AFL 2024: 24 storylines that could define the 2024 AFL season
The Suns moved heaven and earth to get Damien Hardwick to the club, so what should our expectations be of the Gold Coast this season? These are 2024’s biggest footy stories.
The week-to-week drama that took over the AFL in 2023, gripped us all year, but what could come down the pipeline in the upcoming season to steal our hearts?
Glenn McFarlane looks at 24 storylines that could define the 2024 AFL season.
WHOSE SIGNATURE MATTERS THE MOST IN 2024?
There are plenty of players coming into free agency or to the end of their contracts at the end of 2024, making for a fascinating year of debate and discussion. Among the names to keep an eye on are Tim English (Western Bulldogs), Bailey Smith (Western Bulldogs), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (Western Bulldogs), Ben King (Gold Coast), Errol Gulden (Sydney), Dustin Martin (Richmond), Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane), Andrew McGrath (Essendon), Jake Stringer (Essendon), and Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne). All eyes will be on the Bulldogs trio, with Smith the one making fans nervous. And every Melbourne club will be keeping a close eye on what happens with the Ben King discussions, even if a Suns’ maiden finals series might sway him.
CAN THE MAGPIES GO BACK-TO-BACK AND WIN THE RACE TO 17 FLAGS?
Given the Craig McRae ‘Midas touch’, it would be a brave person to suggest otherwise. Still, the Magpies haven’t won successive flags since 1935-36, almost 90 years ago. They have since won five flags – 1953, 1958, 1990, 2010 and 2023 – but in the first four couldn’t back up the success the year after. Collingwood has secured goalkicking small forward Lachie Schultz, but lost Taylor Adams and Jack Ginnivan. Dan McStay’s ACL will hurt, Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom are a year older but continue to defy their birth certificates, and Nick Daicos might be the AFL’s best player in 2024. Still the team to beat.
HOW CAN CARLTON MANAGE THE ENORMOUS EXPECTATIONS?
They can’t. The lid is OFF. But instead of shying away from the wave of expectations fuelled by its army of fans, Carlton must embrace the hype. If Patrick Cripps and co can channel that support – as Collingwood has done – it can prove an advantage, not the suffocating millstone it might have been in the past. The Blues should be better in 2024 with Zac Williams, Harry McKay, Sam Walsh and Jack Martin likely to be fully fit again. A breakthrough first flag since 1995 is a realistic goal. A Blues-Pies grand final would be bigger than anything we’ve seen before.
CAN CLAYTON OLIVER OVERCOME HIS OFF-FIELD ISSUES?
The doubts are real, though the Demons are confident Oliver is up for the fight. At his best, he can be Melbourne’s most dominant player, evidenced by his four best and fairests. He is 26, still has seven years remaining on his $1m per season contract, and should be approaching his peak. But the Demons recently detailed Oliver’s myriad of off-field issues, to explain his erratic behaviour postseason, including a seizure in October. Somehow those issues hadn’t impacted on his football – until 2023. Now the club has imposed behavioural demands on him. For Clarry’s sake, and Melbourne’s, we hope he gets back to his best.
HAVE THE DEMONS GOT CULTURE ISSUES THAT NEEDS EXORCISING?
Not if you listen to CEO Gary Pert, who insisted Melbourne has the best culture he has experienced in 40 years of VFL-AFL football. But the Demons have had a number of distractions and issues (mostly off-field) since spectacular flag success in 2021. There was the Steven May-Jake Melksham fight in 2022; the Oliver off-field situation in 2023; Joel Smith’s positive drug test; allegations against coach Simon Goodwin (which he has strenuously denied) and successive straight sets finals exits. If the culture is as good as they tell us it is, and the list is capable of challenging for the next decade, it is time for the Demons to make a stand. Now!
IS IT A GRAND FINAL OR BUST THE LIONS?
That’s too harsh an assessment for a club who came so close to delivering its first flag since the three-peat 20 years ago. Grand finals are difficult to make; they are even harder to win. How the Lions respond to the heartache of their agonising grand final loss will be critical in charting their way back up the footy mountain. Their kids are good, their stars are very good and the second-half knee returns of recruit Tom Doedee and young gun Will Ashcroft should at least ensure a sixth consecutive finals series. But this group will want much, much more.
WAS THE ‘ITALIAN JOB’ WORTH IT FOR THE SUNS?
The reality is that anything less than a maiden finals berth for the Suns would be a disappointment for the club willing to move heaven and earth — even flying to Italy — to secure Damien Hardwick as coach. Having never won more than 10 games in a season, the Suns must win 13 to guarantee playing finals. This group has matured, Ben King is better placed in his second season back from an ACL and the four Academy first-round picks will likely challenge for spots immediately. The AFL’s problem child is ready to graduate.
WHICH RECRUITING DRIVE WILL YIELD THE BEST RESULT?
Collingwood set a template last year, bringing in four ready-made recruits who all played roles in a memorable season. Can the Bombers, Swans and Power do the same? Essendon secured Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Xavier Duursma and Todd Goldstein; Sydney added Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, James Jordon and Joel Hamling; and Port Adelaide sourced Esava Ratugolea, Ivan Soldo, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Jordan Sweet. We’re tipping the Swans will be the pick of this recruiting bunch in terms of immediate impact.
HAS BAILEY SMITH PLAYED HIS LAST GAME FOR THE DOGS?
Still too early to call, but Bulldogs fans have every right to be nervous. We know Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood will come calling. The Bulldogs had been hoping a return to form from Smith in 2024 — and a possible Dogs’ finals berth — might convince him to stay in red, white and blue. But his pre-Christmas ACL has put an end to any early discussions on a new deal. Being in rehab won’t improve his connection, though his teammates will do their best to stay close to him. Standby for a full year of speculation about where Baz will play in 2025.
WHAT DOES SMITH’S ABSENCE MEAN FOR THE BULLDOGS AND BEVO?
It hurts big time, but it need not kill the Bulldogs’ finals dreams? Smith looked ready to regain his status as one of the premier mids in 2024, but Bevo and his brains trust have a summer to come up with ways to replace him this year. The James Harmes recruitment is looking a good one now in terms of midfield depth, first-round draft pick Ryley Sanders has already impressed the coach and can play a forward-mid cameo role, while Jack Macrae might be conscripted back to the engine room, if needed. The pressure is on the Dogs — and the coach (who is contracted for two more years). Bevo loves a challenge and is up for the fight.
HOW MUCH WILL CONCUSSION DOMINATE AFL DISCUSSIONS IN 2024?
This isn’t going anywhere. It looms as the game’s most significant issue. The AFL has been urged to limit the time spent on contact drills at training sessions in the hope of better protecting players. Footy will always be a contact sport. That won’t change. But you are naive if you think there won’t be more modifications in the years ahead. Watch this space.
CAN HARLEY REID CHANGE THE EAGLES’ NARRATIVE … AND SAVE SIMMO?
That’s too much pressure to put on a kid who doesn’t turn 19 until April, though the Perth media’s obsession with Harley Reid is already starting to look a little suffocating. The No.1 draft pick can seriously play. He will be a big asset for the Eagles. In time, he can help reshape this club. But he cannot do it alone. He needs help. As far as saving Simmo goes, that’s still a long way off. Adam Simpson must show the Eagles are building again. You won’t see miracles, but we might start seeing some more growth in 2024. And hopefully the gap between the best and the worst AFL teams narrows. For the game’s sake, it needs to.
WILL THE CROWS SHAKE THEIR ROAD WORRIES TAG?
Adelaide would have played finals in 2023 but for a bizarre decision not to review Ben Keays’ goal against the Swans in round 23. Regardless, Matthew Nicks’ side must start winning on the road to leave nothing to chance in 2024. Nine of the Crows’ 11 wins in 2023 came at Adelaide Oval. The other two wins came against Hawthorn in Launceston and West Coast at Perth Stadium. More success on the road will boost the Crows’ stocks of playing a finals series for the first time since that 2017 grand final disaster.
CAN THE BOMBERS END THEIR 20-YEAR FINALS VICTORY DROUGHT?
Given I’ve left the Bombers out of the eight in my pre-season predictions, the answer is no. But that doesn’t mean Essendon won’t get better in 2024. We suspect they will. The inclusion of four players from rival clubs will help, as will the continued development of the Bombers’ younger core of players. Will it be enough to break a 7000-day finals win drought? We doubt it, but the Bombers are building and can take a few more big scalps this season.
WHICH YOUNG GUNS DESERVE A CHEEKY $5 BROWNLOW BET?
We took Nick Daicos at $51 last year in this bracket in 2023 and came mighty close. This year Daicos is the Brownlow Medal favourite, so we’re happy to have a few fivers on a few young guys – Errol Gulden ($14, 27 votes in 2023), Noah Anderson ($34 and 22 votes in 2023) and Connor Rozee ($21 and 21 votes in 2023). Suspect we’ll get a run for our money!
CAN JACK GINNIVAN KICK 40 GOALS IN 2024?
Absolutely, he can. The former Magpie, whose last game was in a premiership side, kicked 40 goals for the Pies in 2022 and will be aiming to replicate that in season one at Waverley. It won’t be easy. He had some fitness and form challenges in 2023. The supply won’t be as smooth as it was at Collingwood, but if he can milk Luke Breust for information and work in tandem with ‘Punky’, Dylan Moore and Nick ‘The Wizard’ Watson, he can have an immediate impact. Wonder how the Magpies fans will react to their one-time hero in Gather Round?
WILL THE CATS’ FORTUNES BE DETERMINED BY THE KIDS AS MUCH AS THE VETERANS?
Geelong’s 2023 premiership defence collapsed under injuries to key players, a shortened preparation, and some rare vulnerabilities. The Cats won only ten and a half games — their equal lowest tally since 2006. They will go into 2024 with 11 players aged 30 or more. And while some of the Cats’ veterans should be back to peak health, it will be their younger players who need to shine in order to get them back into the finals again. The drive for more success will come from the likes of Max Holmes, Sam De Koning, Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn and co. Would it surprise to see them play finals again? No. Can they win the flag in 2024? It’s doubtful.
CAN YZE CHANNEL ‘FLY’ AND RESHAPE RICHMOND ON THE RUN?
No one gave Collingwood any hope of playing finals in 2022, figuring Craig McRae had to start rebuilding after the Pies finished second-last the previous year. They proved everyone wrong by reshaping, not rebuilding. Can the Tigers do the same under new coach Adem Yze? It’s unlikely, given Collingwood’s lowly 2021 season turned out to be an aberration, while Richmond’s 2023 season looked more like the end of a stunning era. On the positive side, the Tigers still have 15 premiership players, but how many of those are still capable of improvement? There is also a question mark on the Tigers’ younger stocks. Yze is a great pick-up and will prove a good coach, but Richmond fans will have to be patient for a bit now.
HOW MUCH PRESSURE IS ON FREO AND JUSTIN LONGMUIR?
Plenty. The Dockers were major disappointments in 2023 after showing so much potential the previous year. What went wrong? A cautious, almost boring game-style was a factor, which is a challenge for Justin Longmuir — who is about to enter the last year of his deal — to correct. The fact they lost Lachie Schultz and Liam Henry hurts. If the Dockers’ players love their coach as much as they say they do, they need to show it on the field.
HAS THE STOCKPILING OF YOUNG TALENT GOT CLARKO EXCITED?
Watch Alastair Clarkson at pre-season training, and he is like a kid in a candy store. It’s like Hawthorn 2005 again, for the coach. The Kangaroos have had access to talent in the past two years which might prove generational. Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw, and now Colby McKercher and Zane Duursma will play a massive role in North Melbourne’s future direction. It won’t be 2024, or even 2025, but if you add those players to Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin, Nick Larkey and perhaps Tarryn Thomas (if he stays), it looks like being an exciting decade ahead for long-suffering Roos fans. Finals in 2026?
HAS BRODIE GRUNDY GOT ANOTHER ALL-AUSTRALIAN BLAZER IN HIM?
Grundy hasn’t made the AFL’s best team since 2018 and 2019 — an eternity in footy terms. But we are backing wounded pride and a hunger to prove people wrong as a driving force for the former Magpie and Demons at his new home, Sydney. He was jettisoned by Collingwood, despite being on close to $1m per season, and then overlooked — embarrassingly at times — in the second half of his sole year at Melbourne. The SCG, and the Swans style, should suit his strengths. Grundy has a massive point to prove. He could again be challenging Tim English and former teammate Max Gawn as the best ruckman in the comp by season’s end.
WHAT SORT OF IMPACT WILL NEW AFL BOSS ANDREW DILLON MAKE?
He’s already making an impact, but there is no time to waste give the challenges that lie ahead for Andrew Dillon and footy boss Laura Kane. He won’t be quite as public as his predecessor was, but has promised to be as accessible as ever for the clubs, which is good. Love the fact that he has pledged to make footy at the heart of every decision he makes. He and Kane have some work to do, including on concussion, goal review technology, competitive balances and a review of the AFL recruiting and drafting structures, including father-son and academy picks.
HAS ROSS LYON GOT A POINT THAT WE HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE SAINTS?
Ross the Boss was more than a little miffed when he read the Herald Sun’s ‘way too early’ 2024 final eight predictions and only one of the 13 scribes — chief football writer Mark Robinson — selected the Saints to make the finals. The man who loves nothing better than uniting his team around him would have undoubtedly pointed that out to his players. They will have a point to prove in 2024 … and there might be some egg on a few of our faces.
GWS AND PORT ADELAIDE PLAYED OUT OFF IN A SEMI-FINAL LAST YEAR. WHO’S CLOSER TO A FLAG IN 2024?
We’re backing the Giants in … off the back of what they achieved in the second half of Adam Kingsley’s first season and the natural improvement of their list. Port Adelaide has added some good depth to its stocks and we love the decision to make Connor Rozee captain. But we think the Toby Greene-led Giants will challenge heavily again in 2024. They almost knocked off the premiers on the penultimate weekend and they will believe in their capacity to go a step or two further this year.
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