AFL 2023: Mick McGuane on the round 23 games that will shape finals race
With his ferocious inside work Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield shapes as a game breaker against a pedestrian-looking Saints midfield. Mick McGuane analyses three finals-shaping Saturday games.
It’s a case of elimination finals in August this year.
Three games this weekend look like being do-or-die for the teams taking part as 12 sides continue the fight for eight spots in September.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has taken a look at how each of the six teams can win these crucial matches to keep their finals dreams alive.
GWS v ESSENDON
Giants Stadium, Saturday 4.35pm
How the Giants can win
Dominating stoppages will be king for Greater Western Sydney in this clash.
If Tom Green, Stephen Coniglio, Josh Kelly and Callan Ward can win in-tight contests and generate effective clearances, it will fuel the Giants’ territory game and give an in-form forward line plenty of looks.
The Giants are averaging the fourth-most inside-50s of any side at an average of 55.4 a game.
Forwards including Toby Greene, Jesse Hogan, and Jake Riccardi will provide Essendon with plenty of headaches if GWS can move the ball at speed and give their goalkickers that level of supply.
The Bombers are vulnerable down back, particularly without the injured Jordan Ridley.
One of Essendon’s strengths has been its back-to-front ball movement, which the Giants will need to work hard to limit.
They will need to bring great forward-half pressure to slow down one of the best transition teams in the competition and give defenders Sam Taylor and Nick Haynes a better chance to intercept the ball.
The Giants will rate their chances given their record against Essendon.
GWS has won five of the past seven matches between the two clubs.
How the Bombers can win
Across the season, Essendon has ranked as the best team in the competition with the footy.
This measure of success takes into account four key stats - a team’s chain to score percentage, defensive 50 to inside 50 percentage, score per inside 50 percentage and kick rating.
However, while the overall season rating is impressive, over the past six weeks the Bombers have ranked 13th.
That’s a significant and worrying drop off.
Essendon needs to rediscover its best transition footy - and fast - if it wants to keep its season alive.
The Bombers must also keep their six forwards at home this week and resist the urge to roll one up around the ball.
If they do, their midfield will be kicking the ball straight to a loose Sam Taylor or Nick Haynes who are intercepting weapons for the Giants.
Taylor has had 29 contested marks in the back half of the ground this year, which is extraordinary.
He’s also averaging 4.1 intercept marks and 10.6 intercept possessions.
At the other end of the ground, limiting Toby Greene’s impact will be vital given he has booted 16 goals from his past five games.
Jake Kelly looks the most likely match-up, but Mason Redman could also spend some time on him.
MICK’S TIP: GWS by 17 points
ST KILDA v GEELONG
Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7.25pm
How the Saints can win
Defending with the footy has been a trademark of St Kilda’s game this year and they will need to do that again against Geelong this week.
The Saints are averaging the second-most uncontested marks of any side this season and will want to hold onto the footy to take away the Cats’ pressure.
They are a team that is reluctant to kick long at the best of times and won’t want to change that this week unless they want to play into the hands of Geelong interceptors Tom Stewart and Sam De Koning.
Behind the ball, getting the match ups right will be pivotal against a dangerous Cats’ attack.
Josh Battle, Zane Cordy and Callum Wilkie will have big roles to play on Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, but the smaller defenders will also need to be at the top of their game.
As much as Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera have provided great rebound of half-back this year, they are also going to need to be accountable against Geelong small forward Tyson Stengle, Brad Close and Gryan Miers.
The Saints forwards also need to make the most of their opportunities if their side is to be considered a genuine contender this season.
While St Kilda ranks 10th for goalkicking accuracy this season - which is not horrible - Jack Higgins (43.4%), Mattaes Phillipou (42.3%) and Jade Gresham (41.7%) haven’t been reliable enough in front of the big sticks.
How the Cats can win
Geelong is at its best when it is scoring heavily on turnovers through a highly efficient forward line.
As much as St Kilda will try to defend with the footy, the Cats have to bring great pressure to create turnovers and force the game more into a transition game rather than a controlled kick-mark contest.
If they can get the game on their terms they will be able to penetrate the Saints’ defence at speed.
While Geelong is the third-best team at scoring from turnovers this season, St Kilda is the third-best team at defending them.
Whoever can gain the upper hand in this area and get the game on their terms will give themselves the best opportunity to win.
If the Cats can get their turnover game humming, their dangerous forward line should be able to do the rest.
They might only need to put 80 points on the scoreboard to win, given St Kilda ranks 15th for scores for this season, averaging just 72.4 points per game.
Tom Hawkins could really expose Josh Battle or Zane Cordy if he can get plenty of supply, while Cam Guthrie would be another important inclusion.
A general in the midfield, the Cats are a much better team with Guthrie.
Captain Patrick Dangerfield could also play a big part in this game, having found form again over the past two weeks.
With his ferocious inside work and breakaway speed from the contest, Dangerfield shapes as a game breaker against a pedestrian-looking Saints midfield.
MICK’S TIP: Geelong by 19 points
ADELAIDE v SYDNEY
Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7.40pm
How the Crows can win
Adelaide would head into this match full of confidence given what it has been able to do at home this year.
The Crows hold a 9-3 record at the Adelaide Oval and have won games against top 8 teams Port Adelaide (twice), Brisbane and St Kilda.
They also fell to ladder-leader Collingwood by only one point at Adelaide Oval in round 7.
In this match, Adelaide simply has to play to its strengths and bring manic pressure to create turnovers, before moving the ball at speed going forward when it does win the footy back.
Scoring has not been an issue for the Crows this season – they rank No.1 for scores for at an average of 95 points a game – and they have a chance here to trouble a Sydney backline which has struggled for continuity this season if they can get speed on the ball.
Izak Rankine’s return from injury will be a big boost given he has kicked 35 goals from 18 games this season, while Taylor Walker continues to hit the scoreboard and already has 65 goals to his name in what has been a remarkable season.
Defensively, Adelaide will need to diligently protect the corridor given the Swans have consistently looked to move the ball up the middle of the ground this season.
The Crows’ best has been outstanding this season, but they have also let themselves down at times which is why they don’t currently occupy a top-eight spot.
How the Swans can win
Sydney’s resurgence has largely centred on its pressure and the Swans must bring the heat in spades to score a win on the road this week.
They are the No.1 pressure team in the competition and that pressure is allowing them to get games on their terms and slice through opposition sides on turnover with their quality ball movement.
Sydney is averaging 54.6 points from turnovers this season – ranking them second in the competition.
Given the Crows are missing key defensive pillars in Jordan Butts, Tom Doedee and Nick Murray, Sydney could ask some serious questions of the home side.
Even since the retirement of Lance Franklin, the Swans have been scoring freely through the likes of Hayden McLean, Logan McDonald, Tom Papley and Isaac Heeney.
At the other end, Dane Rampe’s return from a calf complaint would be huge for the Swans, considering Adelaide’s attacking weapons and his organising ability behind the ball.
The one area that Sydney needs to work on leading into a potential finals campaign is its clearance game, with John Longmire’s side ranking 13th for points from clearances differential.
Papley has been used more around the ball over recent weeks, where he adds some zig and zag to the midfield group and has had an impact in clearances due to his creative nous.
The Swans will need him - and others - to dominate in and around stoppages, especially at Adelaide Oval against a side that is defensively sound across the ground.
MICK’S TIP: Sydney by 5 points
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