failure into fortune. In 2018, the Tigers‘ quest to go back-to-back ran out of gas.
Supporters might fancifully believe that Mason Cox denied the Tigers four-straight premierships with his 2018 preliminary final heroics.
But that's simply not the case.
The Tigers won their pair of pre-season games in 2018 by a combined 157 points and entered that preliminary final blockbuster 19-4.
It looked like they were rolling. In reality, they were staggering. They had run out of fuel in August and so they recalibrated their program to peak at the pointy end, which delivered back-to-back flags in 2019-2020.
The learnings from 2018 unlocked back-to-back flags. Brisbane‘s heartache has helped hurtle it into a preliminary final against Geelong on Friday night.
Melbourne, take note. The Demons must enroll in their own summer school because their straight-sets exit was foreshadowed by months of malaise.
The third quarter is known as the premiership quarter, but the fourth quarter became Melbourne’s flag stanza - because often it raised the white one.
From round 11 the Demons were outscored by 110 points in last quarters, ranked ahead of only West Coast and North Melbourne.
They finished the season 6-8, reflective of an average team.
In the home-and-away season, the Demons led Fremantle by 30 points and lost by 38, led Sydney by 26 and lost by 12, led Collingwood by 22 and lost by 26, led Western Bulldogs by 27 and lost by 10 and led Collingwood by 23 and lost by seven.
So, what happened in the finals? More of the same.
The Demons led the Swans by 16 points before losing by 22 in the qualifying final and then led the Lions by 28 points only to lose by 13 in the semi-final.
Lights out.
They went goalless in the final quarter against Sydney while the Lions booted eight of their 14 goals in red-time at the MCG.
As the quarters dragged on, the Demons’ energy diminished.
Luke Jackson, playing probably his last game for Melbourne, did not touch the ball in the final quarter.
Christian Salem had just three disposals in the second half while Jarrod Berry’s 22 towered over Clayton Oliver’s nine beyond halftime.
Berry texted Fagan last weekend requesting the Oliver role and got his wish at halftime, locking his magnet in the midfield for Friday night.
Last year, the Demons conceded 90 points just once, against Adelaide. This year it happened six times, including in both finals, and the Dees went 0-6.
Contrast that to last season, when the Demons outscored opponents by a mammoth 201 points in final quarters.
That included converting a 19-point deficit in the ‘premiership quarter’ into a rollicking Grand Final party against the Western Bulldogs.
This year's symptoms are clear. They can’t run out games. It’s not an encore to the Entrecote fight, it is a lack of fight when in the spotlight.
The diagnosis is more challenging.
Was the departure of high-performance boss Darren Burgess colossus?
Or was taking too many banged-up stars into September the problem? Perhaps not, given coach Simon Goodwin said his wounded warriors “trained fully” last week.
“Our fadeouts have been a trend. It wasn't because injured players were out there,” Goodwin said.
So, what was the reason?
“It's a whole range of things,” Goodwin said.
“Being able to execute your basics for longer, an ability to deal with pressure when you're under pressure as a team.
“Our expectation ... has risen significantly, and that's something you’ve got to deal with. It’s a different type of thing to experience.
“When the game is in the balance and a team is coming at you, and the expectation‘s high things aren’t going to be perfect.
“So we've got to have a look at all things within our program, whether it be physical, mental, our method, to be able to execute those things for longer.
“This is a whole club thing.”
Goodwin suggested it was hard going from the hunter to the hunted and, boy, did Brisbane hunt after halftime.
The Demons manufactured 29 shots for the night, eight more than Brisbane, but were inefficient.
So when the Lions remained in the game they could smell blood.
“Melbourne‘s second halves this year have not always been the best. We were aware of that and so we gave ourselves a chance at halftime and then we played a brilliant second half,” Fagan said.
But Geelong is a different beast. A fitter beast.
Similar to the Demons of 2021, the Cats have outscored opponents by 150 points in fourth quarters this season.
The next-best, Gold Coast, is miles back ... in the black by ‘just’ 71 points. They will be hot favourites but that won’t worry Brisbane.
“There were a few ‘experts’ saying by three quarter-time Melbourne can put Petracca and Oliver and Max Gawn in then tracksuits and sit them on the bench,” Lions boss Greg Swann said on 3AW on Saturday.
“So when you hear that sort of stuff it's pretty good motivation.”
Fagan declared the round 4 meeting at GMHBA Stadium largely irrelevant because it was five months ago. He was right.
Mitch Robinson, Jarryd Lyons, Nakia Cockatoo, Brandan Parfitt, Quinton Narkle and Luke Dahlhaus are just some of the names who played in April but are no longer in the teams.
Marcus Adams played on Tom Hawkins that night. That won't happen at the MCG, given Adams is out for the season.
Tom Atkins played on Charlie Cameron that night. That won't happen, given Atkins has advanced into the Cats’ regenerated midfield.
Darcy Gardiner played on All-Australian Tyson Stengle that night. That is unlikely to happen, given Brandon Starcevich has clamped Shai Bolton and Kozzie Pickett this September.
Starcevich is a super stopper who Fagan must love coaching.
“He’s got great discipline, he studies his opponents really closely and he takes great pride in getting those jobs done,” Fagan said.
“Shai got away pretty well last week and Kozzie was up and about early tonight, but ‘Starce’ was able to keep it together mentally and get the job done really well in the second half of both those games.
“We rate him really highly. He's a quiet man, but he’s got a lot of leadership inside of him and his teammates really respect him.”
Starcevich‘s list of scalps includes some of the game’s most breathtaking stars.
How on earth does he do it?
“It's not easy sometimes, you do get beaten,” the 23-year-old told News Corp.
“It's just trying to limit their influence and take them to places they don’t want to be and make it hard for their timing at the drop of the ball.
“It's those little things and those milliseconds that help you in the end.
“(Pickett) got off the chain in the first quarter and kicked a couple of rippers, but in the second half (I) limited his influence when he could‘ve got the crowd going at times. It’s a challenge preparing for those guys every week, but I love it.
“Sometimes you've done everything you can, it’s just a good player who does freakish things. “You always think about what you could’ve done, but at the end of the day he’s a good player and he’s going to do those things every now and then.”
“Everyone‘s written us off and to come out playing with that mentality with nothing to lose. I’m speechless, it’s unreal.”
The millisecond man and his mentally tough mates, who will welcome back Oscar McInerney and a fresh Joe Daniher.
As Starcevich spoke Cameron Rayner‘s rowdy father, John, burst into Brisbane’s rooms screaming: “Get a dog up ya!”
Calm down, Johnny. These underdogs reckon there might just be two more to go.
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