AFL Draft 2023: Indicative draft order after Round 23, how the top 10 could play out
West Coast’s win over the Bulldogs certainly threw expectations for the 2023 draft into a tailspin, but could the Eagles still finish with the first pick? Here’s how it could play out.
North Melbourne is one loss away from securing Harley Reid with the prized No.1 pick as the Kangaroos eye another enviable draft haul this year.
West Coast’s shock win over the Western Bulldogs on Sunday left the Kangaroos in last place on the ladder ahead of a final-round clash against the Gold Coast Suns in Hobart on Saturday.
If North Melbourne is unable to overcome the Suns, it could end up with the first two picks in the draft depending on what happens with the Ben McKay compensation if he leaves as a free agent.
North Melbourne list manager Brady Rawlings said earlier this month that the first four players on the club’s draft board were “pretty well set in order”, with Reid widely expected to be No.1.
The versatile 185cm talent returned to Coates Talent League side the Bendigo Pioneers on the weekend and kicked two goals in a 48-point loss to Greater Western Victoria Rebels.
Reid had starred while playing for Essendon’s VFL side two weeks earlier, logging 24 disposals and six clearances.
Gold Coast Suns Academy member Jed Walter is considered to be the second-best talent in the draft and could attract a bid from the Kangaroos at pick 2, which the Suns would match.
Ball-winning Tasmanian midfielder Colby McKercher would then be firmly in the frame for North Melbourne’s second pick – which would then be pick 3 – as an exciting talent who has been likened to Essendon captain Zach Merrett.
West Coast is believed to be have significant interest in local prospect Daniel Curtain with its first pick, a 195cm defender or midfielder from Western Australia who rival clubs believe has emerged as a “clear top-five” prospect.
Hawthorn’s pick 3 would be pushed out to pick 5 if the Kangaroos receive a compensation pick and an early bid is launched on Walter, with mid-sized Victorian forward Zane Duursma one player who has been strongly linked to the Hawks.
Gold Coast currently has pick 4 – which would become pick 6 – but that selection is on the trade table and is attracting early interest given the Suns would lose it if they had to match a bid on Walter beforehand.
Melbourne holds Fremantle’s first-round pick (currently pick 5) while Adelaide and GWS are next on the board as it currently stands.
Eastern Ranges small forward Nick Watson, Tasmanian midfielder Ryley Sanders, Gold Coast Suns Academy ruckman Ethan Read, Murray Bushrangers key defender Connor O’Sullivan and Northern Knights marking forward Nate Caddy sit in the next group of players.
North Melbourne has lodged paperwork to have Sanders included in its Next Generation Academy but would be unable to match a bid on him within the first 40 picks under standard rules unless the AFL provides it with a special assistance package.
The Kangaroos also hold another first-round pick (currently pick 16), which they acquired from Port Adelaide as part of the Jason Horne-Francis trade last year.
North Melbourne landed Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw with picks 3 and 4 in last year’s national draft, with Sheezel the favourite to win this year’s AFL Rising Star award.
THE RACE FOR HARLEY REID
If North Melbourne loses to Gold Coast Suns …
The Kangaroos will secure the No.1 draft pick to snag Harley Reid, regardless of result of West Coast’s match against Adelaide. The Kangaroos already sit one game behind the Eagles on the bottom of the ladder and are not favoured to beat the Suns. This scenario would scuttle rival club plans to prize the No.1 pick from West Coast, with North Melbourne certain to hold onto the selection.
If North Melbourne defeats Gold Coast and West Coast defeats Adelaide …
The Kangaroos would hold onto the No.1 pick if they beat the Suns on Saturday and then the Eagles upset the Crows later that day, given North Melbourne sits one game behind West Coast heading into the final round. Neither the Kangaroos or Eagles are favoured to win their round 24 matches, but stranger things have happened.
If North Melbourne beats Gold Coast and West Coast loses to Adelaide …
Given the Kangaroos have a superior percentage to the Eagles, they could still jump them on the ladder and lose the No.1 pick if they make up one game. Under this scenario, the selection would return to the hands of West Coast, who have indicated they could consider trading it to bring in multiple talented players at the top end of the draft.
The Eagles have shown interest in local talent Daniel Curtin, who is considered a top-five prospect. West Coast could orchestrate a small slide back in the draft order and still secure Curtin, along with another first-round selection for giving up pick 1.
North Melbourne could trade back up for the No.1 pick to take Reid, while Melbourne (currently picks 5 and 15) has also been discussed as a club that could launch a play for the boy from Tongala. Gold Coast’s first-round pick (currently pick 4) is on the trade table, which also opens up possibilities for other clubs to jump into the pointy end of the draft and on-trade that selection to West Coast to grab Reid.
FULL INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER AFTER ROUND 23
Adelaide: 6, 19, 23, 80, 98
Brisbane Lions: 27, 46, 55, 61, 91
Carlton: 14, 65, 70, 88
Collingwood: 18, 33, 74, 92
Essendon: 9, 28, 47, 68, 83
Fremantle: 20, 39, 52, 57, 79, 97
Geelong: 8, 82, 100
Gold Coast: 4, 25, 30, 42, 44, 56, 60, 62, 69, 78, 96
GWS Giants: 7, 11, 49, 67, 73, 85
Hawthorn: 3, 29, 48, 77, 95
Melbourne: 5, 15, 24, 34, 89
North Melbourne: 1, 16, 38, 53, 59, 75, 93
Port Adelaide: 37, 43, 72, 90
Richmond: 26, 45, 63, 81, 99
St Kilda: 13, 32, 51, 87
Sydney: 12, 22, 31, 41, 50, 86
West Coast: 2, 21, 35, 40, 54, 58, 76, 94
Western Bulldogs: 10, 17, 36, 64, 66, 71, 84
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