AFL 2023: How your club’s early picks are shaping up for a round 1 debut
There’s always excitement about the new AFL talent, but who are the bolters that may sneak into your club’s 23? Attention Supercoachers, this one is for you!
The AFL season is just over a month away and the cream is rising to the top.
The AFL’s top three draft picks in Aaron Cadman, Will Ashcroft and Harry Sheezel are all set for round 1 debuts but at Essendon and North Melbourne a pair of late picks are pushing hard as genuine bolters.
Here is the latest intel on how the AFL’s top 15 picks are shaping up ahead of round 1.
1. Aaron Cadman (GWS)
KFC SuperCoach price: $207,300 FWD
Lock Cadman in for a debut in the early rounds of the season, most likely in round 1 barring injury.
The only impediment to that debut being pushed back several rounds is the strong pre-season form of Jesse Hogan, Harry Himmelberg and Jake Riccardi across summer.
Cadman has breezed through the pre-season without any setbacks.
And he has done so with a huge smile across his face, validation of the club’s determination to get up the draft order to secure the Vic Country boy who was no flight risk, unlike rival draftees.
Cadman is an athletic beast so will be able to slot into the side as a third forward before developing his game, and the adaptability of 2022 swingman Himmelberg gives Adam Kingsley options.
Kingsley could play Hogan, Himmelberg and Riccardi alongside Toby Greene, Toby Bedford and Brent Daniels or he could throw Himmelberg back into defence to create space for another tall forward.
No one is in a rush to throw Cadman into the senior side but he’s proven he’s AFL-ready.
2. Will Ashcroft (Brisbane)
KFC SuperCoach price: $202,800 MID
An absolute lock for round 1, with Ashcroft already flying past several other midfielders in the race for a round 1 spot.
He will round out an imposing Lions midfield that includes Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage and Jarrod Berry, close to best on ground in scrimmages including last week’s intraclub.
Ashcroft is a contested beast who is likely to win high possession counts from the first games of his career.
He is a different player to Nick Daicos – more polished, a little more outside – and while he has some zip and speed his RFI (room for improvement) is scoreboard impact and tidying up his kicking. The Lions could also use him as a wingman at times given they have so many quality mids.
3. Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne)
KFC SuperCoach price: $198,300 FWD
Lock him in.
Sheezel was drafted as a midfielder-half forward with polish and X-factor and has shown exactly that in his first months at Arden Street.
The Roos have a full-blown intraclub on February 18 where round 1 spots will become clearer but Sheezel has been everything the Roos have asked of him so far.
Ben Cunnington’s superb pre-season means the Roos centre square unit can boast the centre square extractor alongside Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin, Will Phillips and Tom Powell, so Sheezel might start at half forward.
The round 1 bolter to watch at North Melbourne is definitely the club’s No. 1 rookie pick Blake Drury.
The red-headed pocket rocket was drafted as a 178cm small forward but is doing exceptional stuff with the defensive group and has good skills and an exceptional work ethic.
The pre-season games are ahead but on training form look for him to establish himself as a 2022 regular.
4. George Wardlaw (North Melbourne)
KFC SuperCoach price: $193,800 MID
Wardlaw is being held back by the Roos given a recurrence of his 2022 hamstring issues when he arrived at the club and while it was only a lower-level issue they are now building him up slowly.
The Roos will want to get a heavy block of training into him before he is ready for the rigours of AFL footy. It’s not ideal but for a Roos side hoping to get a breakout year from Phillips and No. 3 pick Sheezel there will be plenty of time for Wardlaw to make an impression.
5. Elijah Tsatas (Essendon)
KFC SuperCoach price: $189,300 MID
Tsatas is out for 10 weeks with a meniscus injury which means a mid-season debut would be the best-case scenario after he builds fitness again.
The one to watch is Alwyn Davey Jr, who has already turned heads with the high-pressure small forward play that made his father such a joy to watch when at his best.
Brother Jayden is coming back from another ACL so won’t be rushed, but Essendon’s injuries mean a round 1 debut is a possibility for Alwyn Jr.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is building gradually but unlikely to be fit enough for round 1, while Jake Stringer has had to deal with niggles and Matt Guelfi has a calf strain.
It opens the door for Davey to play a meaningful role in the two practice games with St Kilda taking a full squad to the Gold Coast for a six-period hitout before AFL and VFL games against St Kilda and VFL affiliate.
Watch this space on Rhett Montgomerie, who was drafted as a 22-year-old intercept defender at pick 4 in the rookie draft and will be one to watch in the practice games.
Mid-season draftees Nic Martin and Sam Durham have both been excellent across the summer and will look to take the next step after impressive 2022 form.
6. Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast)
KFC SuperCoach price: $184,100 MID/FWD
The midfielder-half forward couldn’t have been more impressive in match simulation for Gold Coast and there is a role to fill in the front six given Izak Rankine’s departure.
While they aren’t exactly like-for-likes, Humphrey has already been given the tick of approval by star Noah Anderson, who said last month: “He looks like he could run out there today as a first-year player.”
Given the Suns’ determination to draft Humphrey for his specific skill set look for him to play early and often.
7. Cameron Mackenzie (Hawthorn)
KFC SuperCoach price: $180,300 MID
Look for Mackenzie to debut at least in the first month of the AFL season, if not in round 1, given his accomplished midfield work in match simulation for Hawthorn.
The midfield exodus means the club is aware Jye Newcombe is their best midfielder and behind that as many as 15 players will be putting their hands up to play regular onball time.
It means the club’s pair of AFL practice matches will be closely monitored as Sam Mitchell puts together his best 22.
But as Hawks assistant David Hale said this week that McKenzie has looked good in scrimmages, is an excellent stoppage player and is clean by hand and foot.
In a midfield that might as well play as many quality kids as possible he will hope to get in early and hold onto his spot.
Josh Weddle dominated an early 2km time trial to put his teammates on notice but Karl Amon and Harry Morrison are likely to take the wing spots, so watch for his February progress.
8. Jhye Clarke (Geelong)
KFC SuperCoach price: $175,800 MID
Clarke hasn’t put a foot wrong but as many young Cats mids have found out before him it’s damned hard to crack into the starting onball unit.
The club has slotted him into half back for some drills but the midfield and defensive spots are hard to come by and while Joel Selwood has retired Jack Bowes should be part of the first onball unit.
It means Clarke might have to bide his time unless he can show he is a modern-day Selwood, who played round 1 in his debut season and never looked back.
If you are looking at KFC SuperCoach candidates consider that the Cats rest and rotate their young kids often so potentially look elsewhere.
9. Reuben Ginbey (West Coast)
KFC SuperCoach price: $171,300 DEF/MID
Ginbey is already being hyped to make his round 1 debut for West Coast given his powerful physique and body of work over summer.
All Australian Jeremy McGovern is blown away, saying the 188cm, 82kg inside mid has “blown expectations out of the water” given his presence and capacity to play multiple positions.
If West Coast don’t get him in and play him every chance they can despite their midfield depth – Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly, Elliot Yeo, Dom Sheed – they have rocks in their head.
10. Mattaes Phillipou (St Kilda)
KFC SuperCoach price: $166,800 MID/FWD
The rangy 192cm mid-forward spruiked as a player in the Bontempelli-Fyfe mould as a tall onballer has thrived on the workload at St Kilda, eating up the training sessions and thrown himself into extra work.
While the Saints showed last year they were prepared to play their draftees early – including light-bodied Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera – Phillipou has mostly played SANFL against fellow juniors.
It means the next month will tell the tale of how quickly he is able to adapt against strong-bodied men.
Ross Lyon would be delighted to get double-figure games out of him to fast-track his development but he would need to shine in the match practice sessions to come before he is pencilled in for an early-round debut.
11. Oliver Hollands (Carlton)
KFC SuperCoach price: $162,300 MID
Hollands can’t be faulted after a solid summer of work where he has proved he is an elite runner physically ready for the demands of AFL footy.
The Blues will soon ramp up their match practice so now is the time he can prove he is ready to shine at a club that has lost Zac Williams for the season and Sam Walsh for the first month or so.
The long-term plan is for Hollands to establish himself on the wing but Blake Acres has a lock on one side of the ground and the 183cm mid will have to kick Lochie O’Brien out of his spot after a solid 2022.
With Carlton having a long list of flankers like Jack Martin, Jack Silvagni, Zac Fisher and co. he will hope to break into the side early and showcase his running power across the MCG.
12. Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane)
KFC SuperCoach price: $157,800 MID
Fletcher can do it all as an accomplished midfielder excellent on both sides of his body who can also kick long raking goals.
But he has only just started running in the last month after a back injury so will be eased into the action.
Monitor his progress across the early rounds of the season but the future is bright with Ashcroft and Adrian’s son Jaspa, with Will Ashcroft’s younger brother Levi sure to be at the Lions as a father-son in two years time.
13. Jedd Busslinger (Western Bulldogs)
KFC SuperCoach price: $153,300 DEF
Busslinger’s potential upside is off the charts but he’s still very much a project player as an intercept defender, especially given a shoulder reconstruction last year that means he’s still in modified training at Whitten Oval.
He’s back running and joining in some drills but nothing with any contact at a club that suddenly has a vastly-improved backline given Liam Jones’ return and Josh Bruce’s positional switch.
Ex-Dog and Blue Jones hasn’t missed a beat both as a last-line defender in a side where Ryan Gardner and Sam Darcy will both again be Bulldogs regulars.
Jones has missed 12 months of footy but it sure doesn’t show on the training track.
14. Elijah Hewett (West Coast)
KFC SuperCoach price: $148,800 MID
Hewett has arrived at West Coast with a reputation as an explosive and agile midfielder and in early match practice sorties he has brought those attributes to the table.
The question for West Coast is how many of their five 2022 draftees they can find room for but Adam Simpson would be well aware the future is the kids.
Noah Long, a 177cm 73kg small forward taken with the club’s fifth pick (No. 58) has already put forward his case for a round 1 spot given Junior Rioli’s departure for Port Adelaide.
15. Matthew Jefferson (Melbourne)
KFC SuperCoach price: $144,300 FWD
Jefferson is a key forward of the future for the Demons, who drafted the high-marking key position player aware he was unlikely to make his mark in 2023.
With Jacob Van Rooyen uncapped but likely to make a splash this year, Jefferson will almost certainly bide his time in the VFL in a learning year.
The Demons report that he hasn’t missed a beat across the summer and settled in well but he would need a spate of injuries to be in contention early in the year.
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