AFL 2023: Richmond in crisis as Toby Nankervis joins growing injury list
Don’t let the premiership betting markets fool you. Richmond almost certainly won’t win the flag this year. But they can set themselves up for next season.
Damien Hardwick was at his most cranky and irrational as he packed four verbal haymakers into a four-minute 39-second press conference on Saturday night.
He slammed the AFL for its farcical sub rules, he smacked his own midfield for an 8-16 centre square clearance discrepancy.
He smashed the league’s broadcasters for no apparent reason and made a pre-emptive swipe at the MRO defending Tom Lynch in the collision that concussed Alex Keath.
In short, he threw the toys out of the cot.
So might most AFL coaches if their medicos had just told them their best player might have a broken foot that in all likelihood will end Richmond’s premiership hopes this year.
It is why Richmond loves him.
So fierce, so determined, at times so wilful in the immediate aftermath of a lost game.
But as Hardwick digested the news of his star player Lynch’s imminent loss for eight weeks, it shouldn’t have altered Richmond’s path forward this year.
In fact, it only reinforces it.
The news only got worse on Monday with Toby Nankervis out medium-term with syndesmosis.
Richmond almost certainly won’t win the flag this year.
Don’t look at the premiership odds that have the Tigers at $15, look at their history last year.
As Lynch was hamstrung early in round 17, they lost to North Melbourne and Gold Coast and drew with Fremantle.
Then, as he returned with bags of four, four, eight and five, the Tigers won four straight to make finals before his dramatic set shot in the final was judged to fly over the point post.
Quite literally, as we saw in round 1 with his last-gasp mark and goal, the Tigers’ fortunes hang on his right boot.
But what his continuing absence gives Hardwick is a free shot to fast-track the kids without the expectation of finals.
It had already started with the decision to “manage” Jack Riewoldt and make Trent Cotchin the sub in a game where both might have helped the Tigers secure four points.
Hardwick doesn’t need to try to give Dustin Martin one final legacy-defining flag.
His only real priority is focusing on September 2024 and ensuring enough of these kids have been fast-tracked by then to set up the next flag tilt.
It doesn’t need to be at the total expense of Cotchin or Riewoldt, given how instructive VFL football can be for young players.
Noah Cumberland is a gifted offensive player but Hardwick kept him in the VFL to learn how to play the Richmond way.
Maurice Rioli is there right now, rounding out his game.
But Hardwick’s task is exactly what Ross Lyon is doing with less expectations at St Kilda.
Set up the ground with elite structures, but prioritise development of the kids at all costs.
Hardwick’s great mate Alastair Clarkson topped up without bringing in early draft picks and it got him sacked, but Richmond has already shown they are prepared to balance both priorities.
The nucleus of an elite side in the post Dustin Martin era is there, even if it needs key components to fill it out.
In defence, Josh Gibcus (20 years old), Noah Balta (23), Tylar Young (24) and Daniel Rioli (25) is a core to build around, alongside 28-year-old Nick Vlastuin.
Hardwick will find out in the next 10 weeks if Samson Ryan is a gawky beanpole or a player of real promise.
But Judson Clark is 19, Maurice Rioli is 20, Noah Cumberland is 22, Ben Miller is 23, Shai Bolton is 24.
Hardwick won a flag in 2017 playing Jack Riewoldt and the kids.
What can he generate in the next 10 weeks from a forward line that is Richmond’s greatest concern?
A side that in 2022 was first in points for and points-from-turnovers, second for defensive-50-to-forward 50 transition and third for score-per-inside 50 has flipped that script.
Even with Lynch, they are 17th for scores-per-inside 50, 15th for total points and 15th for points from turnovers.
There is no easy answer to whether the Tigers gave up too much for Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto.
For Taranto, Richmond gave up pick 12 (Elijah Hewett) and pick 19 (which became GWS kid Max Gruzewski at pick 22).
For Hopper, the Tigers gave up pick 31 (which became GWS kid Toby McMullin at pick 34) and this year’s first-rounder, and got back pick 53 and 63.
If the first-rounder becomes a top-eight pick this year, it’s a fair haul.
Especially given Taranto is rated below average as an AFL midfielder this year, with his excellent disposal and clearance tallies affected by kicking, which is officially poor by Champion Data metrics.
But it gives Hardwick time to slot in young midfielders Tyler Sonsie, Sam Banks, Thomson Dow – all top 30 picks – when appropriate.
So Hardwick has set his course and the mounting injury list gives him carte blanche to execute his strategy no matter how many veteran egos he puts out of joint.
Tigers take another hit as Nank goes down
Richmond has suffered another massive injury setback with co-captain and inspirational ruckman Toby Nankervis requiring surgery on a high-ankle sprain.
Nankervis will need syndesmosis surgery that will put him out for a minimum of six weeks, and potentially longer, after suffering the injury in the loss to the Western Bulldogs.
On a horror day for the club, Tom Lynch required surgery that will put him out for at least two months on a broken foot, and hard-running midfielder Jack Graham strained his hamstring.
Veteran defender Robbie Tarrant lasted only minutes in the VFL as he continues to battle with a recurring hip injury and bush recruit Kaelen Bradtke broke his hand.
Richmond’s back up ruckman Ivan Soldo is working back from plantar fasciitis and, while he is improving, the Tigers listed him as unavailable on their injury list last week.
Project ruckman Mate Colina is out long-term with a back injury, with Samson Ryan an impressive prospect but needed up forward given Lynch’s absence.
Ben Miller will be handed the task of leading the ruck department after 33 hitouts, 16 disposals and a goal in the VFL loss to the Bulldogs.
The injury-hit Tigers face a critical fortnight taking on Sydney and Melbourne in coming weeks as they attempt to turn around a win-loss record with one victory, one draw and two losses.
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