AFL 2023: Final predicted ladder and possible finish for every team
As dire as things looked for Essendon after the loss to GWS, finals are still within reach – but it would take some crazy scores this weekend. Here’s how they get there.
Don’t give up hope just yet, Bombers fans.
Essendon seemingly torpedoed its season with a 126-point loss to GWS last weekend, but that ignores the two favourite words of many supporters at this time of year: mathematically possible.
The Bombers sit 10th on the ladder entering round 24, just one win behind the eighth-placed Giants, who face a rampaging Carlton in the final game of the home-and-away season.
If Essendon upsets Collingwood on Friday night and the Giants and Western Bulldogs lose, the last spot in the eight will come down to percentage.
Unfortunately, GWS currently holds a 12.9 per cent advantage over the Bombers. What would it take to bridge that gap?
We’ve done the maths and all it would take is Essendon to defeat Collingwood 179-30 and the Giants to suffer a 135-40 loss to Carlton.
That would give the Bombers a percentage of 100.35, just edging out the Giants on 100.31.
Granted, that is highly unlikely, but Essendon has only itself to blame over the past three weeks. A slightly more respectable margin against the Giants and healthier wins against North Melbourne (nine points) and West Coast (one point) would make the maths a lot more realistic.
Run home: Best, worst possible finish for every club
– Josh Barnes
The make-up of the top eight became much clearer in round 23, as Geelong, Adelaide, Essendon all kissed their finals chances goodbye.
The Western Bulldogs copped one of the worst losses of any side this year but their season is still alive, while final positions are still up for grabs across the ladder.
Here are the final predictions on where each team will end up, plus each club’s best and worst-case scenario.
1. COLLINGWOOD
Won: 17, Lost: 5, Points: 68, Percentage: 123.2
Craig McRae was clear after a loss on Friday night that there are issues to fix before finals, but the Magpies should get there with the minor premiership in tow. A loss against a flailing Essendon would be a major surprise and only an unfathomable percentage swing with Port Adelaide could see the Magpies lose out on a home final. It’s virtually impossible. Most likely the Pies will host Melbourne at the MCG in a qualifying final, hardly a home-ground advantage.
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Won: 16, Lost: 6, Points: 64, Percentage: 123.2
Only twice – 2001 and 2002 – have the Brisbane Lions won 17 games in a season, so a win against St Kilda would seal one of the club’s greatest ever home-and-away campaigns. A win would also seal a home qualifying final, a huge result for Chris Fagan’s team. Lose on Saturday and both Melbourne and Port Adelaide could overtake the Lions, sending them to the MCG for a qualifying final.
3. PORT ADELAIDE
Won: 16, Lost: 6, Points: 64, Percentage: 111.5
An important win by Port Adelaide over Fremantle on Sunday keeps hopes of a home final alive. Percentage makes it nearly impossible for the Power to leap to first, even if Collingwood and Brisbane lose. It looks like they will be on the road to start finals.
4. MELBOURNE
Won: 15, Lost: 7, Points: 56, Percentage: 124.8
Melbourne survived a small scare from Hawthorn on Sunday to lock away a spot in the top four. At worst, the Demons will finish fourth. If Port Adelaide and Brisbane both lose, Melbourne could climb to second and secure a home final. It’s likely the Demons will be playing at the MCG against the Magpies in a qualifying final – who do you have your money on there?
5. CARLTON
Won: 13, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 54, Percentage: 116.1
Melbourne’s win over Hawthorn on Sunday shut the door on the top four for Carlton – a sentence that would have been unbelievable just 10 weeks ago. The Blues will close the season by hosting the Giants, a game inwhich GWS will have to win to make finals, so there will be plenty on the line. There will be plenty on the line for Carlton, too – if St Kilda wins, Sydney wins and makes up enough percentage, and the Blues lose, Carlton could slide to seventh and have to travel to play the Swans in an elimination final.
6. ST KILDA
Won: 13, Lost: 9, Points: 52, Percentage: 108.9
Ross Lyon was right the whole time when he said the ladder didn’t lie – even if we doubted him. The Saints are bound for September. They were almost certainly on the way but that was locked in on Sunday when the Bulldogs fell to West Coast. A win over the Lions on Saturday would secure a home final, which could be crucial with two Sydney-based teams waiting in hope.
7. SYDNEY
Won: 12, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 50, Percentage: 111.6
It really isn’t that long ago that an interchange infringement free kick got Sydney over the line against North Melbourne. A loss that day would have had Sydney sitting with a 3-7 record and the season virtually shot. But, once again, John Longmire has found a way. Who would want to run into the Swans in the finals series? A goal umpire mistake helped but Saturday night’s win against Adelaide was set up early and puts the Swans in the box seat. A win over Melbourne on Sunday and a home final is a possibility. Lose and GWS could overtake the Swans.
8. GWS GIANTS
Won: 12, Lost: 10, Points: 48, Percentage: 105.6
How hard were the Giants cheering for the Eagles on Sunday? GWS will know what the state of play is when the ball bounced for the last game of the year against Carlton. It’s possible for the Giants to leap either St Kilda or Sydney, but GWS will be focused on what the Bulldogs do against Geelong on Saturday night. If the Dogs don’t beat the Cats, the Giants are in. Otherwise, they will have to beat the Blues.
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Won: 11, Lost: 11, Points: 44, Percentage: 107.6
What a disastrous fortnight. The Bulldogs were essentially locked in to the finals just two weeks ago with games against Hawthorn and West Coast to come, but they dropped the undroppable. Now the Dogs can only make it if they beat Geelong for the first time in six attempts and GWS loses to Carlton. How could you possibly tip the Dogs next week? In reality, the Dogs simply don’t deserve to play finals.
10. ESSENDON
Won: 11, Lost: 11, Points: 44, Percentage: 92.7
Yes, it is mathematically possible for the Dons to make finals, but they have to make up a game and 13 per cent on the Giants, while hoping the Dogs lose. So, it’s not really that possible. Essendon’s dispiriting smashing at the hands of GWS really ended the season, but fans will want a good showing in the final round against Collingwood.
11. GEELONG
Won: 10, Lost: 11, Drawn: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 114.7
Chris Scott has never had a losing season as coach of the Cats – 2015 was the only other time since he took charge in 2011 that Geelong missed finials, and that year the Cats went 11-9-1. A win over the Dogs would at least draw the ledger level but finals slipped away on Saturday night in a dismal effort against the Saints. Geelong hasn’t finished a season lower than 10th on the ladder since finishing 12th in 2003.
12. RICHMOND
Won: 10, Lost: 11, Drawn: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 94.9
Saturday’s farewell tour for Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt was a beauty. But it’s hard to see the Tigers having as much fun this week on the road against the Power. Richmond cannot make the eight from here.
13. ADELAIDE
Won: 10, Lost: 12, Points: 40, Percentage: 115.1
Look away now Adelaide fans – if Ben Keays’ snap had been rightly called a goal (and the Crows held on for the final minute against the Swans) we would have had them making the eight. That is how fine the margin has been for the Crows this year. It is possible for Adelaide to climb to ninth in the final round – but only if Geelong and the Bulldogs play out a draw.
14. FREMANTLE
Won: 9, Lost: 13, Points: 36, Percentage: 94.6
Fremantle pushed Port Adelaide to the end on Sunday, a loss that likely rules out finishing 13th. Only a huge percentage swing could get the Power above the Crows, who take on West Coast in the final round.
15. GOLD COAST
Won: 9, Lost: 13, Points: 36, Percentage: 93
Heading down to Tasmania to beat North Melbourne is absolutely no shoo-in but the Suns should get it done. They did so much right against the Blues but just couldn’t stop Charlie Curnow. A win over the Roos would equal 2022 and 2014 for the most wins in a season in club history.
16. HAWTHORN
Won: 7, Lost: 15, Points: 28, Percentage: 81.2
The only team that can’t move in the final week of the season, the Hawks will remain in 16th no matter what. Getting to eight wins would be a solid achievement for Sam Mitchell’s team and they deserve to be favourites at home against Fremantle.
17. WEST COAST
Won: 3, Lost: 19, Points: 12, Percentage: 52.5
What a result for Adam Simpson and the Eagles. The stunner over the Dogs may have saved the coach’s job and it also may have saved the club from the wooden spoon. That means West Coast will miss out on the No.1 pick and Harley Reid, but that might be the best result for everybody involved. Sunday’s win meant the Eagles can’t equal last year for the worst season in club history.
18. NORTH MELBOURNE
Won: 2, Lost: 20, Points: 8, Percentage: 68.7
What does it say about North Melbourne that the Roos will now likely finish below the hopeless West Coast? Unless the Roos beat the Suns in Tassie – certainly possible – they will grab their third-consecutive wooden spoon, a streak we haven’t seen since Sydney in the early 1990s. At least North should get Harley Reid for it.
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