AFL 2022 ladder predictor: Every team’s results predicted for the next six rounds
Collingwood, Hawthorn and Adelaide have all exceeded expectations this year – but will any be in the top eight by the bye? We’ve predicted the next six rounds.
The AFL ladder is starting to take some shape, but the next six weeks will sort out the best from the rest.
We’ve taken a look at every team’s draw up until Round 12 and predicted how many games they might win from it.
Here’s the results.
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ADELAIDE
R7: GWS (H) – W
R8: Carlton (A) – L
R9: Brisbane (H) – L
R10: St Kilda (H) – L
R11: Geelong (A) – L
R12: West Coast (H) – W
CURRENT RECORD: 3-3
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 5-7
The young Crows look on the right track under coach Matthew Nicks and the return of spearhead Taylor Walker over the past three weeks has provided a significant shot in the arm. However, the next block of games won’t be easy, with four current top-eight sides to come in the next six weeks. Still, the Crows are well on track to surpass the seven wins they recorded last year.
BRISBANE
R7: Sydney (A) – L
R8: West Coast (H) – W
R9: Adelaide (A) – W
R10: Hawthorn (A) – W
R11: GWS (H) – W
R12: Fremantle (A) – L
CURRENT RECORD: 5-1
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 9-3
This weekend’s Round 7 clash with the Swans at the SCG looks a toss of the coin, with the home ground advantage perhaps tilting the odds slightly in Sydney’s favour. Four bottom-10 teams are on the cards after that, before a tough away clash with a Fremantle side that is going swimmingly in Round 12. The Lions then have a home game against St Kilda before a Round 14 bye.
CARLTON
R7: North Melbourne (H) – W
R8: Adelaide (H) – W
R9: GWS (A) – W
R10: Sydney (H) – L
R11: Collingwood (A) – W
R12: Bye
CURRENT RECORD: 4-2
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 8-3
The Blues were exposed by Fremantle in Perth on Saturday night, but have a good chance to bounce back with what should be an easy kill against a battling North Melbourne this week. Carlton has a decent recent record against Sydney, but is unlikely to enter that game as favourite in Round 10. Collingwood will be a challenge in Round 11, but victory there would put Michael Voss’ side in a prime position heading into the bye. The loss of ruckman Marc Pittonet to injury will make things harder.
COLLINGWOOD
R7: Gold Coast (H) – W
R8: Richmond (A) – W
R9: Western Bulldogs (H) – L
R10: Fremantle (A) – L
R11: Carlton (H) – L
R12: Hawthorn (A) – W
CURRENT RECORD: 3-3
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 6-6
The Pies have exceeded expectations so far and are playing a good brand of football under new coach Craig McRae. For a team that finished last season 2-7, if they can get to 6-6 or after Round 12 they would be quite happy indeed. Five of the next six games in Melbourne will help Collingwood’s cause, while they face only two current top-eight sides in Fremantle and Carlton. But there are some issues in the ruck department, with Brodie Grundy sidelined.
ESSENDON
R7: Western Bulldogs (A) – L
R8: Hawthorn (H) – L
R9: Sydney (A) – L
R10: Richmond (A) – L
R11: Port Adelaide (A) – L
R12: Bye
CURRENT RECORD: 1-5
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 1-10
The Bombers were better against Collingwood on Anzac Day, but are still far from flying. Sitting third-last on the ladder, they are one of five teams with only one game to their name after Round 6 and it would take a big turnaround to secure some more victories before the bye. The Bulldogs thumped Essendon by 49 points in their most recent encounter in last year’s elimination final and will start firm favourites this weekend. The Bombers wouldn’t be without a chance against Hawthorn, but on current form they won’t be beating Sydney at the SCG. They haven’t beaten Richmond since 2014 and have lost their past three games to Port Adelaide by at least 50 points. For a finals side last year, it is shaping as a terribly disappointing season.
FREMANTLE
R7: Geelong (A) – L
R8: North Melbourne (H) – W
R9: Gold Coast (A) – W
R10: Collingwood (H) – W
R11: Melbourne (A) – L
R12: Brisbane (H) – W
CURRENT RECORD: 5-1
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 9-3
The bolters this year, the Dockers only won 10 games last season to finish 11th on the ladder. They could well equal or eclipse that win tally before their Round 14 bye this season. Already with five wins to its name, the side is set to welcome back captain Nat Fyfe in coming weeks which should add a further boost. Away games against Geelong and Melbourne will be huge challenges, but Fremantle should win the rest on current form.
GEELONG
R7: Fremantle (H) – W
R8: GWS (A) – W
R9: St Kilda (A) – L
R10: Port Adelaide (H) – W
R11: Adelaide (H) – W
R12: Western Bulldogs (A) – W
CURRENT RECORD: 4-2
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 9-3
The Cats are tracking along quite nicely, with their power due in attack of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins sitting first and second on the Coleman Medal leaderboard. Geelong now gets three of its next six games on its home turf at GMHBA Stadium, where it has won 17 of its past 20 games. An away win over the Saints at Marvel Stadium is not out of the question, either, but St Kilda is going nicely and loves the fast track under the roof.
GOLD COAST
R7: Collingwood (A) – L
R8: Sydney (A) – L
R9: Fremantle (H) – L
R10: Western Bulldogs (A) – L
R11: Hawthorn (H) – W
R12: North Melbourne (H) – W
CURRENT RECORD: 2-4
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 4-8
The Suns started the season well enough with two wins from their first four, but have found the going tougher over the past two weeks against top sides St Kilda and Brisbane. The next four weeks does not look a lot easier, with three away games and three current top-eight sides plus the Western Bulldogs. Gold Coast would be desperate for at least a couple more wins before their Round 13 bye, with home matches against Hawthorn and North Melbourne presenting the best opportunities.
GWS
R7: Adelaide (A) – L
R8: Geelong (H) – L
R9: Carlton (H) – L
R10: West Coast (H) – W
R11: Brisbane (A) – L
R12: Bye
CURRENT RECORD: 1-5
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 2-9
It’s not going well for Leon Cameron and the Giants and it doesn’t look like getting much better anytime soon. They’ll be underdogs for an away game against an in-form Adelaide this weekend and then comes current top-eight sides Geelong and Carlton. West Coast looks like being the Giants’ best chance of snagging another win before the bye.
HAWTHORN
R7: Melbourne (A) – L
R8: Essendon (A) – W
R9: Richmond (H) – W
R10: Brisbane (H) – L
R11: Gold Coast (A) – L
R12: Collingwood (H) – L
CURRENT RECORD: 3-3
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 5-7
At their best, the Hawks are blistering. But their consistency is still just lacking a little — not just week-to-week but also quarter-to-quarter. Hawthorn was the second-last side to deny Melbourne a win as it fought out a draw with the Demons in Round 18 last year, but will be at long odds to pull off an upset this weekend. With the exception of the Brisbane game, you would give the Hawks a good chance in the rest. They’ve got four games in Melbourne and one in Tasmania, with the only true ‘away’ game being against the Suns in Darwin.
MELBOURNE
R7: Hawthorn (H) – W
R8: St Kilda (H) – W
R9: West Coast (A) – W
R10: North Melbourne (A) – W
R11: Fremantle (H) – W
R12: Sydney (H) – W
CURRENT RECORD: 6-0
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 12-0
History tells us the Demons won’t go through the season undefeated. But it’s hard to see their winning streak ending anytime soon. Five of Melbourne’s next six games are in Melbourne, with the clash against West Coast in Perth the only time the side will be travelling further than Marvel Stadium. Games against fellow top-five sides St Kilda, Fremantle and Sydney will be interesting, but you’d back in the Demons in all of them. Melbourne made a 9-0 start to last season before a slip-up against Adelaide. Can it better that streak this time around?
NORTH MELBOURNE
R7: Carlton (A) – L
R8: Fremantle (A) – L
R9: Port Adelaide (H) – L
R10: Melbourne (H) – L
R11: St Kilda (A) – L
R12: Gold Coast (A) – L
CURRENT RECORD: 1-5
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 1-11
Currently last on the ladder, the Kangaroos are a $2 favourite with bookmaker TAB to record the most losses this season. They have lost three of their past four games by 60 points or more and their only win came against West Coast in Round 2, which resembled a WAFL side due to Covid protocols. It would take something pretty special from David Noble’s side to pick up another win before Round 12, with four current top-eight sides to come in this next block of games.
PORT ADELAIDE
R7: St Kilda (A) – L
R8: Western Bulldogs (H) – L
R9: North Melbourne (A) – W
R10: Geelong (A) – L
R11: Essendon (H) – W
R12: Bye
CURRENT RECORD: 1-5
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 3-8
The Power are finally on the board after a thumping 84-point win over West Coast last week and showed some good signs in the second half against Carlton the previous week as well. However, whether the win against the confidence-sapped Eagles proves to be a turning point in Port’s season remains to be seen. The Power will be underdogs on the road against St Kilda this weekend, while an away game against Geelong will also be incredibly tough. They could beat the Bulldogs and should beat North Melbourne and Essendon. However, getting to the bye at 3-8 or 4-7 puts finals out of reach.
RICHMOND
R7: West Coast (A) – W
R8: Collingwood (H) – L
R9: Hawthorn (A) – L
R10: Essendon (H) – W
R11: Sydney (A) – L
R12: Bye
CURRENT RECORD: 2-4
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 4-7
Put simply, the Tigers are not the team they once were. The stars of many of their best players are losing their shine and the hunger to “fight and fight and win” appears to be lacking. They should get back on the winners’ board this week against a struggling West Coast, but Essendon is perhaps the only other win you could pencil in before the bye. Sitting 12th on the ladder as it stands, it’s hard to see Richmond returning to finals this year unless some drastic changes occur. If and when Dustin Martin returns — and how impactful he can be — could play a factor in that.
ST KILDA
R7: Port Adelaide (H) – W
R8: Melbourne (A) – L
R9: Geelong (H) – W
R10: Adelaide (A) – W
R11: North Melbourne (H) – W
R12: Bye
CURRENT RECORD: 5-1
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 9-2
The Saints won only 10 games last year but have already won five games this season and look like adding at least a few more to that tally before the bye. They are favourites to beat Port Adelaide in Cairns this weekend. Reigning premier Melbourne will be a tough assignment, but a win over Geelong at Marvel Stadium is a very real possibility on current form and Brett Ratten’s side shouldn’t have too much trouble overcoming Adelaide and North Melbourne. St Kilda is currently at odds of $3 with TAB to make the top-four, but you suspect that would get wound in if they get to Round 11 sitting 9-2.
SYDNEY
R7: Brisbane (H) – W
R8: Gold Coast (H) – W
R9: Essendon (H) – W
R10: Carlton (A) – W
R11: Richmond (H) – W
R12: Melbourne (A) – L
CURRENT RECORD: 5-1
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 10-2
The Swans fell to the Bulldogs in Round 3 but haven’t put a foot wrong otherwise this season and are sitting pretty inside the top-four. Having been on the road for the past two weeks, they now get four of their next five games on their home turf at the SCG — where they have won nine of their past 11 matches. The home ground advantage might just give Sydney the edge against the Lions this weekend, which would keep the momentum rolling.
WEST COAST
R7: Richmond (H) – L
R8: Brisbane (A) – L
R9: Melbourne (H) – L
R10: GWS (A) – L
R11: Western Bulldogs (H) – L
R12: Adelaide (A) – L
CURRENT RECORD: 1-5
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 1-11
It’s been an ugly start to the year for the Eagles and it’s hard to see their fortunes improving anytime soon. Confidence is low and weekly beltings are coming thick and fast. West Coast has lost three of its past four games by 55 points or more – including an 84-point loss to a previously winless Port Adelaide last weekend. The Eagles are traditionally better at home, but they have gone 0-3 at Perth Stadium this year with an average losing margin of 48 points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
R7: Essendon (H) – W
R8: Port Adelaide (A) – W
R9: Collingwood (A) – W
R10: Gold Coast (H) – W
R11: West Coast (A) – W
R12: Geelong (H) – L
CURRENT RECORD: 2-4
PREDICTED RECORD AFTER ROUND 12: 7-5
It might not be wise, but I’m keeping the faith in the Bulldogs for now. After all, they were a grand finalist last year and their personnel hasn’t really changed. The Bulldogs beat Essendon by 49 points in the elimination final last year and will be favoured to get back on the winners’ board against the Bombers this weekend. An away game against Port Adelaide will be a challenge, but the Bulldogs should be beating the likes of Collingwood, Gold Coast and a struggling West Coast in coming weeks.
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