AFL 2023: Mick McGuane on the legitimacy of teams in the finals race
The Bombers have surprised plenty and are right in the hunt for finals, but there are still some significant improvements for Brad Scott to make to ensure they can contend.
As we prepare to turn the corner towards the finals, competition for spots has never been hotter.
Collingwood, Port Adelaide and Brisbane sit two games clear to head up the competition, but what about below them?
Highly-respected football analyst Mick McGuane has drilled into the Champion Data numbers and takes an in-depth look at every team from 4th-15th and determines what makes them a real September threat – and what doesn’t.
MELBOURNE
FINALS FORTE: Their brand is why they’ll hold up — built on contest, territory and pressure. Their defensive structure is rock solid as it’s built on trust and role play and they’re hard to play against and hard to score against. I’ve always believed that strong defensive actions wins premierships. Melbourne have given up the second fewest points so far this season even though Steven May, Jake Lever, Harry Petty and Christian Salem haven’t had the continuity of playing together as much as coach Simon Goodwin would have liked.
FINALS FOIBLE: The mids to forwards connection is the Demon’s major issue. They’ve got it right for periods, but when they don’t, their scoring power gets diluted. Their midfielders and running defenders need to use the ball better when entering inside 50. Whether their conversion can be trusted remains a question. Since Round 11, they’ve kicked 39.73 in 5 games — not good enough. They’re not September numbers by anyone’s calculations, and with their best goalkicker Bayley Fritsch now sidelined with a foot injury, their conversion at goal needs serious attention.
ST KILDA
FINALS FORTE: The Saints only concede an average of 72 points per games, and rank second in the competition for opposition scores per inside 50. That's a solid defensive profile which is a result of what happens further afield. Pressure from forwards Jack Higgins, Dan Butler, Jade Gresham and Mitch Owens is an asset and helps defenders be assertive with their positioning. Callum Wilkie has been stellar – he reads the cues well and his intercept ability is as good as anyone in the comp. Opposition teams must start putting time into him to nullify his aerial dominance.
FINALS FOIBLE: Scoring efficiency is a major concern, with the Saints ranked 18th in the game for scores per inside 50. They’ve averaged 52 inside 50s per game this year, so they’re getting plenty of opportunities to capitalise, but are only averaging 79 points per game. The gap between their offence and defence is probably one or two goals short. Higgins, Butler, Gresham and Owens have been reliable scoring options but will they get the job done in the finals? The timing might be perfect for Max King, who could be the point of difference the Saints desperately need.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
FINALS FORTE: They’ve got star factor – Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Aaron Naughton and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. And let’s not forget Jack Macrae, although he hasn’t been as prolific as previous years. This group are superbly led by Bontempelli and Liberatore – they are the Dogs’ best tacklers — and they lead the way by applying great pressure on the opposition. What the Bulldogs do without the ball will give them their biggest chance to be a serious September contender.
FINALS FOIBLE: There’s three things I concentrate on at the pointy end of the year. Contest, pressure – which must be manic — and ball use. Under high intensity, we find out who can make good decisions and execute. Currently, there’s a question over the Dogs’ ball movement, and at times the balance of when to play fast or when to go slow is out of whack. This confusion is causing turnovers and as they are not predictable to each other.
ADELAIDE
FINALS FORTE: The potency in their forward line is a point of difference. The Crows forwards isolate and separate from each other as good as any forward unit in the competition. They understand space and know how to manipulate it for the forward line to function in an efficient manner. They’re a very good ball-using team which is why they’re No. 1 when it comes to scores per inside 50 percentage. Taylor Walker, Izak Rankine, Darcy Fogarty, Luke Pedlar and Josh Rachele all complement each other but most importantly they are selfless when the time presents.
FINALS FOIBLE: When the stakes are high, some finals can become a bit of a stoppage game which is a concern for the Crows. They are 15th in the competition for opposition points from clearances. They roll the dice too often and lose their shape after a stoppage loss, exposing their defence. Players like Rory Laird, Jordan Dawson, Rory Sloane and Jake Soligo have to immediately snap into a defensive mindset. As a midfield group the Crows have to master that, because defending stoppages is as important as winning them in finals.
ESSENDON
FINALS FORTE: This year Essendon players are very clear when it comes to their ball movement and because of that it’s a strength of their game. There is a lot of trust in Sam Weideman, Peter Wright, Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips when the Bombers are forced down the line in a slow play situation. The midfielders can get front and centre to the marking contests as they know where the ball is going. With their kick rating being the best in the game, Essendon should believe that their counter-attack style of ball movement can challenge any defensive structure they face.
FINALS FOIBLE: Don’t fret, Bombers – the team might be ranked 16th for opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 percentage, but it all depends on speed. Yes, opposition teams might be transitioning the ball from back to front but if they’re doing it slowly then it’s far less damaging as it gives Essendon defenders time to set up and reference a dangerous opponent. The biggest issue for the Bombers is that they are considered the worst in the competition for applying pressure. That must change for Essendon to be a legitimate threat.
GEELONG
FINALS FORTE: The Cats just haven’t had continuity – Patrick Dangerfield’s been in and out, Sam De Koning’s been thrown around, Mitch Duncan and Jack Henry have missed a lot of footy but if the footy gods shine over them from now on, look out. They are experienced and in an ominous sign, their front-half game is returning. The Cats can apply great pressure through the likes of Tom Atkins, Tyson Stengle, Brad Close, Gryan Miers and Gary Rohan. These players help produce turnovers and this is when Geelong are at their best.
FINALS FOIBLE: Are their best players in the form they need to be and will the lack of continuity cost them? Tom Stewart, Jed Bews, Jake Kolodjashnij, De Koning, Esava Ratugolea, Henry – are all very competent defenders but if there’s any disconnection within their defensive system due to lack of continuity, fitness or buy-in, these defenders could get exposed. They’re ranked 15th for opposition score per inside 50 percentage – that’s not Geelong and it must change.
GWS GIANTS
FINALS FORTE: The Giants are legitimate as they are a hard team to play against. They have improved their defensive profile and it’s all because of the work they do without the ball. Their biggest knock over a long period of time was how they defended opposition ball movement, but Adam Kingsley is well and truly on the way to fixing that. There’s players now in the forward line like Toby Bedford, Xavier O’Halloran and Brent Daniels who are playing with a mindset that applying pressure on the opposition is more important than kicking a goal. Their profile over the last month indicates they’re on the march defensively which will hold them in such great shape come September. Kingsley is coaching with dare, purpose and a clear game style that he knows will stand up at the pointy end.
FINALS FOIBLE: I’m not fully sold on the set up in front of the ball. Toby Greene is one of the best players in the competition, but he can’t do it all. Who is it? Jesse Hogan looks invested but will finals footy get the better of him mentally. Is Harry Himmelberg best suited as a forward come September? Can Jake Riccardi stand up in finals where key forwards can’t hide?
FREMANTLE
FINALS FORTE: When Fremantle are at their best its about the manic pressure the bring to their opposition. The Dockers must consistently bring a ruthless desire to chase, harass and tackle their opposition. Taking away their opposition’s time and space when they have the ball is what makes them a potential top-eight team. Their midfield group is tough yet it offers some class through Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong. When Fremantle provide pressure all over the ground you must treat them seriously.
FINALS FOIBLE: Their forward line is just too inconsistent to be trusted to win big finals games. They’re 15th for scores per inside 50 percentage, and there’s a lot of tinkering going on. A lot of pressure is on youngster Jye Amiss to measure up in the short term. He is an emerging talent but needs Luke Jackson to be at his best as he can draw a crowd. Can Nat Fyfe impact as a forward come finals time? Footy doesn’t discriminate – no matter what you’ve done in the game but Fyfe currently looks miles away from his best.
GOLD COAST
FINALS FORTE: Contested ball is king in finals and Stuart Dew is clearly building a brand around being a strong, contested team. When the stakes are high, you’ve got to be that. Winning critical contests is something they can do, but it’s been a bit inconsistent. When they do it, with Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson around the footy, they’re hard to beat. Touk Miller is the forgotten name in footy. He’s one of their most consistent contributors over a long period back – don’t underestimate that.
FINALS FOIBLE: The concern lies in their kicking skills (17th in the competition) and as a consequence of that their ball movement (11th) is compromised. I’d hate to think how many times I’ve seen Suns players out and in space and miss simple targets. Unforced errors are destroying the teams morale and it’s fabric. If they’re to be taken seriously, that’s got to be tidied up. How will they handle the pressure cooker of a final at the MCG in front of 90,000?
SYDNEY
FINALS FORTE: Their ability to stifle the opposition’s ball movement from defensive 50 to inside 50 and their willingness to hunt the opposition and apply great pressure are two legitimate reasons as to why the Swans can challenge if they qualify. If their pressure game returns like it did against Geelong last week – a game they should have won – that will bode well for their future weeks as they continue to try to qualify. From a mindset standpoint, Longmire will be reminding his players that pressuring the opposition is in their control and it’s a choice every player must buy into.
FINALS FOIBLE: Stoppages are one facet of the game that needs improvement and should improve considering Tom Hickey is now back after an interrupted start to his season through injury. Callum Mills is back and players like James Rowbottom, Luke Parker, Errol Gulden and Tom Papley need to roll up their sleeves and look to change their clearance returns. Their clearance game has to lift and become a weapon, not a destruction.
CARLTON
FINALS FORTE: Coach Michael Voss has put a lot of time and effort into their defensive mechanisms and are No. 4 in the competition for both points against and opposition points from turnovers. The Blues have gone a little too far that way, but their ability to defend will hold them in good stead. They will back themselves to defend any team, because they’ve had good opportunities to do it all year. Jacob Weitering and his teammates behind the footy are doing a terrific job and are not getting blown out of the water.
FINALS FOIBLE: Can we trust their ability in a high-pressure game to make the right decisions and execute them with effective ball use? Their kicking has been poor especially coming out of defence and they must learn to punish the opposition once they create turnovers. Also, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow are aching for better delivery once going inside 50. The difference between Carlton’s best and their worst has been far too great and good teams minimise that.
RICHMOND
FINALS FORTE: At their best, you have to treat them seriously because on both sides of the ball, they can do damage. Right now, it’s heavily slanted to how they are defending. They’re No. 3 ranked for opposition scores per inside 50 percentage and that’s thanks to Nick Vlastuin, Dylan Grimes and Noah Balta. Their defensive system has generally held them in good shape. When they pressure strongly out of their forward line it gives their interceptors opportunities to win the ball back between the arcs.
FINALS FOIBLE:
Their ability to hold on to the football is crucial.
It creates efficiency, flow and rhythm within the game. But, ranked 14th for chain to score percentage, they just have too many broken plays.
They’re 12th in the competition for scores per inside 50, but that’s fixable. Tom Lynch will return to the forward line and that will boost morale enormously.
Richmond are more than capable as the names are there but their ball use is what’s escaped them regularly this year.
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