AFL 2023: Blockbuster finish looms as AFL prepares round 24 fixture
Can the finish to the home-and-away season match last year’s Collingwood-Carlton epic? The AFL has plenty to work with as it starts to map out the final round fixture.
Finals-bound powerhouses Essendon and Collingwood would face off at 3.20pm on Sunday in round 24 under a fixture scenario with the potential to recreate last year’s grandstand finish to the home-and-away season.
Carlton was famously bounced from September by a matter of seconds as Jamie Elliott’s last-gasp matchwinner delivered Collingwood the all-important double chance and a one-point win in front of 88,287 fans in the 3.20pm Sunday timeslot at the ’G.
Similar stakes could be riding on this year’s blockbuster final-round clash – the Bombers might be playing for a place in the top eight while the Magpies might need a victory to seal a top-two finish on the ladder.
The AFL has the round 24 draw of its dreams, with Brisbane Lions-St Kilda (Gabba), Geelong-Western Bulldogs (GMHBA Stadium), Port Adelaide-Richmond (AO) and Sydney-Melbourne (SCG) other crucial matches that the weekend can be built around.
The array of finals-shaping contests gives the AFL extra flexibility as it looks to satisfy a number of little-known guidelines that must go into the fixture melting pot.
It’s understood that two games are in the mix for Friday night football – Lions-Saints and Dons-Pies.
Whichever match is overlooked for the marquee Friday timeslot is tipped to be played on Sunday.
But while the MCG battle would be broadcast on Channel 7 game at 3.20pm on Sunday, the Gabba clash could instead be played at 4.40pm on Sunday.
The AFL will announce the round 24 schedule in about three weeks, giving fixture king Travis Auld and his team another two complete weekends of football to watch before deciding on the timeslots.
They have not yet made any concrete plans and are likely to put their ideas on paper in the week leading into round 20.
This year’s wide-open finals race – 15th-placed Sydney is still a chance – means the AFL’s chances of nailing its fixture will improve the longer it takes to release it.
It’s understood the AFL starts the process by cutting out games that cannot be fixtured on Friday night due to the cap on five-day breaks that can be given to each club in one season.
Those matches include Cats-Dogs, Swans-Dees and Power-Tigers.
Sydney traditionally plays at the SCG on Saturdays instead of Sundays, so that match would appeal for either the Saturday twilight or night timeslots.
The Geelong-Bulldogs clash is a clear favourite for Saturday night football, while Adelaide Oval has historically had no problem hosting matches on a Saturday night or Sunday.
Once the structure of the weekend is sorted – the Friday night, Saturday night and 3.20pm Sunday matches are locked in – the league then figures out how to arrange the rest of the slots.
Non-Victorian clubs cannot crossover with their cross-town rival. But with so many crucial games expected in round 24, the AFL should fill those big slots and still have good games left over.
Adelaide’s match against West Coast could double as Taylor Walker’s shot at a maiden Coleman Medal. Walker’s main rival for the award, Charlie Curnow, bagged 9.3 against the Eagles in Perth this year, while in 2017 Lance Franklin booted 10 goals in the last round to pip Josh Kennedy.
The league’s overlay for the last round is to tell a narrative. The AFL wants to start strongly with a belter of a Friday night – which is the aim every week – but then drag the final round right out so that the last two games have relevance.
Recently it has been a big tick, with the composition of the top eight coming down to the last quarter of that last game.
For that reason a Sunday twilight clash of Lions-Saints or Power-Tigers would make more sense, as opposed to a likely dead-rubber game such as Hawthorn-Fremantle or North Melbourne-Gold Coast.
The AFL’s biggest fear is the top eight being sorted by Saturday night, leaving a day of dead Sunday football to close the season.
The flexibility for scheduling in round 24 is also boosted by the pre-finals bye. The league only needs to consider the break for each club from its round 23 match, rather than a look forward to the next week, when allocating games.
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